3 Rounds is a three-part series. Writers select what they feel is the most important individual match-up in the upcoming playoff series and give it an in-depth preview. The second piece is a mid-series assessment of that match-up. In the final installment, we analyze how the match-up contributed to the outcome of the series. If our match-up isn’t the difference-maker, we’ll explore the match-up that DID make the difference.
On paper, there doesn’t appear to be a more lop-sided series heading into the 2014 NHL playoffs. Since the 2006-07 season, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been an elite team, winning 51 playoff games and the Stanley Cup in 2009. Conversely, the Columbus Blue Jackets are making just their second playoff appearance in franchise history and have yet to taste a post-season victory.
This season, Pittsburgh was again one of the top teams in the East, winning the inaugural Metropolitan division title, while Columbus just managed to snatch the 7th seed thanks to some timely wins combined with the collapse of other teams in the playoff race.
The season series between the two teams was likewise lop-sided, with the Penguins winning all five games. Pittsburgh, if you can believe it, spent only 56 seconds of those five games trailing the Blue Jackets. The Penguins have better offense, better defense, better special teams and tons of experience as compared to Columbus. On paper, this series should be dominated by the Pens.
So, with two teams so unevenly matched, this opening round should be just another ho-hum, warm-up type series for the Penguins as they attempt to make another Cup run, right? Not so fast. Ask any Pittsburgh Penguins fan, and they’ll tell you that things are never so easy, especially given some rather quizzical performances by their team in recent playoff seasons. What this series will come down to, as it always does, is goaltending.
Marc-Andre Fleury vs. Sergei Bobrovsky
This article could probably be sub-headed as “The Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Themselves”, but we’ll go with the goalies. You’ll notice for all the advantages that Pittsburgh has over Columbus, goaltending was not mentioned as one of them. True, the Penguins do have the edge in team goals against per game (2.49 to 2.61), but that doesn’t necessarily mean they have the better goaltenders.
Fleury’s playoff resume is well known. It could be argued that he’s only had one competent post-season in his career, and that was six years ago when he helped carry Pittsburgh to its first final against Detroit (which they lost). Even when the Penguins won the Cup the next season, it was more despite Fleury, and not thanks to him (he posted a 2.61 goals against average and a .908 save percentage that year).
In more recent seasons, his meltdowns have been legendary. Last season he was replaced by Tomas Vokoun after an embarrassing 6-4 loss to the New York Islanders in the first round and only played another 43:24 afterwards before the Penguins ultimately fell to the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference Final.
The 2012 playoff may have been even worse for Fleury, when he allowed 26 goals in a six game, opening round loss to Philadelphia. In fact, he hasn’t recorded a save percentage above .899 in the last four post-seasons, and this year it doesn’t appear as though Vokoun will be able to swoop in and take over for Fleury should he falter; the Penguins hopes fall entirely upon Fleury’s unsteady shoulders.
For all his regular season success and guady win totals, Fleury’s career, legacy and possibly even his future with the team will be judged by how he performs this post-season. It’s not outlandish to suggest that this may be the most pressure Fleury has ever faced.
The story between the pipes in Columbus is much different. Bobrovksy has been a revelation since coming over to the Jackets from the Flyers two seasons ago. Last year, he won the Vezina trophy as the top goalie in the NHL, with a sparkling 2.00 goals against average and a .932 save percentage.
This year, despite some early struggles, has been nearly as good for the 25-year-old Russian. He played very strong down the stretch, allowing more than three goals only once in his final 16 appearances, while picking up three shutouts over that same span. Nine of those 16 games were wins.
For comparison’s sake, Fleury has allowed more than three goals in four of his last 12 appearances, while picking up only 5 wins over that stretch. Those aren’t exactly numbers you want from your starting goaltender heading into the playoffs.
So, given all this history, it seems that one goaltender is clearly above the other as this first round series is set to begin. However, one very pertinent questions remains: how will Bobrovsky perform in the playoffs for Columbus, particularly against this vaunted Pittsburgh offense? It’s worth noting that in those five losses to the Penguins this year, Bobrovsky was only in net for one of them (though he allowed three goals on only 13 shots before getting the hook).
In Bobrovksy’s brief playoff history with Philadelphia, he’s not played very well but that could be just as much a factor of the team in front of him as his own personal performance. In his only playoff appearance against the Penguins as a Flyer, Bobrovksy allowed five goals on 18 shots in relief of Ilya Bryzgalov during game four in 2012. In his career, Bobrovksy sports a 5-4-1 record against the Penguins, with a .900 save percentage (with all but one of those games as a Flyer). However, the difference between the defensive corps and systems in Philadelphia and Columbus can’t be understated, so those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.
Marc-Andre Fleury is a known commodity. You know he’s struggled mightily in the playoffs, but you also know he has the skill and potential to turn it around. With Bobrovsky on the other hand, you’re getting a top-flight regular season NHL goalie who has yet to be tested between the pipes in the post-season for the Blue Jackets. The battle between these two men may decide the fate of both clubs in the opening round.
Series Predictions From Our Hockey Department:
Max Vasilyev (93% correct last year): Penguins in Five Games.
Mitchell Tierney (64% correct last year): Penguins in Six Games.
Ben Kerr (57% correct last year): Columbus in Six Games.
Russel Mackenzie (57% correct last year): Columbus in Seven Games.
Aaron Wrotkowski: Columbus in Six Games.
Ken Hill: Penguins in Five Games.
Dan Rocchi: Penguins in Five Games.
Jacob Cohen: Penguins in Seven Games.
Charlie Clarke: Columbus in Seven Games.
Shawn Wilken: Penguins in Five Games.
Cristiano Simonetta: Penguins in Six Games.
Thank you for reading. Please take a moment to follow me on Twitter – @LWOSpuckhead. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter –@LastWordOnSport – and “liking” our Facebook page.
photo credit: wstera2 via photopin cc
