Last week, Joshua Woody brought you his predictions for the American League. Today, here’s my take on the National League Predictions.
Best Bullpen – Los Angeles Dodgers.
The amount of depth in the LA pen is astounding. Right off the bat, three of their pitchers relievers (Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, and Brandon League) have closing experience, with Kenley Jansen doing his best Mariano Rivera impression closing games with the newly minted best cutter in baseball. They brought in Jamey Wright after he had a good season with the Rays (to replace Ronald Bellisario), who compliments Paco Rodriguez and JP Howell. While League isn’t exactly the best reliever in the world at the moment, all of the other guys have nasty stuff and should be able to shut down games.
Best Rotation – Washington Nationals
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It’s very hard to argue with a rotation composed of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and either Tanner Roark or Taylor Jordan in the fifth slot. Ross Detwiler, who occupied that role in years past, will work out of the bullpen. Manager Matt Williams was expected to announce his choice of either Roark or Jordan when Fister strained his lat, and was placed on the DL. Now Roark and Jordan will get to compete for the job against in a trial by fire, and the winner will retain his spot when Fister returns.
However, this group is obscenely talented. Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmermann would all be the 1 on most teams, and Fister has the ceiling of a strong 2. ZiPS projects the following WHIPs for the first four; 1.08, 1.22, 1.14, and 1.15.
That’s obscene. It’s flat-out disgusting. The Nats could stick Bryce Harper in the fifth starting slot and still have a top-flight rotation.
MVP – Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks.
There are a few major candidates for this award; Andrew McCutchen, Yadier Molina, David Wright, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Hanley Ramirez, and Goldschmidt. My money’s on Goldschmidt.
I see the Diamondbacks finishing stronger than the 81-81 record they’ve stagnated at over the past two years, despite losing Patrick Corbin and adding Mark Trumbo’s “defense.” Archie Bradley should be up sooner rather than later to bolster the rotation, and Martin Prado and Miguel Montero will rebound from offensive down years.
What does this have to do with Goldschmidt? Well, when a team makes progress (and possibly the playoffs), the best player on the team gets a lot of consideration for MVP. Goldschmidt is not only the best player on the team, but one of the best in all of baseball. Last year he hit to the tune of .302/401/.551, with 36 homers, 15 stolen bases, and accumulated 7.3 bWAR (6.4 fWAR, for those of you who prefer the Fangraphs method). That’s nuts, especially the fifteen steals as a first baseman.
I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Goldschmidt yet. He’s still getting better and better, and at age 26 is just entering his prime. The NL West is quaking in its collective boots.
Cy Young – Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals.
Let me start off by saying that picking card-carrying Best Pitcher on Earth ™ Clayton Kershaw would be, frankly, boring. Also, his shoulder injury to open the season gives me a decent enough reason to forecast some falling back down to Earth for Kershaw.
So if not Kershaw, who? Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright presents what is probably the next safest choice. Wainwright is an old-fashioned power workhorse, a textbook #1. His fastball sits between 91 and 92 MPH, with his sinker being just under that. He also employs a cutter, a changeup and what may be his most effective pitch in his curve. The pitch is the stuff of legends, rivaled only by Kershaw’s. All Mets fans remember the pitch that struck out Carlos Beltran to end the Amazin’s playoff run in 2006. The pitch has only gotten filthier since then.
Perhaps one of the best factors in Wainwright’s favor is that he pitches for a good team, and therefore will have a good win-loss record. While pitcher wins are a truly awful statistic to judge quality by, the simple fact of the matter is that Cy Young voters still like to look to Wins, which Wainwright led the NL in (tied with Jordan Zimmermann at 19). Wainwright was also seventh in WHIP, and was second in walks allowed per nine innings. He’ll continue that production this year, and defeat possibly more deserving candidates such as Jose Fernandez of the Miami Marlins for the award.
Rookie of the Year – Mike Olt, Chicago Cubs.
