This season is on its way to being one of the best for stolen bases in a long time. None of us were sure it would go this way. Several of the top stolen base candidates had question marks about their playing time. We had seen how fast Dee Gordon is, but could he stay in the lineup? His bat and a Cuban import had worried us. Billy Hamilton set the all-time single season SB mark for a professional with 155 in 2012 and the Reds gave him the job in center field. However, many felt he could not keep an OBP to warrant the leadoff role. The stories are about the same for Eric Young Jr., Ben Revere and Emilio Bonifacio.
With about a quarter of the season played there are 13 guys on a pace to steal more than 40 bases. Eric Young was playing the last time that 13 guys stole 40 bags in a season. No not Eric Young Jr, his dad “E.Y.” in 1993. Gordon is on a pace for just under 100 SB, but has stolen 11 bases in May already. This puts the 100 mark well within range for him. That has not been done since 1987 by Vince Coleman.
I remember when Ricky Henderson and Vince Coleman were stealing 100 bases in a season back in the 80’s. There are few players that were as exciting to watch as Ricky. He was a game changer. He is the career leader in SB with 1406 and runs with 2295. I have no doubt that he was the best leadoff man ever. As I stated earlier, Vince is the last to steal 100. That year gave him three straight years over the century mark. The only other player to do that was Billy Hamilton. No, it is not the current Billy Hamilton. It was William “Sliding Billy” Robert Hamilton from 89-91. Wait, I should put that as 1889-1891.
I love the steal, and I know there are some who think it is not worth the risk. I think that they have proven that if you can get to 80% success rate it is beneficial. 11 of the top 13 leaders in steals are above the 80% mark this year. In addition, I think that the threat of the steal causes the defense to make mistakes. I have watched several games this year where the threat of the steal has caused the pitcher, catcher, or both to make a mistake. This to me makes them even more valuable.
I think that the steal is back in vogue. Maybe not like the 1800s where 122 of the top 250 stolen base seasons occurred in MLB history. Hopefully, it is like the 1980s. The 80s had 37 of the top 250 stolen base seasons. That was a fun time to watch baseball. It was just before the Steroid era tainted baseball with too many home runs. This reduced the value of the steal. This also affected the fantasy world.
That affect has not worn off. The HR is still valued more than the SB. I have heard more than one tout suggest that many systems that set player values put too much emphasis on steals. I feel that if you build a system to value players each category should be equally weighted. Many find a way to reduce the value of steals to make straight speed guys worth less. This seems to be counterproductive. If this is the start of a period of baseball like the 1980s, those calculations will need to be adjusted. If you do not acquire one of these top guys it will be hard to make up the difference in steals they give a team. The theory of having several 20 SBs guys on your lineup will not catch a team that has a guy the steals 80 or more. The added value is that of the guys that have stolen 80 bags 52 of the 65 scored over 100 runs.
Will this turn into another golden age of the stolen base? That is the question. If it does, others will see the increase in SB totals for this season. The value for these speedsters will jump when they realize that you need these guys to compete for the SB category next year. I believe it very well be the start of another golden age of the steal. If you have a keeper/dynasty league team it is time to get ahead of the curve. Go lock up some steals.
For the latest in sports injury news, check out our friends at sports injury alert.
Thank you for reading. Please take a moment to follow me on Twitter – @Captain_LWOS. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport – and “liking” ourFacebook page.
“You like baseball? Get involved! Check out LWOS Partners Bases Loaded EU for fantastic podcasts, news and a growing message board community of baseball fans like you!”
