The dust has just settled after the fourth round of the 2014 Formula One World Championship, a good time to look at what we have learnt from these first few races of the new era of Formula One, with turbos back, energy recovery and crucially, less downforce. After winter testing it is no surprise to see Mercedes take four straight wins and it is great to see Williams back near the front too. What has been a surprise is the effect the new rules have had on the four time World Champion Sebastian Vettel.
After the first race in Melbourne, many were saying his new team mate Daniel Ricciardo was a revelation, but we knew he was quick, that is why why Red Bull hired him. He qualified second, splitting the Mercedes whilst Vettel was out in Q2 in thirteenth. Malaysia saw Vettel back in front, not by much. Was Melbourne just a bad weekend for Vettel, one to forget? One week later in Bahrain, Sebastian Vettel was asked to let Daniel through, because the Australian was quicker. Melbourne it would appear was just the beginning.
What has happened to Sebastian Vettel? The simple answer is he does not trust the rear end of the Red Bull RB10. Over the last four years, with four World Championships, he had become the master of the blown diffuser era, and no one understood and developed this generation of car more than Red Bull. Vettel adapted his driving to suit, he had complete faith in the downforce generated, even on cold tyres, he would be devastating in the first few laps of a Grand Prix and the last half of 2013 saw him dominate; it was his time.
In Bahrain, but for his ten place grid penalty, Ricciardo would have qualified third, Vettel eleventh. In practice Vettel spun and when Vettel was overtaken by his team mate in the race itself, he complained of a lack of straight line speed but the truth was his team mate was running a different set-up with less downforce, Vettel running with more downforce to compensate for the now missing blown diffuser, the downforce it gave and the belief. Although some of this is Vettel getting used to far less downforce from an exhaust blown diffuser, it can also be said that Ricciado by comparison is probably more accustomed to a little less downforce. In the previous years the Toro Rosso was certainly no match for the Red Bull so he is not having to adapt to losing so much downforce. Alonso, Hamilton and Rosberg seem to have picked up from where they left off last year.
The frustration is growing in Vettel and it is becoming ever more public, again in China, for the second race running Seb was asked to let Daniel through, his response this time was “tough luck” until the team told him of the different strategies they were on. Was this a situation that was becoming public and needed to be carefully managed? The last thing Red Bull would want is another Multi 21 after just four races. By the end of the race Daniel was threatening Alonso’s podium, Vettel was 20 seconds adrift, struggling with tyre degradation to a far greater extent than his team mate.
With a three week gap now until Spain, the dust may well have settled in China, but not at Red Bull. Even if they do claw some downforce back, not only will Vettel appreciate that, so will his new team mate, if he is this quick now, he would still be comfortable running less downforce than Vettel, negating any lack of horsepower to Mercedes.There have been times when the likes of McLaren and Ferrari have enjoyed long spells of success, what we may be about to see however is just how great Sebastian Vettel is. The rules have changed for everyone, how many changes of rules has Alonso for example adapted to? Can Vettel be truly classed as a great? This year may well answer that question. We cannot doubt his skill and I for one was not “bored” by his run of eight wins last year; it was a remarkable achievement by team and driver. The big question is how much was car, how much was driver, and can Sebastian Vettel adapt to F1 2014?
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