Are you on the fritz, pulling your hair out, waiting for the Houston Texans to sign a big name free agent? Across the league you are watching other teams build their roster with the players that you wanted to see in a Texans uniform. While this works for some NFL teams, it’s not the way the NFL is trending. We are seeing a gradual shift in building a team through the draft rather than through the free agency period. While free agency will probably never go away, it will lose its appeal as the draft period grows.
NFL teams are moving towards a model that focuses on filling their needs through the draft rather than free agency. The reason for this shift within the league is due to the cap-friendly rookie contracts, the result of the new collective bargaining agreement. In the past, we would see six- or seven-year deals at $7 to $10 million a year. For example, in the 2013 NFL Draft offensive lineman Eric Fisher signed for four years at $22 million. That is still a decent sized contract, but it allows the team to do more with the cap. Rookies have something to prove now in the NFL. With the new collective bargaining agreement, their performance decides how big their next contract is. Interestingly, a rookie’s performance may overshadow the veteran playing with a large contract already receiving his reward.
The Seattle Seahawks, for example, have mostly built their Super Bowl winning team through the draft. Don’t get me wrong, they have spent some money re-signing and acquiring big name free agents, and most of those contracts work to the benefit of the team rather than the player. Then there are rookies such as quarterback Russell Wilson and cornerback Richard Sherman, the team’s offensive and defensive leaders, who get paid a combined $1,281,691 a year. The key for this model to work is to have a coach who can bring all the talent out of his young players. He must know their strengths and weaknesses, which puts them in a position to succeed. Richard Sherman, originally a wide receiver from Stanford University, was drafted in 2011 in the fifth round by the Seahawks and was converted to cornerback. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll saw an opportunity with Sherman and capitalized on it; Sherman repaid by getting 8 interceptions during the 2013 season. The successes of the Seahawks are due to four simple reasons:
1. Drafting the needs of their team with talented players
2. Using free agency to fill the rest of the team needs, with cap-friendly contracts
3. Great coaching
4. Great chemistry, making sure the team can work together to accomplish one goal
How does this translate to the Houston Texans? The Texans have a rich history of great drafting from their inaugural season until now. Great players such as Mario Williams, J.J. Watt, and Andre Johnson all came from the draft. Keeping that in mind, going forward the Texans seemed primed to implement this new model. Having the first pick in the NFL Draft gives them the best opportunity to get the best players on the board. The positions of focus for the Texans include quarterback, offensive line, linebacker, cornerback, safety, and running back. These are all positions that can easily be filled through the draft. I believe the recipe for success for the Houston Texans going forward will be to keep their roster young, with veteran leadership and great chemistry. Their focus should be on drafting smart and signing cap-friendly contracts to free agents.
We are impatient people; we want the best players of last year and can’t stand to see other teams sign them. Patience is a virtue and it pays off in the end. Some of the best bargains in free agency are those signings three or four days into the free agency period. This is typically when the players are impatient and will take what the team offers, worrying about finding a place to play. So free agency isn’t bad, but it does not build a Super Bowl winning team. In corporate America every worker is expendable; it is no different in the NFL, as we have learned this off-season. In the NFL, to win a Super Bowl you must draft well and sign smart contracts. It will be interesting going forward to see the path the Houston Texans choose.
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