When Derrick Rose went down (again) early in the 2013-2014 season it was easy to assume that the only playoffs that would be played in the United Center would be by the Chicago Blackhawks, and when Luol Deng was traded away for soon-to-be-cut Andrew Bynum even more hope was lost. However, largely in part due to the indefatigable Joakim Noah and head coach Tom Thibodeau, the Chicago Bulls are just as much a playoff contender now as they were prior to Rose’s injury.
Many of the traits that separate Noah and Thibodeau from their opposing counterparts are not represented by statistics: There is no column in the box score that measures just how effort-demanding Thibodeau is, nor is there a column that measures the number of ear-piercing roars made by Joakim Noah in a single game. That being said, many of Noah’s attributes are able to be measured statistically and Thibodeau’s importance is solidified by the team’s record alone.
Each of the three teams above Chicago in the Eastern Conference have statistical stars — Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan is averaging 22.6 points per game alongside assist-machine Kyle Lowry, the Heat have Lebron James, and the Pacers have Paul George — but Chicago is operating without a statistical star; leading scorer D.J. Augustin averaging just 14.3 points per game.
Instead of dazzling ball-handlers and point-accumulating guards the Chicago Bulls have center Joakim Noah, who is currently putting up career highs in points per game (12.2), rebounds per game (11.3) and assists (4.9) while also averaging 1.5 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. Though these numbers alone depict Noah’s status as an elite center, a further examination into how the Bulls perform with him on the court versus without him better exposes his overall impact.
One of the best ways to evaluate a player’s net impact is to use offensive, defensive, and net ratings. With Joakim Noah on the court, the Bulls have an Offensive Rating of 101.3, which means the Bulls score 101.3 points per 100 possessions with Noah on the court. Contrast that number with the Offensive Rating of the Bulls without Noah on the court (94.4) and it becomes very clear that Noah is a large difference maker for the Bulls.
Further, the Bulls have a Net Rating of 3.2 with Noah on the court (meaning they score 3.2 more points per 100 possessions than they let up) but have a Net Rating of negative 3.5 when Noah is on the bench, which means that the opposition scores 3.5 more points per 100 possessions than the Bulls when Noah is on the bench. Without Noah on the court the Bulls are statistically a losing team, but when he is in play they become entirely different, they become a winning team. It could be too, though, that Noah’s leadership inspires better play even when he is on the bench, but that simply cannot be measured by statistics.
The aforementioned statistic ultimately leads us to the understanding of Noah’s lasting value: per 100 possessions, the Bulls are 6.7 points better with Noah on the court than without Noah on the court. This is an entirely significant figure as over the course of an entire season it can be the difference between being a contender versus sitting at home during the playoffs. Many games are decided by less than six points, and Noah — whether it be by his pervasive energy or his defensive presence — can account for the difference between winning and losing.
To add perspective to the 6.7 difference in Net Rating we can examine Derrick Rose’s Net Rating of 10.6 in 2011-12 versus the Bull’s Net Rating of 8.2 when Rose was on the bench that year. This means that Rose only accounted for an increase of 2.4 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court, a number that, while good, is much lower than the impact Noah has. Even in Rose’s 2010-11 MVP year the Bulls’ net rating was only .9 points higher when Rose was on the court versus when Rose was off the court, though the Bulls had a much higher collective offensive rating that season and a much lower defensive rating*.
Noah may never average over 20 points per game or win an MVP award, but he is clearly the most valuable player on Chicago’s roster, a fact that manifests itself in the differences of Net Ratings between Noah playing versus Noah sitting (or standing and instructing) on the bench. Having won seven of their last ten games and currently 36-29, the Bulls are on a path to excel further into the season, a path being guided by Noah’s strong play.
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*It is worth noting that the Bulls are currently the NBA’s lowest-scoring team, a statistic that is misleading because of their clock-exhausting defensive play. It is also worth noting that in 2010-11 the Bulls had a NetRtg of 8.3 with Rose on the court versus 7.4 when Rose was on the bench. What this means is that the Bulls were a much better and much higher scoring team in 2010-11, but the difference between Rose being on the court versus Rose being on the bench was much smaller than the same statistic for Noah this year.
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