I typically attempt to stay away from doing prediction blogs, however opening day is a mere weekend away and everybody and their mother is dropping some sort of prediction about the upcoming year so I figured I should chime in with my own outlook and American League predictions for the upcoming year. My version will be a little different than most. I won’t simply pick division winners but I want to dive in a little deeper into specific parts and groups of the American League.
Best Bullpen – Kansas City Roy
als.
The Royals had the best bullpen in baseball last year and I firmly believe it carries over to this year as well. They did lose Luke Hochevar for the year due to injury but they will be fine. Last year, the top seven relievers that the Royals used out of the bullpen all posted ERA totals south of 3.0. That is fantastic. Greg Holland is an elite closer and having flame thrower Kelvin Herrera and set up men Aaron Crow and Tim Collins, the Royals are in line to repeat as the best bullpen in the American League again.
Best Rotation – Tampa Bay Rays.
You can try to argue it all you want but on paper and with the eye ball test, you will be hard pressed to find a better rotation than the Tampa Bay Rays. The Detroit Tigers are close but based on the terrible spring that Rick Porcello has had and the question marks surrounding fifth starter Drew Smyly entering his first season as a starter, I have to give the nod to the Rays. David Price is an ace in a contract year, Alex Cobb was the best pitcher in baseball the last 10 starts of the 2013 season, Chris Archer has the mental make up of a ten year vet, throw in Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi (who is holding Jeremy Hellickson’s spot while he is injured) and these five combine for the best rotation in the American League and will be the reason the Rays win the American League East.
MVP – Wil Myers, Tampa Bay Rays.
Don’t spit out your coffee over your computer while reading that, I am dead serious. Wil Myers posted some serious numbers in limited time last year – .293/.354/.478 slash line , 131 wRC+, 53 RBI, 13 HR and a WAR of 2.4 in only 88 major league games is very impressive. Stretch those numbers out over a full season (give or take, 30 home runs, 120 RBI) with big league experience under his belt and insert him into an already potent line up surrounded by Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and James Loney and I really think we have the makings of an MVP. Also , MVP voters don’t use WAR or Sabrmetrics that often as a factor in the MVP race so as long as Myers churns out those all important stats from the 1800’s that everybody looks at he should be in the MVP race.
Cy Young – Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners.
The American League is certainly filled with aces and number ones stretched across the board. Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and James Shields to name a few. There is really about a ten pitcher pool that you could pick a name from to compete for the Cy Young this year and Felix Hernandez is at the top of my list. We already saw King Felix win the Cy Young on a bad team, this year he should rack up more numbers and most importantly, more wins and similar to the MVP voters, Cy Young voters are still stuck in the 1800’s and value the win more than FIP and runs allowed. King Felix is in line for a fantastic year all around, using outdated stats or advanced metrics.
Rookie of the year – Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers
Nick has raked so far in spring training (.389/.404/.667) and while that is obviously not an indication of what will happen in the regular season , all that we have heard about Castellanos for two years is that no matter what he will hit in the big leagues. He has a Miguel Cabrera like approach at the plate and really drives the ball well to right and right center. The classic inside out swing will keep his bat from going into slumps and he should be in line for a nice rookie season. Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox will finish a very close second.
Manager of the year – Ned Yost, Kansas City Royals
I can’t believe my own eyes. I just penciled in Ned Yost as Manager of the year for the American League. In the past, Yost has more resembled a character out of the movie ‘The Burbs’ than a candidate for the Manager of the year, but even Yost will have a hard time screwing up the Royals this year. They have every indicator pointing in their direction this year as they attempt to dethrone the Detroit Tigers. I really do think the Royals win the American League Central from the Tigers and in the process make Yost look a lot smarter than he really is.
Most disappointing team – The Detroit Tigers
Nobody is going to pick the Tigers to miss the playoffs, I think the safe assumption is that they can compete for a wild card spot in their sleep. Over the past few weeks I have started to get scared with some of the things that Detroit has done. They have a real chance of being a disappointing team. When I say disappointing I mean like not getting to the 2nd round of the playoffs disappointing. This team expects to win a World Series and so do the fans. I just don’t see it happening this year in a tough American League. Way to many questions surrounding shortstop and left field and the bullpen still remains a mystery with just a few days before the home opener. I am concerned about the Detroit Tigers.
WAR Leader not named Mike Trout – Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays.
Everybody will agree that Mike Trout is more than likely going to lead the league in WAR, again. When healthy and playing the majority of the season, Evan Longoria has posted WAR totals of 6.8, 6.2, 7.6 and 6.5 in 4 out of the last 5 years, the only exception was the injury riddled 2012 season when he posted a 2.5. He is in a elite defender and an elite offensive third basemen and is my pick to post the highest WAR total next to Mike Trout. Miguel Cabrera will also be close since he won’t be dragging his defensive numbers down anymore after his switch t first base, but Evan is the complete package on both sides of the ball.
World Series Bound – The Tampa Bay Rays
OK before I get accused of being a homer or a slappy – quickly answer me this question. Who is better than the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League? I thought about that for most of the day and I really feel like the Rays are the best team in the A.L. They have excellent starting and relief pitchers, enough pieces on offense to compete with the big powerhouses of the league and they have the best manager in the game in Joe Maddon pulling the strings. It won’t be the popular pick and most probably won’t even pick them to win the A.L. East, but I already put a nice wager in Vegas on the Rays and I truly believe they represent the American League in this years fall classic.
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