The battle for the Larry O’Brien Trophy begins on Saturday. To get you ready for the first round matchups, here is your Western Conference preview.
San Antonio Spurs (1) VS Dallas Mavericks (8)
Season Series (Spurs lead 4-0)
Why the Spurs will win:
The Spurs swept the season series against the Mavericks by an average of 11.5 points. San Antonio finished the season ranked 6th overall in points per game, and with the Mavericks sitting 20th in points allowed this season, the Spurs should be able to get whatever they want on offense. The Spurs navigated the regular season to perfection and now have a healthy, well rested team ready for the playoff run.
Why the Mavericks will win:
We know Dirk Nowitzki will show up in this series; however the only chance for the Mavericks to upset the Spurs is the play of Monta Ellis. Ellis is averaging 19 points per game this season, but is the type of player that could score 30 at any given time. If he is able to emerge as the sure fire wingman for Dirk, and perform every night, then Mavericks may make this interesting.
Prediction: With Popovich behind the bench and a healthy Spurs line-up, it will be tough for the Mavericks to move on. San Antonio ranks in the top ten for points, points allowed and are first in assists per game. Dallas has a couple players who could win them a game or two, but overall the Spurs are just too good a team. Duncan and Co. move on in 5.
Oklahoma City Thunder (2) VS Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Season Series (Thunder lead 3-1)
Why the Thunder will win:
The Oklahoma City Thunder score 106.2 points per night, and with a healthy Russell Westbrook they really look like a team gearing up for a Championship run. The two best players in this series are on the Thunder’s roster and the fact that the Thunder are now a seasoned playoff team, OKC should prevail with a fair amount of ease.
Why the Grizzlies will win:
Memphis hangs their hat on defense. They are ranked 3rd in points allowed and with Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince, they may be able to neutralize Durant and Westbrook. Randolph and Gasol need to be the two best big game every game if Memphis wants to pull out the upset.
Prediction: This series is should not get past five games. After The Grizzlies starting unit, there is a big drop off in talent. OKC has a deeper team with Butler, Collison, Jackson and Fisher coming off the bench, which should ensure OKC wins this series in 4.
Los Angeles Clippers (3) VS Golden State Warriors (6)
Season Series (Series Tied 2-2)
Why the Clippers will win:
The Clippers are the highest scoring team in the NBA (107.9 PPG) and with Andrew Bogut likely out for the playoffs with a fractured rib, the Warriors lack of inside presence will allow Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to do some damage against David Lee and the Warriors front line.
Why the Warriors will win:
The Golden State Warriors appear to the sleeper pick in the Western Conference. Curry, Thompson, David Lee can all score with ease, and when you throw in Iguodala on the defensive end, they have all pieces to upset the Clippers. Although the Bogut injury may hurt, the Warriors now be able to go small and play the style of game that will turn this series into a shoot out. If that happens, the Warriors have a shot.
Prediction: For me this series is a coin flip. I believe this series it will be a shootout, with a couple overtime games thrown in, making this the matchup to watch in the first round. I’m going to give the edge to the Clippers; they have the best point guard in the NBA and having Blake Griffin emerge as a top ten player this season, LA will pull this one out in an exciting 7 games.
Houston Rockets (4) VS Portland Trailblazers (5)
Season Series (Rockets lead 3-1)
Why the Rockets will win:
The Rockets are arguably the most well rounded team in the West. They have the star player in Harden, the perimeter defender in Beverly, the defensive stopper in Howard, and the outside shooting of Parsons. In the four games this season Harden and Howard have combined for an average of 55.75 PPG against the Blazers, and that should continue in the opening round.
Why the Blazers will win:
This season Portland is 4th in scoring, 1st in rebounds, but rank 22nd in points allowed. If the Blazers are able to sure up the defensive end, then they should be able to slip past the Rockets. Lillard has emerged has a player who can take over a game, and could be the X-Factor in this series.
Prediction: Another series that will likely go seven games, the Rockets combination of Howard and Harden should prevail. Throw in the fact that Beverly will be harassing Lillard in every game, the Rockets will pull this one out in 7.
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