The initial reaction from the UK’s media was a pretty glum one when England were drawn into Group D of next the 2014 World Cup along with Uruguay, Italy and Costa Rica. Who could blame the media for having that perception?
The Sun had a headline the day after the 2010 World Cup Draw with EASY: “England, Algeria, Slovenia, Yanks”, but the headline for this draw was “Lord Help Us” with Rio de Janeiro’s Christ the Redeemer statue as their chosen picture to accompany their humorous headline.
With the fourth place team from the last World Cup, the finalists of Euro 2012 and… um… Costa Rica… then anybody’s reaction would immediately be a negative one from an English perspective. Even the Chairman of the Football Association, Greg Dyke, indicated to Roy Hodgson that there is no hope of England getting out of the group stage by figuratively cutting his throat.
My personal reaction to the draw was also one filled with pessimism. Yet after reviewing the group, the situation may not be so bleak after all for England. Here is how I break down England’s opposition.
Uruguay: The seeded team of this group is proof that FIFA’s world rankings are skewed and unfair. For all the hype that Uruguay bring going into this World Cup, they should definitely not be considered as one of the favourites to go far in this competition.
Here are the positives that England should take into consideration when entering the Arena de Sao Paulo. Uruguay struggled to qualify for the tournament. They finished fifth in the CONEMBOL qualification stage, behind supposedly inferior teams in Chile and Ecuador, meaning that they had to beat Jordan in the playoff stage in order to progress.
Uruguay does have a deadly trio of a strikeforce in Luis Suarez, Edison Cavani and Diego Forlan, but if you take away these three strikers then what you are left with is an experienced supporting cast, but one could consider this squad to be too experienced yet not all that talented.
Admittedly it will still be difficult for England to get the win in Sao Paulo considering that this is Uruguay’s home continent (if that actually means anything) and the fact they have achieved semi-finals in both the last World Cup and in the Confederations Cup this year.
Italy: The Italians have recently become known as a “team of smiles”, far from the negative and defensive football that produced World Cup glory in Germany seven years ago.
This is the team that England should have the most cause for concern about. Germany’s head coach, Joachim Low stated that the Italians are arguably one of the trickiest teams to play against. He should know since the Italians put the Germans out en route to the Euro 2012 final. The Italians also knocked the English out in the quarter finals in the same tournament and they also have experience of playing competitive football in Brazil recently with their Confederations Cup performance.
Italy’s squad has some experienced leaders amongst their ranks with Gianluigi Buffon, Andrea Pirlo, Daniele De Rossi and Giorgio Chiellini set to lead a bunch of players who are in their prime. Undoubtedly this squad is dangerous, but scoring goals in this tournament might be a concern for the Italians. They don’t really have a great striker outside of Mario Balotelli on their books; the only striker that has scored more than ten goals other than Balotelli is Genoa’s Alberto Gilardino, though thanks to his form in Serie A so far this season, the time may be now for Fiorentina’s Giuseppe Rossi. Needless to say, the goals are more likely to come from their talented midfield rather than their forwards.
Costa Rica: Cannon fodder. That is all. The only positive thing I can say about Costa Rica is that they may be more accustomed to the Brazilian climate, but all three teams will be looking to beat this team by a significant margin.
The other question that should be asked here is how should England approach Group D if they are to qualify for the knockout stages?
The minimum amount of points England should aim for is five. Draws against Uruguay and Italy are definitely achievable whilst a win against Costa Rica should happen.
One would expect England to play the sort of football that they did during their Euro 2012 campaign: compact and well-organised defensively. It was ugly and negative on one hand, but it certainly worked for Roy Hodgson’s men. England’s attacking options are limited outside of Wayne Rooney and therefore we see players like Andros Townsend and Danny Welbeck, who are by no means extraordinary talents, start for the squad because they fit into Hodgson’s desired system.
I reckon they will play this turgid system against both Uruguay and Italy and do enough to get the draws. They will approach Costa Rica with the exciting gusto of their last two qualifying campaigns and attempt to get a huge result against the Costa Ricans.
If they play like this then second place is achievable. Costa Rica will not gain a single point in the group. Therefore it comes down to Uruguay vs Italy as the crunch game for England; if this game is a draw then England might be screwed as it could be possible that all three teams end up on five points, assuming England do indeed get the draw against both Uruguay and Italy. If this ends for a win between one of these squads, then expect England to qualify for the knockout stages.
England may not be in the best group and they are far from being contenders for winning the tournament but to suggest that they are already out before the competition has begun is just sheer stupidity.
I’m not being overly-optimistic by saying this but a quarter-final appearance is on the cards as long as they play the same organised football that saw them reach the same stage at the European Championships. If they do that, then the result will take care of itself.
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