The offseason is approaching quickly, and most teams have already started to review their roster and decide on the positions where they need to improve the most. Once they know this, they will have to decide how to address these needs. There are obviously two main options- free agency and the draft. Although available cap space and draft picks will affect which path is taken, the talent pool is also a factor.
That final point is the premise of this series of articles. On a position-by-position basis, I will breakdown what each teams needs are, and compare the talent available in free agency and the draft. I will finish by answering a simple question- if you need an upgrade at ______, is it better to draft or sign a player this offseason? In the first instalment, I will be looking at the backs and receivers- RB, FB, WR, TE.
Running Back
Who needs one? Jaguars, Browns, Giants, Raiders, Dolphins, Titans, Falcons
There is an impressive selection of free agent running backs this year. Many see Knowshon Moreno as the best available, after finished the year with over 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Apart from the former Georgia Bulldog, there is a plethora of options, from big names (Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew) to talented players who are currently not their team’s primary ‘back (Donald Brown, Ben Tate, James Starks, Toby Gebhart). Add in possible cap casualties (Chris Johnson, I’m looking right at you), and there will be a lot of talented runners available come March.
For the second season in a row, it looks likely that no running back will go in the first round of the draft. But don’t assume that as a result there is a lack of quality- just look at the success of Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and Le’veon Bell. The 2014 class includes four runners who racked up over 1800 rushing yards this season- Andre Williams, Ka’Deem Carey, Bishop Sankey and Tre Mason. Other notable players include Lache Seastrunk and Carlos Hyde, who both averaged over 8 YPC.
Draft or Sign? Sign- although there are some good players in the draft class, the combination of quality and experience means most RB-needy teams will target one in free agency.
Fullback
There are three main free agent fullbacks this year, although none of them are exceptional. The best of those is Henry Hynoski, although he missed a large part of 2013 due to injury. The other two notable players are John Kuhn and Greg Jones, who are both decent players in the right system, but are both towards the end of their careers. The 2014 draft is likely to see between three and six fullbacks drafted. The best of these is Jay Prosch, whose run blocking was an important part of Auburn’s run to the BCS championship. Other top prospects include Oklahoma’s Trey Millard (who had a good shot at being the first fullback taken until he tore his ACL against Texas Tech) and Florida’s Trey Burton (who can play fullback, tight end or wide receiver).
Draft or sign? Draft- There is a good variety of fullbacks, both more traditional run blockers and other with wider skillsets, available across the draft and free agency. Although both routes provide solid options, the reduced cost of rookies and greater pool to choose from means drafting a fullback will be more tempting for most.
Wide Receiver
Who needs one? Redskins, Jaguars, Browns, Raiders, Buccaneers, Lions, Giants, Ravens, Packers, Steelers, Chiefs, Colts, Panthers, 49ers
Although there is talent to be had, this year’s free agent wide receiver crop is not great. The star is definitely Eric Decker, who ended the year with 1288 yards and has reached the end zone 32 times in the last three years. Six other free agent WRs finished the year with over 800 yards. This includes two players who racked up over 1000 yards (Anquan Boldin and Julian Edelman), and three aged 26 or younger (Golden Tate, Hakeem Nicks and Riley Cooper).
On the other hand, this year’s draft class is loaded with wide receivers, with 19 underclassmen declaring. They are headed by three players who are near-guarantees to go in the first round- TAMU’s Mike Evans, Clemson’s Sammy Watkins and USC’s Marquise Lee. But what makes this set of WRs so special is the amount of depth- there are between fifteen and twenty players who could go in the first three rounds. This would be the first time since the 2007 draft more than 15 receivers have gone in that span.
Draft or Sign? Draft- The quality and quantity of receivers in this year’s draft means that I expect a lot of teams to target one in May.
Tight End
Who needs one? Raiders, Falcons, Buccaneers, Bills, Giants, Ravens, Jets, Packers, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, Seahawks
The quality of this set of free agent tight ends depends purely on one player- New Orleans’s Jimmy Graham. Over the past three years, Graham has racked up over 35 TDs and 3500 yards, and will either get the franchise tag or a big contract. If the former occurs, there is little of interest left. Some of the other players available include Brandon Pettigrew, Dennis Pitta and Scott Chandler, but none of the three have ever put up 800 yards in a year.
Although there is a lack of depth at tight end in this year’s draft, there are some top players to be had early. The best two, who both have a chance to go in the top 20, are Mackey award finalist Eric Ebron and single season tight end receiving record holder Jace Amaro. Other players who could also go by the end of day two include Austin Seferian-Jenkins, CJ Fiedorowicz AND Troy Niklas, who are all at least 6’6”.
Draft or Sign? Draft- Take out Jimmy Graham, and there isn’t a free agent tight end who has the potential to be one of the top-1o in the league. But there are multiple players coming out of college who could have that honour in just a few years’ time.
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