The final 2 weeks of the NFL regular season are football’s Christmas Eve, right before the playoffs arrive. And with the current playoff scenarios involving all sorts of teams, the playoff races in the AFC and NFC are tighter than anything seen in recent memory. And with tight playoff races comes teams on the outside looking in. So without further ado, I present the teams in both conferences (on the outside looking in) that I feel have the best/worst shots at getting into the playoffs.
AFC
Best Shot: Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins are 8-6 currently. Tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the same record (though BAL owns the tiebreaker having previously won against Miami), there’s no doubt that Miami has the easiest chance at making the postseason of the AFC teams on the outside looking in. In fact, they could actually have a better shot than the Ravens do.
Though Baltimore has the tiebreaker, they also face a difficult test in their final two games against the depleted yet very good New England Patriots and a division showdown at Cincinnati against the Bengals. On the other hand, Miami’s final 2 games are against the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. Though they have lost to Buffalo, they should be expected to turn things around in this matchup. The Jets will provide slightly more of a challenge, but their weak offensive numbers will put in a little breathing space for Miami. In addition, the scenarios for San Diego and Pittsburgh are too complex to actually happen in my opinion.
Worst Shot: Pittsburgh Steelers
I do not see the Steelers making it into the playoffs this time around. The amount of scenarios that need to happen, in addition to their 6-8 record, will make it near impossible for the Steel City squad to gain the 6th seed. Though they have a shot at beating the Green Bay Packers and the Cleveland Browns, and although they have made an impressive comeback, winning 6 of their last 10 games, the damage has already been done thanks to their 0-4 start on the season.
NFC
Best Shot: Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are in 3rd place in the NFC North after suffering a heartbreaking loss to the Ravens at home. Fortunately for them, their remaining schedule is actually the easiest among undecided playoff teams in the NFC, playing poor teams in the New York Giants and the Minnesota Vikings in their final 2 games. They should have an easier game against the Vikings, who in spite of having a decent offense (ranked 13th in total yards in the NFL with 4954) have a horrible defense (especially in the pass attack, where they’re ranked 30th in PYPG with 290.6). The Giants have a much more stable defense, yet struggle on offense, so this can be a sigh of relief for Detroit as long as Matthew Stafford and company provide big numbers.
Another reason why the Lions have the best shot of teams on the outside looking in to make the postseason is due to the schedules of their division foes. The Chicago Bears especially have a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly, and depending on if Aaron Rodgers does come back, they will have an even tougher matchup with the Green Bay Packers in Week 17. For the Packers, their inconsistent play could prove costly against the Steelers, and if Rodgers does not come back, will have a tough time against Chicago. Providing Detroit plays stellar in the final 2 games, they should have no problem reclaiming the NFC North. Though Dallas faces the struggling Redskins, their matchup against Philly in Week 17 will prove difficult, so Detroit should have the best shot of clinching all the way.
Worst Shot: Arizona Cardinals
The 9-5 Arizona Cardinals have the unfortunate circumstance of being a good team in a great division. Since they are out of reach for the NFC West division title (Seattle is 12-2), they face the toughest remaining schedule among potential playoff teams. These final 2 games consist of Seattle and San Francisco. Since Seattle’s track record at home is in its own untouchable league, and since they have the best defense in the NFL (having only given up 3913 total yards), this will provide the biggest test for new head coach Bruce Arians and his Cardinals squad.
The next matchup will be at the University of Phoenix against the 49ers. Although Arizona’s offense is better than the poor efforts from San Francisco (ranking 19th compared to SF’s 27th in total yards), the same cannot be said about their defense. San Francisco is ranked 3rd in the NFL for total yards given up, slightly better than the Cardinals 7th ranked defense. That said, obviously the Cardinals will have an easier matchup against the 49ers, who currently hold the 2nd Wild Card spot. But since the 49ers won the previous matchup, they hold the tiebreaker. It is very crucial for Arizona to focus entirely on winning at Seattle, but I do not see that happening sadly. There’s a chance it could happen, but if things keep going the way they are, Arizona will be eliminated.
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