Saturday afternoon I flipped on MLB.TV and watched a live spring training game at random between the Astros and Yankees. Jarred Cosart got the start against the Bronx Bombers. Throughout the game I was constantly reminded of just how much prospect depth and up and coming talent that Houston has in its pipe line. Being the laughing stock of the big leagues and compiling early draft picks will do that for a club. Today I will examine four of those players.
1. Jarred Cosart, Right Handed Starter
Jarred Cosart was drafted by the Phillies and traded to the Astros in 2012. He came up last year in the middle of an ever changing Astros rotation and did a nice job in the short time he spent with the big league club. He pitched 60 innings and posted a tremendously low 1.95 ERA. He had a moderate 4.95 K/9 rate but that should improve with more polish at the big league level. The most telling stat for Cosart was his fantastic .246 BABIP against him.
But the low BABIP is not even the half of his pitching make up. His LOB% in 2013 was a crazy 86.5%. So when Cosart is putting runners on, which he did quite a bit posting a high walk rate of almost 5 per 9 innings, he’s stranding them at a higher rate than every other qualified pitcher in baseball. Oddly, his skills actually have been better with runners on than with the bases empty. His strikeout percentage has increased with runners on, and again with runners in scoring position. Similarly, he has basically cut his walk rate in half with men on base.
Cosart surprised many last year with how well he handled the pressure of big league games and more importantly pitching in high stress situations. Jarred obviously projects as a top of the line starter for Houston in 2014 and years to come.
2. Jonathon Villar, Shortstop
Jonathon Villar will open the 2014 season penciled in as the everyday shortstop for the Houston Astros, but everybody knows that he’s not the long-term answer at that position. Part of the reason for that is that former #1 overall pick Carlos Correa. Correa will make it to the big club sooner than later but for now Villar is the starter and will be looking to continue building on the roller coaster numbers he had in 2013 on a limited basis.
Villar can have a huge impact offensively, he did manage to steal 18 bases in just the 241 plate appearances for the Astros and should easily reach the 30/35 steal plateau with more playing time this year. Villar more than likely will never be a high on base % guy, but his ability to beat out infield hits and put pressure on a defense with his legs will keep his OBP % around league average (.330). To further prove that point he had a .362 BABIP compared to just a .236 batting average.
He has to have better plate discipline this year if he wants to keep his job, last year he struck out on nearly 30% of his plate appearances and only walked in 10%. VIllar can have an impact for this Astros team but he has to get on base in order to do so. Jonathon has trouble making consistent contact as well, he had a dreadful 70.4% contact rate, which was in the lower third of the league for qualified players. While he is not the everyday answer for the future of this team, he can make an impact this year for the Astros with his legs and an improved plan at the plate.
3. Brett Oberholtzer, Left Handed Starter
Going simply by his body of work in 2013, Brett Oberholtzer had a really nice year. Oberholtzer posted a 2.76 ERA , 3.65 FIP and a WAR of 1.3. The lefty showed limited some signs of power, striking out 5.65 over 9 innings. His walk rate was decent, giving up only 1.63 walks over 9 and he kept the home run ball in check only allowing 0.88 over 9. Brett stranded 76.9 of the base runners he allowed over 71 innings pitched last year.
The Astros signed Scott Feldman to be their ‘ace’ and opening day starter, but many feel that Brett Oberholtzer could be that guy as soon as next season. However he has struggled in spring training. His velocity is down a notch from last year when he averaged 91 MPH with his fastball. He is also working on a curveball that could help him out tremendously. Last year he only threw three pitches, fastball, slider and change up, and he hardly ever threw his secondary pitches, as his fastball was thrown nearly 60% of the time. He is obviously very committed to working on his secondary pitches including the new curveball, as evident in these comments he gave to MLB.COM after his first spring training appearance.
“My main objective was working on my curveball and trying to be more consistent with strikes at 0-2, 1-2,” he said. “Also, to use it with lefties ahead in the count. I felt like I threw some good off speed pitches today. That’s a positive note. It gives me a foundation to work off a good base. Each outing is a learning experience, and I take it as it comes.”
Oberholtzer will be a solid number 3 or 4 starter for the Astros this year and like the rest of the young pitching staff, will continue to improve and learn over time.
4. George Springer, Outfield
George Springer is one of the top rated positional player in the Astros farm system. Last year he hit 37 home runs and stole 45 bases between double and triple A. When I look at the projected starting outfield for the Astros I was severely underwhelmed. They acquired Dexter Fowler in the off-season but outside of Fowler they have nothing but question marks. Robbie Grossman is a decent defensive player who doesn’t show much in the power or speed department. L.J. Hoes made an impact in 2013 but like Grossman, lacks in the power department, and his 61% ground ball rate has to leave a sour taste in Astros fans mouths.
The 24-year-old Springer could get his chance soon. Outside of Fowler locking down center field, the Astros are lacking outfield talent. Springer has always had nice power, speed and contact numbers and at some point the Astros front office will want to see see how those will translate to the big leagues. Springer has proven in the minors that he has plate discipline as well, last year he had 83 walks and posted a 1.053 OPS. He has only produced a wRC+ of under 100 one time in his minor league career. Last year he posted 175 wRC+ in Triple-A and 174 wRC+ in Double-A. Tremendous numbers for any prospect.
With some major league time under his belt and the opportunity to learn and grow at this level, he should easily project into a 20-20 or even a 30-30 guy in the big leagues. Naturally his strikeout rate will go up a bit once he enters the big leagues, but his body of work is very evident. He might not start on the opening day roster this year ,but once he makes up to the show he should make a nice career out of it.
The Astros are absolutely stocked with prospects, I am blown away with much talent they have in their system, and I didn’t even mention Mark Appel or Jonathan Singleton. Of course nobody really knows how prospects will do once they reach the big leagues, but some of these players will leave their mark on an organization desperate for star power.
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