It’s the granddaddy of them all, matching Big Ten champ Michigan State against Pac-12 winner Stanford! These teams have a lot of similarities, and if you like defense, don’t miss this game- the Spartans and the Cardinal are two of the country’s best in that department. New Year’s Day, 5pm EST, ESPN
When The Spartans Have The Ball
Sophomore QB Connor Cook won the starting job for the Spartans this season, and solidified his position with a one-loss season in which he threw 20 TDs and just five picks. Michigan State, as you would expect, leans heavily on the running game, but Cook has done a nice job spreading the ball around when they do throw. Bennie Fowler is the leading receiver, with 525 yards and six TDs, but there are eight other players on the roster with at least one receiving TD. Junior Jeremy Langford is clearly the guy to focus on in the ground game, with 1,338 yards and 17 of the Spartans’ 22 rushing TDs. Nationally, Michigan State ranks 82nd in total offense, 89th in passing offense, and 51st in the run game. The offense is also careful with the football- Michigan State is a +14 in turnover margin, tied for sixth nationally.
Stanford’s defense was inconsistent throughout the year, ranging from excellent to average depending on the game. The Cardinal finished the season ranked 15th nationally in total defense, and third against the run; they also had a total of 98 tackles for loss and 40 sacks. Fourteen of those sacks, the second-most in the country for a single player, belong to linebacker Trent Murphy. Another individual to watch is linebacker Shayne Skov, a finalist for the Butkus Award. Stanford is definitely better at stopping the run than they are at defending the pass, and that’s not great news for Sparty. The experienced front seven of the Cardinal will likely show some unusual front and formations to confuse a quarterback who is still somewhat green in Cook. They should also be able to key in on Langford, meaning someone else will have to step up if the Spartans are going to get anything going on the ground. Cook is mobile enough, but he’s no Tim Tebow or Robert Griffin III.
When the Cardinal Have The Ball
Quarterback Kevin Hogan threw for 2,487 yards and 20 TDs this season. Wideout Ty Montgomery emerged as the main receiving threat following the departures of tight ends Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo to the NFL. Montgomery caught 58 passes for 937 yards and 10 TDs. Devin Cajuste and Michael Rector combined for another 978 yards and eight TDs. However, the strength of the Cardinal offense is on the ground. Like Michigan State, Stanford has one dominant running back in Tyler Gaffney. Gaffney has 306 carries for 1,618 yards and 20 TDs. There’s a lot of experience along the line, where four of the five players are at least two-year starters. Left guard David Yankey is one of the best in the country. These offenses are similar in many ways, but the big difference between the Cardinal offense and that of the Spartans is Hogan. He’s more experienced than Michigan State’s Cook, and more mobile as well, having rushed for 314 yards and two TDs. Gaffney’s dominance has meant that Hogan hasn’t had to rely on his feet very often, but it’s something the Spartans’ defense cannot overlook.
That Spartans’ defense took a big hit earlier in the week when it was announced that linebacker Max Bullough was suspended for breaking team rules and would not play in the Rose Bowl. Head coach Mark Dantonio wouldn’t elaborate on what rule(s) Bullough broke, but said that he had confidence in whoever replaces him. As a whole, Dantonio’s defense ranks at or near the top in almost all major stats: first in total defense, 2nd in rushing defense, fifth in passing yards allowed, and so forth. They’ve also sacked opposing quarterbacks 31 times and picked off 16 passes. The defensive line versus Stanford’s offensive line should be a great battle. Several members of this defense will be playing on Sundays at some point in the future, but two to watch in this game are senior linebacker Denicos Allen and senior corner Darqueze Dennard. Dennard won the Jim Thorpe Award this season, awarded to the nation’s best defensive back, and if the Cardinal are smart, they won’t throw to his side of the field very often.
Prediction:
Michigan State has the slightly better defense, but I think Stanford has the slightly better offense, and the experience level of Hogan, Montgomery, and Gaffney comes into play. Stanford 17, Michigan State 13
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