Sonny Gray, Alex Cobb and Danny Salazar. Three young pitchers that have had a nice impact already on their teams, and three young pitchers who are in line for even bigger things in 2014. The casual baseball is likely unfamiliar with this trio. Even the more passionate fans may only know who Cobb is thanks to ESPN replaying a line drive off his head for two weeks straight. But I promise you they will be household names sooner rather than later.
Few could have predicted that Sonny Gray would make it to the majors as fast as he did AND have as big an impact as he did in the 2013 regular and postseasons. He made 10 starts for the Oakland Athletics during the season and two huge starts in the postseason series vs the Detroit Tigers. Living here in Michigan, I heard it all series from Tiger fans – “Who is this kid?” and “Why is he running through our offense like it’s nothing?” Sonny Gray looked downright filthy during that series, and even though the Tigers won in the end beating him in game 5 , Gray is without a doubt on his way to becoming the ace of the A’s staff.
Gray started 10 games for the Athletics and appeared in 12 overall during the regular season. He posted tremendous numbers all around: a 2.67 ERA , 2.70 FIP , .276 BABIP , 0.56 HR/9 , 9.42 K/9, and a 74.9 Left on base %. He also manufactured a 1.5 WAR despite only getting into 12 games, and that is a pretty good pace. The biggest numbers that jump out at me when discussing Gray is his almost nine and a half strikeouts over nine innings. That is a marvelous number that shows that he is a power pitcher and can get guys to swing and miss at any time. He will have to work on his control just a bit as he did have a walk rate of 2.49 over nine innings, and he will have to get that left on base % up around the 80% mark, but obviously the kid has talent and a real knack for pitching in pressure spots. His two playoff starts alone are excellent proof.
During the playoff series with the Tigers, Gray’s walk rate nearly doubled to a 4.15 over never innings, however his left on base % jumped up to 89.0%. As I stated, he has a knack for getting people out and should only get better during the 2014 season and the years to come. Gray is projected to be the Athletics’ opening day starter and you can’t fault them for wanting him to be that number one guy.
Alex Cobb may be a little more established than the other guys I have grouped into this young gun category, but he is still pitching in the shadow of David Price. As you all know, Cobb missed a huge chunk of the season last year after getting drilled in the head by a line drive during a game with the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana field. Once Alex Cobb was cleared to return he made the most of it, having one of the best stretches that you could put together as a starting pitcher.
Alex finished 2013 with a 2.76 ERA , 3.36 FIP and posted a 2.4 WAR. He struck out 8.41 over nine innings, stranded 81.4% of the base runners he allowed and was a dominant ground ball pitcher, inducing a 55.8% ground ball percentage. He will no doubt have to work on his nearly three walks per nine innings and his .279 BABIP is probably going to even itself out this year and be more around the .300 mark, but Cobb’s secondary numbers speak to the growth he showed last year and just how much better he should be in 2014.
In his final ten starts of 2013, Cobb allowed only 16 runs, struck out 59 batters, and had a FIP of 2.98. That is incredible. The Rays took their time with Cobb after his injury and it paid off tremendously. Cobb even started the one game playoff against the Cleveland Indians and went 6.2 innings of shutout baseball against a fantastic Cleveland offense. As long as David Price is still with the Rays, Cobb will be away from the spotlight. But with the notion that Price will not be with Tampa after the 2014 season, there is no denying that Cobb is the future ace of the staff and he is in line for a superb 2014, with or without Price on the team.
That brings us to Danny Salazar. Not only was Salazar a standout story for the Indians in 2013, he also sports one of the best haircuts in the game. But beyond that incredible lettuce on the top of his head, Salazar is a pitcher who was called up in 2013, placed on a strict pitch count and still dominated opposing line ups every chance he was given the ball.
Salazar, who is actually ranked anywhere from 4th – 10th on most Indians prospect lists, came up last year and dazzled in his brief stay with the Indians. The most notable skill Salazar has is his knack for strike outs. Salazar boggled the mind, posting a 11.25 K/9 mark in the 52 innings he pitched for Cleveland last year. His velocity was off the charts as well, averaging nearly 96 MPH between the four seam and two seam fastballs. He also dazzled with a wipe out slider and an above average change up.
Salazar has posted crazy K/9 numbers all through his minor league career, 13.63 in 2012 and 11.83 in 2013 while in triple A. Like most young pitchers, Salazar will have to work on his walk rate and keeping the ball down in the zone. He did give up a 13.7 HR/FB % while with the Indians but like most secondary stats, water will find its level eventually. In those 52 innings pitched last year with Cleveland he posted a 3.12 ERA , 3.16 FIP and a 1.2 WAR. Pretty good numbers on a short sample size. Salazar will be in the rotation this year for the Indians and will be looking to show more of the skill set he displayed in 2013.
Of all three pitchers I have talked about in this piece, I believe the ceiling is highest for Salazar, and pitching against some offensively challenged American League Central teams like the Twins and White Sox will further display his development and skill set. He did fare pretty well against the Tigers last year as well (15 strike outs, just four runs allowed over two starts vs Detroit).
Sonny Gray, Alex Cobb and Danny Salazar are just a few examples of the wealth of young pitching on display in baseball today. These three are the Justin Verlanders and David Prices of tomorrow and the future of big time pitching in the American League.
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