To Tank or Not to Tank?

The 2014 NBA draft will be held on June 26th and this year’s draft class looks promising. Four months prior to the draft, NBA GMS’s will begin to show their hand on whether they are shooting for the playoffs, or to quote Jalen Rose: “Riggin” for Wiggins. The NBA trade deadline will be held on February 20, 2014.

Since the 2013 NBA season began, the NBA draft has been on my mind. As a follower of the Toronto Raptors, I have debated back and forth on this. Does Masai Ujiri wave the white flag and tank, or should he ride out this current hot streak and make a strong playoff push with this current roster? Noting their record after 41 games (21-20), it appears the playoffs will be likely and the Raptors will miss out on a potential franchise changer in the 2014 NBA Draft.

But I ask the question, will they really miss out if they don’t draft in the lottery? Since the 2003 draft, which is arguably one of the greatest drafts of all time, does tanking equal future success? Do lottery teams really get franchise changing talents, or even all-star calibre talents?

Since the 2004 draft, there has been 600 players drafted. Out of the 600 players drafted only 27 have been named to an NBA all-star team. I am including the 2013 draft in my analysis, which I understand makes the numbers a little skewed as players from the 2013 draft have not yet had a chance to be an all-star and the inclusion of the 2012 draft probably does not give those draftees enough time to create all-star credentials. However, when looking at the 2012 draft and the 2013 draft there are three players who I believe are potential all-stars, but haven’t had a chance to build their resumes. I decided to included Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis and Michael Carter-Williams to round out my list and bring the number of players to an even 30.

Hold on though, included in that 30 are late draft finds and second round sleepers. Noting teams are tanking to get into the NBA draft lottery, I decided to look at these 30 players and find out how many of them were actually drafted in the lottery.

Here is the list:

*potential all-star calibre talents

Out of a potential 140 lottery drafted players from the past 10 years, only 23 have been named all-stars, or what I consider to be potential “all-star” calibre talents. When you do the math, this means only 16.4% of lottery drafted players or an average of 2.3 picks per year have played in an all-star game over the past ten drafts.

What about franchise changing draft picks? I would argue there is only 4 franchise changing players drafted since 2004.

• Dwight Howard – 3X defensive player of the year, 5X All-NBA First Team
• Chris Paul – 3X All-NBA First Team, NBA Rookie of the Year, arguably the best point guard on the planet
• Derrick Rose – 2011 MVP, NBA ROY
• Kevin Durant – NBA ROY, 3X NBA Scoring champion

Let me provide another list of names for you to ponder: Al Jefferson, David Lee, Monta Ellis, Amir Johnson, Paul Milsap, Arron Afflalo, Marc Gasol, Roy Hibbert, DeAndre Jordan, Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson, Jrue Holiday, Lance Stephenson, Kawhi Leonard, and Chandler Parsons.

Now by no means are all these names considered all-star talents, but they do confirm one thing:  you don’t need to draft in the lottery to get quality NBA talent. The names listed above are all quality NBA players that were drafted outside of the lottery and this also confirms that every year there are non-lottery selections that can help build a winning franchise.

This year the Raptors are going to be considered a winning franchise in the lowly eastern conference and will need to find a late round draft pick to build on this year’s progress. My advice for Masai Ujiri (not like he needs it) would be to stay the course. The goal should be to get into the playoffs, continue to build a winning culture – which will help in attracting a free agent or two, and find a talent in the draft.

You know, there is a Syracuse freshman named Tyler Ennis who would look good in a Raptor uniform.

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