The Toronto Blue Jays had lofty expectations going into the 2013 season and failed to deliver. Injuries, terrible starting pitching and a rotating door of an everyday line up contributed to a disappointing season all around. 2014 should be a totally different story for the Blue Jays.
Remember this time one year ago, the Blue Jays were the talk of the baseball world. Jose Reyes was going to be an MVP contender, Josh Johnson was going to win the Cy Young and R.A. Dickey was going to carry the Jays to the postseason. Boy, things turned out way different for our friends up north. I remember buying into the hype last year and picking the Jays to claim a wild card spot, I remember opening night watching MLB.TV and tuning into a sold out Rogers Centre and sensing the excitement of a new season, only to watch R.A. Dickey get beat around like a used pin ball machine. It was rather depressing to watch.
Things turned out pretty badly for the Blue Jays as we are all well aware. Josh Johnson was a complete flop and now will be pitching for the Padres. R.A. Dickey was not as advertised although he did put together some nice starts towards the end of the year. Jose Bautista only played in 118 games, Jose Reyes missed a huge chunk of the year and Brett Lawrie was a train wreck all season. Forget all of that however, I’m here to tell you things can change for the Blue Jays in 2014 and here is how.
1. A healthy Jose Bautista paired with Edwin Encarnacion is one of the best combos in baseball.
I’m amazed at how underrated Edwin Encarnacion really is in the baseball community. Edwin has posted back to back 4.1 WAR seasons and has also had some tremendous secondary numbers. 145 wRC+ in 2012, 137 wRC+ in 2013 while having a OPS of over .900 in both years. He has surpassed the 100 RBI mark in three straight years and scored 90+ runs in back-to-back seasons. He is an absolute offensive stud and it is unfortunate that not that many casual baseball fans are familiar with just how good he is.
Bautista on the other hand is without a doubt a household name but has had back-to-back seasons in which he was unable to surpass 120 games played. It is a shame because he has put up huge numbers and is a legit MVP contender when healthy. Jose posted huge WAR totals of 6.5 in 2010, and 7.7 in 2011. During his last two injury plagued seasons he still managed to post a 3.0 WAR in 2011 and a 4.2 WAR in 2012. Let us not forget his remarkable 2011 season when he posted a 181 wRC+ and an OPS of 1.051. If the Jays are going to contend in a stacked American League East this year, it begins and ends with these two having healthy, productive seasons.
2. The pitching staff has to be better, and it will.
The biggest question of all for Toronto resides within the pitching staff. The top three are solid, not over powering great, but solid. R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Brandon Morrow. Three veteran pitchers who are a lot better than they displayed in 2013. After those top three there are some questions about who is next in line. Many projections have J.A. Happ claiming the fourth spot in the rotation and Todd Redmond snagging the last spot. We won’t really know who number four and five are until it is announced but its safe to assume that Happ and Redmond are the favorites.
The top thre aren’t as bad as it looks. The best thing going for them is that all three are completely different pitchers. Dickey won the Cy Young award two seasons ago and may have just needed a season under his belt in the American League to become familiar with it all, He did finish 2013 with a nice streak of games and resembled the player the Blue Jays traded for .Morrow is a power pitcher who has averaged 9.42 K/9 over his career however has a lifetime 4.22 ERA and FIP of 3.94. Mark Buehrle is not going to surprise anybody with what he brings to the table but has been a solid pitcher over his 14-year career. These three need to carry the Jays rotation, stay healthy, and at least be close to what they have been in the past in order to help this team. Nobody is going to say that this rotation is top level in the American League , but there is no reason they can’t compete.
The strong suit for the Blue Jays last year was their shut down bullpen. Brett Cecil and Steve Delabar had fantastic, All-Star years and really established themselves as legit bullpen arms. Casey Janssen could have also been selected to the All-Star game as he had a fantastic season after being inserted into the closer role for the Jays. These three will be looking to continue the good things they did in 2013. Lets just hope that the starters get on board.
3. Jose Reyes holds the keys.
Earlier I wrote that any success the Blue Jays have will begin and end with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, while that is very very true, if Jose Reyes is not creating havoc at the top of the order it will be another disaster year for Toronto. Reyes is a game changer, and is arguably the most electric player in the league when healthy. When Jose got hurt last year it was as if the Jays parked the broken down Lamborghini in the garage for the summer.
Reyes has posted WAR totals of 2.2 , 4.1 and 5.8 during his last 3 seasons. He is capable of stealing 40 bases (2012 with the Marlins), and scoring 100 runs (2011 with the Mets). Reyes is the ultimate lead off hitter and is one of those guys that can get everybody else on the team feeling that much better about themselves. Of course just like Jose Bautista, Reyes has unfortunately been injured far to often in his career and the Blue Jays chances of survival in a stacked American League east rest solely on the healt of their star players.
I really hope Toronto can make some noise in the American League east this year. I don’t think they are any where near how good the Rays or Red Sox are going into the season, but stranger things have happened in this division in recent memory, I mean look at the Red Sox last year, nobody saw that coming. It is also a lot easier to root the Blue Jays than it is the Yankees or the Sox so hey, they have that going for them.
In closing , here is the Blue Jays projected opening day line up.
1. Jose Reyes
2. Melky Cabrera
3. Jose Bautista
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. Brett Lawrie
6. Adam Lind
7. Colby Rasmus
8. Dioner Navarro
9. Maicer Izturis/Ryan Goins
Pretty solid if you ask me. That 1-4 is as dangerous as any line up you can come up with in the American League. Colby Rasmus had a really nice year last year , and Brett Lawrie will be looking to rebound and get back some of the swagger he had when he first made it to the big leagues. Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays are serious contenders for at least a wild card in 2014.
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