The Colorado Avalanche are a team that has personified the word, “change”, more than any other over the last 365 days of the year. Their renovations have included a new head coach, executive vice-president of hockey operations, and motto. Last season, it was blatant their intentions were to “not lose”, or “keep it close” and “try to survive”. This season, Ray Bourque inspired them to adopt “why not us”, accompanied by Patrick Roy’s new mission statement: play with a Stanley Cup attitude.
These changes have helped drastically changed the fortunes of the Colorado Avalanche, along with the standings. At the end of the 2012-13 season, the Colorado Avalanche sat 38 points behind the Chicago Blackhawks after 48 games. 61 games into this season, they are only three points behind Chicago and St. Louis with around 21 games remaining. Sometimes, change is good.
The NHL alignment also changed this year, obscuring the common strategy of match-ups. Since there are only two divisions, the NHL decided to make the two and three seeds from each division face each other. Talk about trying to fabricate rivalries. The division winners only have to play the wild-card teams. Consequently, the Colorado Avalanche might want to look at the situation more closely here.
Any normal year, a team of their circumstance might call it good with the fifth seed, after being a lottery team prior. They would have a decent chance of moving on to the second round, after playing a slightly better team in the fourth seed of the playoffs. However, Colorado has no such luxury any more. They will have to face either Chicago or St. Louis, if they finish second or third in the central division. Therefore, it will be in Colorado’s best interest to try to win the division during the regular season. Their fate is determined by the resulting match-ups.
If the season ended right now, Colorado would be playing a series against Chicago, who would own home-ice advantage. St. Louis, the division winner, would play Minnesota who is the best available wild-card team. Colorado is leads the season series against Chicago 2-1, but would be facing the defending champs in the playoffs, a task no team wants to face. Finishing in the middle of the pack, they also have a good chance to face St. Louis, whom they are 0-2 against, and have been outscored 11-4.
In almost every possible situation, Colorado should covet the first seed. Doing this, they would avoid St. Louis and Chicago altogether, and they would take their chance on a wild-card team. However, I believe there is more to this situation than just projections for this year’s playoffs.
The big picture always is more important than the specifics. Colorado took on a huge task, pledging to have a “Stanley Cup attitude”. That implies many things, but most of all, I believe it means to never settle. If they truly embody that phrase, they will not allow themselves to call it good just entering the playoffs, even if they have already exceeded every expectation. They have a chance to take the central division this year, and possibly become Stanley Cup contenders.
Every champion has reached that point where they had to decide whether they really wanted it all, or just be happy with a finite amount of success. With the choice laid in front of them, they did not choose the easy route. I’m sure the Chicago Blackhawks and their young roster faced this exact situation a few years back. Colorado could be at those same crossroads now. They have changed before, but it’s time to make the final change. It’s time for the Avalanche to take a leap of faith into the unknown, and go for it all: it could make all of the difference for the road ahead.
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