This is the second article in the Young Guns & Cy Youngs awards race series. Last week I took a look at the early contenders for each major award. This week I’ll be starting with a deeper look at the MVP races, next week I’ll look at the Cy Young contenders and Rookie of the Year the week after.
Last week, I had Rockies teammates Troy Tulowitzki and Charlie Blackmon neck-and-neck in the NL MVP race. While Blackmon certainly hasn’t cooled off, Tulo has stepped in up, posting video game numbers through the first month of the season. The pair are still way ahead of the rest of the NL field.
Things are a little closer in the AL, where Mike Trout, in the absence of MVP race nemesis Miguel Cabrera, is in position to win the award he has so thoroughly deserved.
NL
1. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL: .385/.487/.729, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 26 R, 3.2 WAR
That batting line is not a joke. On the morning of April 18th, Tulo was hitting a fine .319/.424/.511 with 1 homer and 6 RBI. Since then, he has hit a ridiculous .449/.550/.939 with 6 home runs, 19 RBI and 15 runs scored. He has been aided significantly by the extreme hitter’s park of Coors Field, where he has gone an unbelievable .575/.640/1.025 in 12 games. Regardless, Tulo has played stellar defense (His 1.3 dWAR ranks second in the league) at a premium position and has been far and away the league’s best hitter. At 29, he certainly has the talent to run away with this award, assuming he can stay healthy. He has played 150 games just twice in his 9-year career, the last of which came in 2009.
2. Charlie Blackmon, CF, COL: .380/.420/.630, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 26 R, 7 SB, 41 H
Everyone in baseball pegged Blackmon’s 6-hit game against Arizona on April 4th as a fluke. He’s done nothing but rake ever since. Like Tulo he has a pretty extreme home-road split with a .473/.500/.893 line at Coors Field, but he nonetheless stands miles ahead of the rest of the league. He never hit for much power in the minors, but he’s 27 years old and leading off in a stellar lineup. Don’t be surprised if he stays in these rankings all season.
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD: .313/.388/.634, 9 HR, 25 RBI, 21 R
In his five years in San Diego, from 2006 t0 2010, Gonzalez averaged 32 homers per year. In the three seasons since he averaged just 22 for the Red Sox and Dodgers. That power outage could perhaps be attributed to having had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder after the 2010 season. He appears to have put that behind him, however, as he leads the NL in homers through the first month of the season. He has also brought his walk-rate back up, with 14 through 30 games, after walking fewer than 50 times in his last two years. Whether he can keep it up remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t bet against the 31-year-old slugger.
4. Chase Utley, 2B, PHI: .361/.411/.567, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 15 R, 11 2B
Like Gonzo, Utley was doing his best work in the latter part of last decade. He has been battling injuries and inconsistency since 2009, and now, at age 35, he looks poised for one last great season. His power has dropped a little, and he is no longer the defensive genius he used to be, but he’s roping doubles, barely striking out and, along with Cliff Lee, is a lone bright spot on a broken Phillies team. The season is young and Utley isn’t, making what will likely be his final run at an MVP trophy an uphill battle.
5. Justin Upton, LF, ATL: .313/.395/.616, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 17 R, 4 SB
April has been far and away Upton’s best month, when he’s hit 37 homers and stolen 18 bases with a .892 OPS in 166 career games. Such numbers are what scouts predicted the former 1st overall pick would put up annually, though 2011 aside, the young Braves leftfielder has largely failed to live up to the hype. This year’s story appears similar to last year’s, when Upton was hitting .293/.402/.734 with a whopping 12 homers through the end of April, but combined for a measly 4 homers in May, June and July. Still, he’s just 26 years old and certainly has the potential to keep this up all year.
AL
1. Mike Trout, CF, LAA: .316/.395/.579, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 21 R, 4 SB, 2.3 WAR
At an age when most players are just beginning their big league careers, Trout has already put up two more-than-MVP-worthy seasons. Indeed, were it not for Miguel Cabrera, the 22-year-old centrefielder would almost certainly have won the award the last two years. This year, with Cabrera in a month-long slump, Trout leads the AL race, putting up numbers that nearly match his career rates. It says a lot about his greatness that his April has been an average month in his career, yet he’s still been the best player in the AL.
2. Jose Bautista, RF, TOR: .297/.462/.594, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 25 R, 31 BB
Since September of 2009, Bautista has done nothing but smash home runs. He lead the AL in 2010 and 2011, when he finished fourth and third in MVP voting, and is Trout biggest challenger for the award this year. In fact, were it not for his poor defense, he would definitely be ahead of Trout in this ranking. 11 years Trout’s senior and having spent the last two seasons battling injuries, the Jays rightfielder finally looks healthy and should stay in this race all season.
3. Josh Donaldson, 3B, OAK: .280/.343/.528, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 22 R
Coming off a major breakout at age 27, regression seemed imminent for the A’s third basemen heading into the season. Donaldson has largely silenced those predictions, as he’s kept up his solid hitting and slick fielding through the season’s first month. He likely won’t lead the league in anything, but he is solid in every area of the game except speed, and sits second in the AL in WAR with 1.9. He’s been the best player on the best team in the AL; look for him to lead the A’s to October once again.
4. Alexei Ramirez, SS, CWS: .356/.379/.534, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 18R, 4 SB, 42 H
Ramirez hasn’t posted an OPS+ above league average since his rookie year in 2008. This year, however, he’s leading the AL in hits and playing good defense for a White Sox team that, while still below .500, is playing better than anyone’s expectations. Still, he hasn’t homered since April 16 and his batting average (.322) has somehow been higher than his OBP (.317) in that span. He has just five walks on the season and, unless he can keep his batting average this far above his career rate, the 32-year old will likely fall off this list.
5. Jose Abreu, 1B, CWS: .267/.331/.625, 11 HR, 31 RBI, 21 R
Abreu has been a monster in the first month of his MLB career. His 11 home runs and 33 RBIs lead the majors, making the 27-year-old Cuban defector as good as advertised. Touted as a low average, high power first baseman, Abreu has been exactly that and, along with fellow Cuban Ramirez, has led a White Sox offense that ranks first in the AL. While his low average and OBP will likely keep Abreu from winning this award, he has nonetheless been among the best players in the AL thus far and is as good a bet as any to win Rookie of the Year.
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