It’s a time for tightened belts at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have gotten off to a tepid 11-17 start, and while that may not be surprising to anyone (especially the Chicago faithful), an interesting glimmer of hope has arisen. While Starlin Castro being back to his normal self after a dismal 2013 is a good sign, there’s finally a second bat to be truly excited about in Chicago. Anthony Rizzo is fulfilling his potential.
Rizzo always looked like a blue chip prospect during his tenure in the minors, never posting an OBP below .333 and flashing double-digit homer power as he progressed. After a wildly unsuccessful stint with San Diego in 2011 and a trade to the Cubs system in exchange for Andrew Cashner, he was seasoned more at AAA and then played 87 games with the big club. He posted a .285/.342/.463 line and knocked 15 dingers in that time. Finally, here was the answer, the first sign of better times for the beleaguered Cubs. Last year, in 160 games, Rizzo hit only .233/.323/.419 with 23 home runs. The power was still there, but the OBP had fallen, while the average had plummeted. Gone was the main offensive threat, replaced by on what many teams would be a glorified 5 or 6 hole hitter.
So Cubs fans, fantasy owners and the league as a whole watched with baited breath to see if the sophomore slump was just that, a slump. Apparently it was. Over 117 plate appearances, Rizzo is batting an eye-popping .296/.421/.520 with six homers (He hit his sixth just as I had written the tally stood at five. Go figure.). That on-base percentage is good for fifth in the National League, and is tied with Matt Carpenter for the fifth most walks as well with 19. And mostly homers power his slugging percentage, as he’s only hit two doubles on the season. That number could fly even higher as the doubles start to come around. In a year in which his offensive output was nowhere near its best, Rizzo still ranked fifth in the NL with 40 doubles.
At the moment (Saturday afternoon before the Dodgers game), Rizzo is second to only Adrian Gonzalez and his nine home runs in fWAR among NL first basemen. That’s ahead of guys named Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt and a resurgent, Coors Field-fueled Justin Morneau.
The one category that seems due for regression is Rizzo’s OBP. His current .421 mark is the highest it’s ever been in his career. He’s walking in 16.5% of his at-bats, another career high. The base on balls, not hits are the clear sign of his OBP inflation, as his .315 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) isn’t all that outlandish. While it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see his walk rate fall, it also wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see pitchers work around him more as the season progresses to get to less imposing hitters in the Cubs lineup.
Rizzo has made himself a staunch presence in the middle of the Cubs order, and shows no sign of slowing down. He figures to be there for a while too. Rizzo is signed through 2019, with two $14.5 million options tacked onto the end of his contract that could keep him in red, white, and blue until 2021. That keeps him under lock and key for what could quite well be the next great Cubs team.
It’s no secret the Cubs farm is chock full of wonderful prospects. Infielder Javier Baez, third baseman Kris Bryant, pitcher CJ Edwards, outfielder Albert Almora, infielder Arismendy Alcantara, and outfielder Jorge Soler all project as above-average major league contributors, and Pierce Johnson, another pitcher, could sneak in there as well. The simply prodigious lineup the Cubs could field in a few years is terrifying.
The system could certainly stand to produce more pitching, but given that the Cubs have much deeper pockets than they let on, I expect them to sign someone like Justin Masterson or James Shields this offseason, and ship out one of their stud outfield prospects for more, as there’s been lots of talk of converting Bryant to an outfielder. Also, the Cubs signed Jason Hammel with every intention of trading him at the trade deadline, and Jeff Samardjiza may be the most-sought pitcher at that time as well. Both of those hypothetical trades would bring in even more talent, probably pitching and left-handed hitting (all of the top hitters in the Cubs system are righties, except for Rizzo and Alcantara, who can bat from both sides of the plate).
The Cubs are probably staring another 85 or 90 losses in the face this season, but fear not. Just wait ‘til next year.
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