Yes, there have already been a few small clay tournaments.
Yes, we’ve seen Andrea Petkovic pull off a great effort to win a Premier title in Charleston.
So you may say the Clay Season is already under way.
However, to me, it just doesn’t feel like the Road to Roland Garros has begun until the Monte Carlo Rolex Masters take place in Monte Carlo, Monaco. Something about this event just says, “Here we go, red dirt.”
Many players, including Novak Djokovic, make their home base here and you get the sense everyone really enjoys these courts.
With that said, let’s get to work on breaking down each quarter of the draw.
Nadal Quarter
Rafael Nadal doesn’t live in Monte Carlo, but we may as well call this tournament (as well as most other red clay events) his home. Nadal has 8 titles here, and had a 46-match win streak on these courts snapped in last year’s final to Novak Djokovic.
While Rafa is an overwhelming favorite in this quarter, there are some interestingly dangerous players in his section of the draw.
In the second round, he’ll face either Gilles Simon or a qualifier. I don’t expect a challenge here.
Next, he could face a variety of players, but the one I’d peg to possibly pose a challenge to Nadal is Pablo Andujar. Earlier this year, the two met in the Rio Open semifinals, a 500-level tournament on clay. Nadal came out on top 7-6(10) in the third, and even had to save a match-point. This could be another fun one if they meet, but I’d definitely expect Rafa to come out on top.
Nadal’s quarterfinal opponent will most likely be David Ferrer, in a rematch of the 2013 French Open final. I’d definitely predict we get that matchup, but keep an eye on Grigor Dimitrov in Ferrer’s section as well. He beat Ferrer to win his first title in Stockholm late last year, and pushed Nadal to four sets in this year’s Australian Open quarterfinal.
Grigor Dimitrov and Marcel Granollers is the best first round match in this section.
Wawrinka Quarter
Stan Wawrinka goes into the clay season hanging on to his number three ranking, but is defending a fair amount of points in the next month and a half.
Wawrinka has by far the most difficult second-round opponent of the top four seeds, in the winner of Marin Cilic or Fernando Verdasco. Stan could then face a great clay-courter in Nico Almagro, followed by Milos Raonic or Tommy Robredo. All of these players are more than competent on clay, and it would be a great result for Wawrinka to make it through to the semis here.
My first round match to see is definitely Marin Cilic and Fernando Verdasco. Two big forehands there.
Federer Quarter
Roger Federer has finally returned to Monte Carlo. He missed both the 2012 and 2013 editions of the tournament, and will look to gain valuable points here in order to stay in the top four or even pass his compatriot Stan Wawrinka for the third spot.
I will say, there’s been some speculation from fans and media alike as to why Federer is playing this event. While some say it’s just a sign of confidence, the rumors are that Roger’s wife Mirka is due to give birth around the time of the Rome Masters event. Federer is defending 600 finalist points there, so it would make sense to try and make up for the presumable loss of those by playing this week.
Federer will first face the winner of Radek Stepanek and Ivo Karlovic, followed by a possible meeting with Jerzy Janowicz. On this surface, I simply don’t see a challenge against an in form Federer from any player from that section.
After Richard Gasquet withdrew this morning with an ongoing back issue, the draw was reshuffled. This moved Jo-Wilfried Tsonga into his spot, who is now Federer’s slated quarterfinal opponent. However, I don’t consider Tsonga the favorite to make it to this stage. One of the best clay-courters in the game is in his section in Fabio Fognini. Fognini just beat Andy Murray handily in a Davis Cup rubber on clay, and is looking in great form. Expect a fun one there, if Tsonga can hold up.
I’m going to ride with my gut and say Fognini makes some big noise this week on his favorite surface.
There isn’t really a must see first round match in this section, but the other rounds could set up for some fun tennis if things go right.
Djokovic Quarter
Last year, Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal to take this tournament, which led many to believe he would finally get his French Open title that year.
However, a year later and here we are, wondering once again if he can finally take the next step.
A title here would give a nice spark of confidence to Djokovic, especially after the thorough beat down he delivered to Rafa in the Sony Open final.
Novak opens with either Benoit Paire or a qualifier, and could then face a pretty good clay-courter in Gael Monfils. In the quarterfinal, Djokovic might face one of a few players who are very in-form this season in Berdych, Gulbis, or Dolgopolov. While they’re all good clay-court players, I don’t think any one of them will challenge Novak in one of his favorite tournaments.
The first round match I’ll definitely be watching Alex Dolgopolov against Ernests Gulbis. That’ll be a cracker.
Wrap-Up
Monte Carlo is always a good litmus test to what kind of form the top men are in heading into the thick of the clay season.
Can Novak finally win the big one? Will Wawrinka live up to his current ranking?
Many questions will be answered in the next month, but you have to start somewhere.
Like I said, clay season really begins in one place: Monte Carlo.
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