To say that 2013 has been a disappointment for the Houston Texans would be an understatement. Having won the AFC south for two years in a row, the team is currently on a 12 game losing streak. As long as this run continues (which looks highly likely with remaining games against the Broncos and Titans), they will end up with the first overall pick and their worst regular season record since 2005.
In many ways, this year has been a bizarre one for Houston’s second franchise. They won their first two games of the season and have lost 75% of their games by one touchdown or less. Their defense has been strong, they’re currently in the top ten in the league for yards allowed per play, and have allowed opposing signal callers to complete only 59% of their passes. Lead back Arian Foster averaged an impressive 4.5 yards per rush before he was injured, which is good enough to be in the top 15 in the league, while Ben Tate sits 21st with 4.2.
So with all these positives, why have the Texans performed so poorly? Three things stand out when you look at the statistics. Firstly, the team has had a major issue at QB. Although both their starting signal callers rank in the top 25 for yards per game and Matt Schaub ranks in the top 15 for completion percentage, this does not tell the whole story. They both rank outside of the top 30 in ESPN’s total QBR metric, which gives a more accurate representation of how a QB has played. They have also both contributed to the Texans ranking in the bottom six for interception percentage on offense and third last for points scored per game.
The other issues are not directed at any specific positional group, but are big concerns none-the-less. The biggest issue has been in the end zone. The offense has failed to put up points all season, as seen by their position as one of the bottom three teams for points per game, points per play, touchdowns per game and red zone scoring percentage. Unless the team starts to convert more chances into touchdowns, they will not start winning games anytime soon. Their defense has suffered a similar problem. Although they have been good a stopping the opposition from putting up a lot of yards, especially through the air, they are second to last for points conceded per play and red zone scoring percentage allowed. Any one of multiple reasons could be to blame injuries, poor play, play-calling or scheme.
The defense has also had major problems trying to turn the ball over. They rank dead last in interception percentage when their opponent has the ball and have averaged only 0.7 takeaways per game. It is interesting to note that this season has also seen a large drop off in the amount of sacks the team is getting. Last year they were sixth for sacks per game, yet this year they rank 25th. Whether it is the secondary or front seven to blame, there are issues which need solving.
This conveniently leads me to the draft. There are different directions the team could take if when they have the first overall pick.
Here are the most likely options:
Teddy Bridgewater- QB
Quarterback is undoubtedly the most important position on every football team. It is no surprise that many of the franchises that have drafted early in recent season have needed a QB. Although some believed that Case Keenum could be the answer in the long term, the hometown hero has fallen short of the mark. As a result, I expect to see the Texans take a QB early. If they take one with the first overall pick, one player stands out, Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater. He has had a strong season, finishing in the top 3 for completion percentage and top 5 for QB rating. He is a fantastic, pro-ready signal caller, although not all believe the hype.
Anthony Barr, OLB
As I mentioned previously, the Texans defense has had trouble trying to force sacks and turnovers this year. Barr has made his name in the past two years doing just that. This year he had 20 tackles for a loss (5th in the FBS), 10 sacks (13th) and 6 forced fumbles (1st). What makes this even more amazing is that until 2012, he had spent his whole career on offense. Although this means he is still a bit raw, he has the potential to become much more than just an upgrade over Brooks Reid at OLB and a compliment to JJ Watt.
Other options
These are just two players of many the Texans could select. If they see past his poor season and character concerns, Jadeveon Clowney is a viable option to play across from JJ Watt, and he would make more sense than Barr if they decide to switch to a 4-3. If the front office decides that they don’t want Bridgewater, Derek Carr is the next best QB. The Fresno State player leads the FBS in passing yards, and has a more prototypical build. But the biggest problem may be the failure of his brother, David Carr was taken by the Texans with the first overall pick in 2002, yet turned into one of the biggest draft busts in history.
Another one of the best players in the class is offensive tackle Jake Matthews. Although he would make a great addition to the team and fill an issue spot at RT, there are bigger priorities and the Texans don’t need an LT as they locked up pro-bowler Duane Brown in 2012 for six years. Although unlikely, the team could trade down if they felt they could benefit from more draft picks. With the calibre of some of the players towards the top of the draft, I would expect a lot of teams to be interested. If they can find a situation where they can get a large enough haul for the no. 1 overall pick and still select one of the top players that they like, I would not be shocked to see this happen.
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