Mike Olt’s Spring Training triple slash: .276/.317/.569. BaseballReference says he faced opposition on the mound that rated at 9.1, one full slot over AAA quality. His AAA numbers are poor due to eye problems that have since been righted, but let’s check out his AA numbers from 2012: .288/.398/.579, with 28 home runs in 95 games. The kid is talented, talented enough to make the big league club out of camp. Jon Daniels has said that the trade that sent Olt and pitching prospect CJ Edwards to Chicago in exchange for a half season of Matt Garza is his biggest regret, and it’s easy to see why.
Manager of the Year – Ron Roenicke, Milwaukee Brewers.
Sometimes this award goes to a manager who is legitimately the best at his job that year (see: any time Joe Maddon wins, Joe Girardi’s win). Then there are times that a team does better than the pundits expect. Enter the 2014 Brewers.
They’ve added Matt Garza. Aramis Ramirez is healthy. Ryan Braun is no longer in baseball jail. Scooter Gennett looks to provide improved production at second in place of Rickie Weeks. They should win plenty more games than last year, and may even contend for a Wild Card. That bodes well for manager Ron Roenicke, whose potent offense (Braun, Ramierz, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, Jean Segura, Khris Davis) and serviceable pitching staff should carry the team to around third place.
Most disappointing team – Cincinnati Reds.
That doesn’t bode well for the Reds, who were last year’s third place team in the NL Central at 90-72. Since the end of the season, the Reds have lost Shin-Soo Chooand his .423 OBP and Ryan Hanigan to other teams, and currently have Aroldis Chapman, Mat Latos, Devin Mesoraco, Jonathon Broxton, Sean Marshall, Skip Schumaker, Brett Marshall, and Jack Hannahan on the DL.
Even before the slew of injuries, the Reds were going to have problems. Billy Hamilton has replaced Choo as the leadoff man, and despite having all the speed in the world, has an abysmally hard time getting on base. Starter Tony Cingrani throws a fastball about 80% of the time, and will be hard-pressed to find success that way in today’s scouting-intensive environment. Ryan Ludwick is getting old and has only hit over .240 once in the past six years, with OBPs over .310 only twice in that span.
But now, the Reds are going to lose an awful lot of games to start the season while waiting for those players to return from injury, and trying to find a leadoff candidate when Hamilton fails to produce. JJ Hoover has also now found himself thrust into a closer’s role, and a bullpen that was once a position of depth and strength will now be stretched thin. While an offensive core of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier is nothing to sneeze at, and the starting rotation should be fairly strong as usual, I see the Reds falling into a win total in the low eighties and missing the playoffs.
WAR Leader – David Wright, New York Mets.
In an injury-shortened season last year, David Wright accumulated 5.8 WAR in 112 games. We all know how strong a player Wright is, playing excellent defense at the hot corner while swinging a mighty bat. Wright will be playing with a slightly more potent offense around him and better protection behind him in the form of Curtis Granderson, and should see better pitches. He put up a 7.0 bWAR mark in 2012, and shows no signs of slowing down.
World Series Bound – Washington Nationals.
They are, for all intents and purposes, the most complete team in baseball. The Cardinals may have a stake at that claim if it were not for their bench, highlighted by half-baked players such as Daniel Descalso, Jon Jay and Pete Kozma. The Nationals, on the other hand, have a fourth outfielder in Nate McLouth who was worth nearly two wins, and Danny Espinosa who’s a starter on some teams.
I’ve already covered the quality of the Washington rotation. Their offense too is potent, headlined by Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond and Wilson Ramos, who should be back in the lineup in four to six weeks. At that time Jose Lobaton will go back to being one of the better backup catchers in the game.
Their bullpen is equally deep. Rafael Soriano closes games with support from strong pitchers such as Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Jerry Blevins, Craig Stammen, and Ross Detwiller, who used to hold a spot in the rotation and will surely be an excellent swingman.
The Nationals are simply too good, and should easily run away with the NL East before using their depth to duke it out in the postseason.
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