Every year, the baseball pundits of every sports outlet flood the Internet with so-called “bold predictions” lists, be they about fantasy baseball, actual baseball, or both. They’ll inform you which players will break out, which players will bust, and just how the San Diego Padres are supposed to surprise everyone and make the playoffs this year (an oddly recurring theme to be sure).
Well I’m sure the readers here on Last Word on Sports are absolutely thrilled to finally have a ludicrous list of their own. Without further ado, here’s my inglorious debut on LWoS: my five actually bold MLB predictions for the 2014 season.
1. Jarred Cosart (HOU) is a top 20 pitcher.
Okay, maybe not completely bold considering the 1.95 ERA he tossed in the big leagues last year, but have you seen this kid pitch? I’m not talking top 20 in the AL, I’m talking top 20 in MLB. For reference, going by xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), Cole Hamels was the 20th best starting pitcher out of all those who threw at least 150 IP.
Cosart boasts a full offering of big-league-ready pitches, including a cutter that could make grown men cry, and recently learned to improve his curve to devastating results. He has excelled at every level of the minors and seems ready to take the next step and become a truly dominant pitcher. While he won’t find himself with an overabundance of wins due to a lack of run support, a pitcher’s true value lies in statistics such as WHIP, FIP and K/BB. Look for Cosart’s name to be among the leaders in these categories as he further masters his new curveball.
2. Billy Hamilton (CIN) crashes and burns, and is off the 25-man roster by the All-Star break.
There’s no denying Hamilton’s speed. He stole over 100 bags in a single season in the minors. Rumor has it he can run from the batter’s box to first in 3.3 seconds. We should probably check to make sure he’s not actually The Flash.
The problem is, however, that you can’t steal first base. Hamilton only hit .256 at Triple-A, with a meagerly .306 OPB. He tried to play Winter Ball in Puerto Rico this offseason and was sent home because he was posting a .286 OBP. And while yes, he hit well over .300 in his brief stint in the Majors last year, and seems to have found his stroke in Spring Training… I don’t buy it. If you couldn’t hit in the Minors, it’s very unlikely that you suddenly do so in the Majors. Bryan Price is going to very quickly discover he’s in desperate need of a real leadoff hitter. There aren’t many candidates to take Hamilton’s place atop the order either, barring a trade of some sort. Joey Votto and his .435 OBP could suddenly find himself pressed into leadoff duties.
3. Kole Calhoun (LAA) is the second most valuable hitter on the Angels after Mike Trout.
I love this guy to death. It’s truly been a joy to watch him hit this spring (a big shout-out to MLB Network for carrying so many Angels games), and his numbers make me happy too. Calhoun sports an OBP of .347 from last year with a .418 mark from this spring, and Mike Soscia plans to have him lead off. “But… Mike Trout!” you say. And yes, Mike Trout is a beast of a hitter and has all the speed and on-base skill in the world, making him a wonderful player to have the front of a lineup.
What Mike Trout also has is a metric ton of power (he raked 27 home runs last year with a .557 slugging percentage and says he wants to hit the ball out more this year), which he’s only tapping into more and more as he grows older. Consider it this way: would you want Ken Griffey Jr. leading off? No, you want Griffey behind a guy or two so that when he hits dingers, there are a few runners on base and you score more runs. The same is true for Trout, which is why Calhoun is going to be hitting in front of him (and some guy named Albert Pujols, who will be better this year). And don’t worry; Calhoun’s got some power himself. The Steamer, Oliver and ZiPS projection systems all predict Calhoun will hit at least 15 home runs.
4. The Boston Red Sox will miss the playoffs…
The Red Sox are a fantastic team. They have a dynamic offense headlined by David Ortiz, Dustin Pedrioa, Mike Napoli, Xander Boegarts (who I expect to hit over .280 this year) and the resurgent Grady Sizemore. They have one of the best bullpens in the league in Koji Uehara (owner of a ludicrous 0.57 WHIP in 2013), Craig Breslow, Edward Mujica, and Junichi Tazawa. Their rotation of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Dubront is talented, with Chris Capuano providing depth in the bullpen.
Yet while they have barely changed, losing Jacoby Ellsbury’s considerable production, the league has changed around them. The Yankees are no longer the injury-riddled team they were last year, adding a plethora of talent with a rotation that is quickly getting younger and much more talented. The Rays will now benefit from full seasons of Wil Myers, David Price, Alex Cobb and David DeJesus, with Grant Balfour moving into the closer’s role. And while the Orioles’ pitching staff will not be impressive, they will win more with Ubaldo Jimenez backing up Chris Tillman and Nelson Cruz making the lineup even deeper. One of the Wild Cards will undoubtedly come out of the East, but who? My bet is on the Yankees, their rotation is quietly one of the best in the league with the addition of Tanaka, a healthy Michael Pineda and the emergence of Ivan Nova backing up CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, and David Phelps in the bullpen. Their offense will be potent enough to power them forward to second place. The Red Sox could capture the second Wild Card, but not if the next team has anything to say about it.
5. …Because the Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central.
Perhaps the least bold of my predictions, judging by how just how many commentators have said this will happen. The real story here, though, is that the Tigers won’t win the Central. If that happens, I’d wager they win the second Wild Card. This is for a number of reasons, the first being their godly pitching staff. A rotation fronted by Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez is nothing to sneeze at. Rick Porcello is constantly being pegged for a breakout, and I think we haven’t seen the real Drew Smyly yet. However, it’s the Detroit position players that worry me. Losing the Andy Dirks half of their left field platoon hurts, as does losing defensive wizard Jose Iglesias, to say nothing of the nine figures of salary that just walked out the door in Prince Fielder. His departure to Texas allows the defensively challenged Miguel Cabrera to move to first base, and clears the way for heralded prospect Nick Castellanos at third. Yet losing Fielder’s protection for Cabrera’s bat hurts, regardless of whatever positive regression that can be expected from a healthy Victor Martinez. Despite these albeit minor issues, the Tigers should be able to feast off the weak Twins and pitching-drained Indians. The Tigers are simply too good to miss October.
The Royals, on the other hand, have a lot going for them. A true leadoff man was brought in in the form of Noricika Aoki, and a good solid second baseman in Omar Infante. The lineup becomes that much deeper, with the added benefit of placing Alex Gordon’s bat in the heart of the order. The offense will live and die, however, by Eric Hosmer. Hosmer lit up the league in the second half of 2013, after receiving instruction from someone named George Brett. Hosmer is as dynamic a bat as there is, and with Aoki and Infante setting the table and Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Sal Perez behind him, the Royals could be very scary to pitch to.
The Kansas City bullpen is as scary as they come, leading the league in FIP, K/9 and ERA in 2013. Greg Holland could be the best closer in the game this side of Craig Kimbrel. The rotation is the team’s weak spot though, with the group of James Shields, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen leaving something to be desired. A trade deadline move to bolster the staff should be expected.
While the Texas Rangers are a tempting target for a Wild Card, their rotation has been eviscerated by injuries. The losses of Matt Harrison and Derek Holland are devastating and their replacements, Tommy Hanson and Joe Saunders, are hardly inspiring. The Rangers will drop lots of games because of their pitching in the first half, and will have to rush to make up for lost time once they get healthy. While Oakland’s loss of Jarred Parker will hurt them, it won’t be nearly enough for Texas to try to catch them.
Well there you have them sports fans, my predictions for MLB’s 2014 season. My next few contributions will further examine some things we can look forward to this year, such as the aforementioned Yankees rotation, and two more teams a lot of people maybe misjudging. Joshua Woody will have the next installment of Slanted Sabr.
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