The Tampa Bay Rays took a major hit last week when it was announced that Jeremy Hellickson will miss 6-8 weeks of the regular season after having surgery on his right elbow. Rumors continue to swirl that Tampa Bay may also move David Price at some point during the season which would only mean one thing – next man up.
Under the current regime of Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman, the Rays have always had a surplus of major league quality arms waiting in the wings. Just stop and think quickly about all of the quality arms we have seen in Tampa the past few seasons. James Shields, David Price, Alex Cobb, Matt Garza, Matt Moore, and Chris Archer just to name a few. When the news broke last week that starter Jeremy Hellickson would miss the first six to eight weeks of the regular season it seemed like a big blow for the Rays, until I dove in a little bit deeper.
Jeremy Hellickson won the American League rookie of the year award in 2011 after a solid season in which he posted a 2.95 ERA and a somewhat high 4.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which assumes that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Another way to think of FIP is to remember FIP only penalizes or rewards the pitcher for completion of the three different outcomes), the home run, the strikeout and the walk.) So as you can see in 2011 his ERA was somewhat misleading and his much higher FIP told a different side to the story of that season.
Perhaps the most telling metric of all was his .222 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). 2013 was a massive regression for Hellickson and he suffered through the worst year of his career. Hitters had a clear advantage with Jeremy as his BABIP rose to .317 and he only held 66% of the runners he allowed on base not to score. Hellickson posted a 5.17 ERA and a 4.22 FIP in 2013. Ouch. Quite the difference from that rookie of the year 2011 season in every stat except the all telling FIP.
The thought has been that maybe Hellickson was battling the injury during the latter part of last season. Perhaps it was just a case of the balls that found grass in 2013 were the same balls that found gloves in 2011. Whatever the case it will be next man up for the Rays.
Jake Odorizzi made seven starts last year for the Rays in relief of an injured Alex Cobb and the ineffective Roberto Hernandez. Odorizzi, who came over with Wil Myers in the James Shields trade, is rated as the top prospect in the Rays organization, and should benefit from the time he spent up with the big club last year. During his brief stay in the majors, Jake showed a nice 6.67 K/9 rate and kept both his ERA and FIP under 4.00, which is very tolerable.
Odorizzi will be first in line to pick up the slack for Hellickson and if he performs as well as Chris Archer did in the same role last year, he may find himself sticking around for the full year. Archer had to be relied on heavily last year after the injuries suffered by Matt Moore and Alex Cobb, and turned in a tremendous year. Odorizzi will be asked to do the same if he gets his chance.
Alex Colome also came up last year and made three starts for the Rays and looked over powering at times. He will have to control his walks as he allowed 14 walks over 16 innings pitched but his fastball was topping out at 95 miles per hour and he has always had huge strike out numbers in the minors, (7.84 K/9 in 2011, 9.00 in 2012) with the Triple A Durham Bulls, along with sporting an excellent 3.48 FIP.
Colome is actually the fifth rated prospect in the Rays system, however much like Archer last year, if he can find his control and cut the walks, once he gets here it will be to stay. According to Mark Tompkin , who covers the Rays for the St. Pete Times, he believes that Odorizzi will get the first crack to replace Hellickson, followed by Colome.
Enny Romero may also be in the mix for a starting gig at some point during the season. Romero has risen quickly through the minor league ranks and actually made one spot start against the Baltimore Orioles. Enny Romero pitched 4 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing one hit and four walks during that spot start. Romero is hard thrower who topped out at 97 miles per hour in 2013. He also has a nasty, wipe-out slider which was voted the best slider in the Rays organization in 2013. Romero posted a 2.76 ERA / 4.07 FIP in his 2013 minor league season.
Enny is rated as the fourth best prospect on the farm for the Rays, but the left hander might still be behind Colome in terms of being major league ready. Of course as we have seen with the Rays for years, those numbers are just that -numbers. Romero could come up for a cup of coffee in the bullpen like David Price did in his first year, or who knows, Maddon could use him as a playoff starter like he did with Matt Moore in the 2011 playoffs. One thing that we do know about Romero and the Rays, if he he is called upon, he will be used.
The wild card in all of this is if David Price is traded either before the season or at the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, we will more than likely see all three of these pitchers in the big leagues at some point during the 2014 season. The Rays have been silent on the David Price front and in my opinion are a much better team with him, and plan on keeping him this year as long as it is not a losing season at the trade deadline. However, the Rays have proven they are not afraid to trade and make trades for depth that benefit them not only in the present, but also the future.
The Rays have two pitchers that could move into the rotation right now in Odorizzi and Colome, and one that could use a little bit more time at Triple A working on command in Romero, so losing Jeremy Hellickson will not be the end of the world for the Rays. It will simply be next man up, like it always is with Tampa Bay and their young pitchers.
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