Can surprising SEC runner-up Missouri pull off yet another victory when they face Mike (I’m a man! I’m forty!) Gundy’s Oklahoma State squad?
Jan. 3, 7:30pm EST, FOX
When Missouri Has The Ball
Quarterback James Franklin has numbers that would be respectable over a full season- 2,255 yards, 19 TDs and five INTs, as well as 474 yards and four TDs rushing. You’ll remember, however, that Franklin was injured in the Georgia game and missed the next four. The main beneficiaries of having Franklin back in the lineup- although freshman backup Maty Mauk performed very admirably, winning three of his four starts in Franklin’s absence- were the team’s top receivers, L’Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham. The two have combined for 1,683 yards and 22 of the Tigers’ 30 passing TDs, the remaining eight being split among seven players. On the ground, Henry Josey has returned to form following- well, calling it a knee injury doesn’t quite do it justice. In November 2011, Josey tore his ACL, MCL, patellar tendon, and meniscus. It was unclear if he’d even be able to return to football. Josey missed the 2012 season, but returned this year to rush for 1,074 yards and 13 TDs. Behind him, Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy combined for another 1,231 yards and 13 TDs.
Oklahoma State’s defense ranks 46th in total defense, 23rd against the run, and 83rd in pass yards allowed. That’s not good news for the ‘Pokes against a talented passer like Franklin and receivers like Washington and Green-Beckham. With just 23 sacks all season, OSU clearly has trouble getting after quarterbacks. They’re in tough against this Mizzou team, because if they have to bring extra men to get pressure on Franklin, he’s going to have guys open downfield, and he can find them and get rid of the ball quickly- although he should probably avoid throwing near cornerback Justin Gilbert, who has intercepted six passes this season. If the Cowboys go to a nickel or dime defense, Franklin has three running backs he can hand off to, or he can take off himself. Also of note is that OSU is in the top third of the most penalized teams. The Cowboys are going to have to be disciplined and play excellent assignment football to have a chance.
When Oklahoma State Has The Ball
The Cowboys used two quarterbacks this season. Sophomore J.W. Walsh played a fair amount early on, completing 113 of 190 attempts for 1,333 yards, nine TDs, and five INTs. Senior Clint Chelf took over in November, going 131 of 234 for 1,792 yards, 15 TDs, and six picks. The passing game ranked 29th in nationally, with nine different players catching at least one TD pass, but senior Tracy Moore led the team with just 638 yards and six TDs. The run game ranks 64th, led by Desmond Roland’s 745 yards and 12 TDs. Jeremy Smith has another nine TDs on the ground, along with six from Chelf. The offensive line did a nice job protecting both quarterbacks, allowing only 11 sacks all year. That’s especially impressive given that all three interior linemen were new starters this season.
Missouri’s defense left a bit to be desired this season, ranking 69th overall, 50th against the run, and 99th in passing yards allowed. They did, however, have 18 interceptions. With all those picks, it’s not surprising that the Tigers have the fifth-best turnover differential in the country at +16. The man to watch for on Mizzou’s defense is senior defensive end Michael Sam, who has 10.5 of the Tigers’ 38 sacks, and does something noteworthy seemingly every game. Chelf is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly and accurately if the passing game is going to succeed at all. On the ground, pounding the ball with Desmond Roland, the bigger of the ‘Pokes two backs, may be the more productive option. At 6’2, 210 pounds, Roland isn’t huge, but he’s bigger than a lot of college rushers. Missouri proved this season that they can keep up with speedy SEC backs.
Prediction:
You know the saying, “Familiarity breeds contempt?” I think that will apply to this game. These teams were conference mates through 2011, and they know each other well. Missouri, I think, still feels the need to prove they truly belong in the SEC, and as for Oklahoma State, well, who isn’t dying to beat the SEC? I won’t be surprised if this game gets a bit chippy. Talent-wise, I see the teams as somewhat similar, but I like Missouri’s offense a bit better, and I think that ball-hawking defense of theirs could make a real difference. Missouri 34, OSU 27
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