Coming off a brutal 2012 season, the 2013 Boston Red Sox won their third World Series in 10 years. Having failed to repeat in 2005 and 2008, the Red Sox enter 2014 hoping to do what no team has done since the Yankees’ run of three straight titles from 1998-2000.
PECOTA has predicted the Red Sox will finish second in the AL East at 86 wins, five behind division winner Tampa Bay. Such an estimate seems reasonable, given Boston`s projected 2014 roster.
In the infield, only the right side is set in stone. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia was stellar as usual last season and first basemen Mike Napoli more than held his own, hitting .259/.360/.482 and playing acceptance, if unspectacular, defense.
The left side, however, is a total wildcard. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts is one of the top prospects in baseball and a cornerstone of Boston’s future, but he’s also just 21 years old. As the Rangers learnt last season with Jurickson Profar, who is the same age as Bogaerts and looked completely overmatched last season, the MLB has got a steep learning curve.
At third, Will Middlebrooks is less than inspiring. Coming off a brutal .227/.271/.425 season, he needs to prove he can hold his own against major league pitching. He’s just 25 years old, but he strikes out a lot, barely walks and plays awful defense. Unless he can take advantage of his power by making more contact, he’ll be a liability for this team all season.
Stephen Drew remains a free agent, and the Red Sox have no doubt considered signing him and moving Bogaerts to third. Such a move might be a wise one, as the Red Sox would be sacrificing just the 26th overall pick in the 2014 draft. However, as Jacoby Ellsbury signed with the Yankees this offseason, the Red Sox have received a compensation pick only a few turns later.
In the outfield, the picture is equally fuzzy. Daniel Nava had a nice season last year and is project to start in left, but he’s 31 years old and a defensive liability. He would be much better served as a fourth outfielder. In right, Shane Victorino is coming off a career high 6.2 WAR season, having hit .294/.351/.451 with 21 steals at an 88% rate and winning his fourth Gold Glove. However, like Nava, he is on the wrong side of 30.
In the wake of Ellsbury’s departure, it is centrefield where the Red Sox have their biggest question mark. Grady Sizemore has been having a nice spring, and appears to have won the starting gig. But at 31 and more than two years removed from his last major league appearance, it is unknown whether he can return to even a shell of his former self. Waiting in the wings is Jackie Bradley Jr., another top prospect who failed to impress last year after putting up even better numbers than Sizemore last spring.
Rounding out their lineup is catcher A.J. Pierzynski, signed to replace the departed Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and DH David Ortiz. Ortiz is 38, but he put up a great 2013 season and there is little reason to think he can’t play as well this year. Pierzynski is coming off an adequate season, but he is a 37 year old catcher who drew just 11 walks in 529 PA last season.
Their rotation likewise leaves much to be desired. Jon Lester at least resembled his former self after an awful 2012, but his 2013 was none the less plagued with inconsistency. Clay Buchholtz was making headlines last year as the Cy Young frontrunner, going 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA in 12 starts before a shoulder injury ruined his season. The now 29 year old righty has yet to log 30 starts or 200 innings in his 7 year career.
Behind those two, things drop off. John Lackey improved last year, but he has nonetheless been a colossal disappointment going into the final year of his 5-year, $82.5 million contract. Jake Peavy has had exactly one healthy season in his last 5 and Felix Doubront would be much better suited in the bullpen.
Speaking of their bullpen, that is one area in which the Red Sox need not worry. Closer Koji Uehara was unhittable in 2013, and is backed up by a deep cast of quality arms. John Farrell should have no problem holding a late-game lead.
In all, the 2014 Red Sox team has a lot of questions to address before it can be considered a serious contender to repeat as World Series Champion. In a weakened AL East, where the Yankees look more like the 2006 All-Star team than a serious threat and the Orioles and Blue Jays looking to improve after disappointing seasons, the Red Sox have a solid shot at the division, though a more balanced Tampa Bay appears the likely winner.
If Bogaerts and Middlebrooks hold their own, Nava maintains his production, Sizemore returns to being a useful player, Victorino, Ortiz and Pierzynski hold off decline and their rotation stays healthy, the Sox have a dangerous team. But that’s a lot of ifs.
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