Joshua Woody had a thing or two to say about my National League predictions. So I have a thing or two to say about his AL Predictions. Josh’s picks are in parentheses.
Best Bullpen – Boston Red Sox (Kansas City Royals)
The Royals are probably the smart pick here. Everyone knows how unhittable they were last year, the sheer quantity of 100 mph fastballs coming out of that bullpen. But last year’s Royals relievers were almost too good, and now Luke Hocheaver, who finally found his niche as a setup man, is out for the year. Would anyone really be surprised if they fell back to Earth a bit?
I certainly wouldn’t be. Enter the Boston Red Sox. The back of the Boston bullpen was phenomenal last year. Koji Uehara, Craig Breslow and Junichi Tazawa all pitched out of their minds, allowing respective WHIP marks of 0.565, 1.123 and 1.20, and Brandon Workman provided an interesting long relief/swingman option at the end of the season.
Apparently GM Ben Cherington wasn’t satisfied. Edward Mujica, part of last year’s electric Cardinals relief core, was brought in on a three-year deal. Burke Badenhop was acquired from the Brewers. And Chris Capuano will allow Workman to move into middle relief with the once heralded Andrew Miller, who still shows flashes of brilliance at times. The Boston pen is going to be a very scary group to be staring in the face late in games, AL East beware.
Best Rotation – Tampa Bay Rays (Rays)
This, admittedly, is once again not the safe choice, but I agree with Josh. It’s very difficult to pick against the Detroit Tigers, who can lay claim to a staff headed by two Cy Young winners in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and the man who lead the AL in ERA last year in Anibal Sanchez. However, it’s the back of their staff that worries me. Rick Porcello has been tabbed for breakout the past few years, and it’s never happened. Also, Drew Smyly now occupies a slot in the rotation after GM Dave Dombrowski suddenly shipped out the ever-reliable Doug Fister to Washington.
So while The Tigers could very easily keep on trucking, I’m looking to the Rays to step in to fill the void. Everyone knows what David Price brings to the table, a live arm that won him a Cy Young in 2012, and Alex Cobb and his 2.76 ERA last year (which includes him coming back from being struck in the head by a line drive) may find himself in the conversation soon as well. Matt Moore and recent extension beneficiary Chris Archer slot in behind them, with top prospect Jake Oddrizzi filling the fifth spot in the rotation, until Jeremy Hellickson returns from injury.
MVP – Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Wil Myers, Rays)
Myers is certainly an inspired choice, and not as outlandish as it could potentially seem. However, I think Josh’s fondness for the Rays is really showing here.
Is there honestly a choice besides Mike Trout here, the man who’s accumulated over 20 WAR in his first two seasons? The best player in baseball has this award under lock and key. Trout’s seen this award slip through his fingers in the past two season to Miguel Cabrera, mostly because his team has failed to make the playoffs. This year could be different. The AL West is up for grabs this year, with the Rangers wracked by injury, the Mariners possibly finally seeing Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak fulfill their promise (these first few games have been encouraging), and the A’s as strong as ever, and even stronger once players such as Craig Gentry, Ryan Cook, Eric O’Flaherty and AJ Griffin return. The Astros, while not contenders yet, will not be pushovers.
And the Angels? Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols look to be back to fighting form. Tyler Skaggs was impressive in his LA debut. Garrett Richards could stabilize the rotation in the middle. Joe Blanton is no longer on the roster. If there’s a team that could rise above the dogfight that is the AL West, the Angels are it. Which could mean Mike Trout is finally king.
Cy Young – Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (Hernandez)
Felix has looked positively disgusting in his first two starts, it’s vintage King stuff he’s throwing out there. As we all know, Cy Young voters like to see a good win total unless your other numbers are simply too incredible to ignore (see: Hernandez’s first Cy Young win).
Well this year, Felix should have both. The Mariners look stacked early on, with as mentioned before Ackley and Smoak tearing the cover off the ball (small sample sizes, I know), Brad Miller and Kyle Seager doing their thing, and I heard that Robinson Cano fellow is pretty good too.
Felix himself will have his usual strikeout per 9 IP, ERA and WHIP tendencies (8.9, 3.19 and 1.20 career marks in each category), and that should carry him to a win. I also tried to find just one of his nasty pitches to show you, but I realized they they’re all simply too good,
so here’s his pitchergifs.com page. Wowzers.
