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3 Rounds: Jury Still Out on Colorado and Minnesota

Three games into the first-round matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild, the series remains up for grabs. Colorado currently leads 2-1, having won their two home games, and dropping Game 3 in Minnesota (in overtime). So far (with the exception of Game 3), this series has been the Nathan MacKinnon show. Colorado’s rookie sensation scored 7 points in the first 2 playoff games of his career, including a beautiful solo effort in Game 2.

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None of the games so far have really been terribly lopsided. The Wild have another home game left to tie up the series, which I would say they have a very good chance of accomplishing.

In the first installment of 3 Rounds (Avalanche-Wild edition), we looked at the wildly different approach to leadership and team dynamics used by Colorado and Minnesota. I wrote that this outcome of this series will be claimed as a victory for one of the two schools of thought on leadership in hockey.

Obviously, the Wild are using a more traditional structure in their team. Captain Mikko Koivu, now 31, has played his entire NHL career with Minnesota. He, along with Zach Parise, Ryan Suter and others, is a veteran player with some playoff experience. This core is expected to provide stability and leadership to the team’s talented young players like Charlie Coyle, or Mikael Granlund.

The Avalanche, on the other hand, are employing a less-proven approach to their team’s mentality. Gabriel Landeskog is only 21 years old, and was named captain when he was just 19. Young players like him, MacKinnon and Ryan O’Reilly form the team’s core, and thus are supposed to be the most prominent voices of the team – both in the dressing room and on the ice (Matt Duchene would also be considered one of these, but he hasn’t played this series due to a knee injury [sports injury alert]). Sure, there are some older guys (like Paul Stastny and Jan Hejda), but this team is really represented by its inexperienced stars. A lot of these players are getting their first taste of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The fact that they’re all going through this together can only bode well for Colorado, as this series is bound to help them mesh even more as a team – regardless of the outcome.

After the first two games of this series, many fans would probably have said that Colorado’s method is triumphing over Minnesota’s gritty veterans. However, the Avs really weren’t very convincing in either of their wins. They’ve been outshot in all three games (albeit not by much in the first two) – in game 3, the Wild had more than twice the number of shots Colorado did.

The Avalanche have frustrated the advanced stats community all year, posting very poor possession numbers and riding astronomical save and shooting percentages. This trend looks to have continued in the playoffs. Their Corsi was just about on par with that of Minnesota in Game 1, before it began to decline. Colorado slightly lost the Corsi battle in Game 2, and then were utterly dominated in Game 3 (they only had 30% of the shot attempts in that game).

So, it remains to be seen whether or not Colorado can sustain their success. They’ll need their top line of Landeskog, Stastny and MacKinnon to continue being one of the hottest lines in hockey. It’s also crucial that goalie Semyon Varlamov continues his stellar play. Despite some unconvincing performances, I still have confidence in the Avalanche, and am very much willing to stick by my prediction from the start of the series (Avs in six). I expect the remaining two to four games between Coloroado and Minnesota to be high scoring and fast-paced – which is an advantage for the Avalanche.

 

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