Rookie of the Year – George Springer, Houston Astros (Nick Castellanos, Tigers)
Castellanos absolutely tore up the minors, however from watching him hit I think while he’ll be reasonably productive this season, I think he may need a year to adjust to big league pitching. Having guys such as Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, James Shields and Danny Salazar in his division will certainly help with that.
But let’s talk about Springer. He was two homers shy of a 20-20 season at AAA last year, cut his 30% K rate from AA down to 24%, and improved his K/BB rate from .24 at AA in 2012, .44 at AA in 2013, and then .63 when he reached AA. And he hit .311 at AAA.
He’ll be up in June, and he’ll claim the outfield spot he was so publicly denied in Spring Training. Look out.
Manager of the Year – Llyod McClendon, Seattle Mariners (Ned Yost, Kansas City Royals)
I’m going with a different team improvement winner here, purely because everyone and their grandmother knows that the Royals will be good this year, and the Mariners were less of a sure thing. I’m just so damn impressed with the Mariners this early on. Is that McClendon’s doing, or did certain players just start playing well? Who knows, and frankly such things don’t truly matter a ton. Actual managing isn’t a massive factor when these awards are voted for. Case in point: last year’s AL Manager race. Let me start by saying that yes, Terry Francona is one hell of a manager. He created a fabulous culture in the Cleveland clubhouse and brought them to October. However, Joe Girardi practically turned water into wine with last year’s scrapheap Yankees, and received no recognition for it. That’s the way the cookie crumbles.
Most Disappointing Team – Texas Rangers (Detroit Tigers)
Is this a fair pick? Because the disappointment’s sort of already happened, but I think it’s going to get much worse than people realize.
How can a team that includes Yu Darvish, Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus disappoint? Well it can start by losing Jurickson Profar, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, and Geovany Soto. And it can also have an important pitching piece in Neftali Feliz absolutely tank and start the year in AAA.
The Rangers are going to lose a lot of games early on due to these injuries. I’m not talking crash-and-burn, but think last year’s Yankees without the magic. And even when pitchers Holland and Harrison return, there’s no guarantee that they’ll be at 100% and pitch like their usual selves.
On the hitting side of things, Choo just simply can’t maintain his ungodly OBP from last year. His inability to hit lefties is bound to catch up with him (he hit .215 against southpaws last year, with a .612 OPS), and when things start to look bad, Profar may get a look at the leadoff spot… if he comes back from his shoulder injury in time and is fully healthy.
WAR Leader not named Mike Trout – Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners (Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays)
Am I seriously betting against the 300 Million Dollar Man? You bet your buns I am especially since Cano already outranked Cabrera last year. Cano put up 7.6 WAR, Cabrera 7.5.
Cabrera has to come down to Earth at some point, right? Well this is the year. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll still be a top five hitter, but that hip injury from the end of last season worries me. Cabrera will be entering his age 31 season, and while he won’t be as much of a defensive liability at first as he was at third, he’s still a one-way player. And one who will start declining at some point soon.
In terms of Longoria, there’s no denying his prowess. Longoria ranked fifth in the AL among position players, eighth when pitchers were included. But forecasting him to rank ahead of both Cano and Cabrera is a bit of a stretch for me. Longoria posted a 6.7 mark, .8 points behind Cabrera’s 7.5.
Cano, however, is going to keep on being Cano. The only part of his game that may change is he will probably hit fewer home runs due to his move to the deep confines of Safeco Field, as well as a few parks in his division (Oakland, L.A.) being more pitcher-friendly confines rather than the slugger’s fantasy that the AL East is. However, Cano is a smart hitter, and will adapt to this new obstacle.
He would have already held the distinction of being second to Trout last year if it hadn’t been for Josh Donaldson coming out of nowhere to tear the league up. While I expect Donaldson to keep being a top-flight player, I think he played to his ceiling last year and will regress a bit this season. Rather than an 8.0 mark, I expect more of a 7-7.2 season from the Oakland third baseman.
World Series Bound – Tampa Bay Rays (Rays)
I’ll indulge Josh here, and agree with him that the Rays will head to the World Series to face the Nationals. Like the Nats, the Rays are good in every aspect. They hit well, they pitch exceptionally well, they have a deep bench, and they’re incredibly defensively sound. They also have the best manager in the game in mad scientist Joe Maddon, the granddaddy of defensive shifts and lineup stacking. A full season of Wil Myers will also benefit them greatly, as he provides the second big bat behind Longiria that the Rays have needed so desperately. If Longoria stays healthy and Myers keeps producing, the pitching and defense will take care of itself.
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