So I made my predictions on the teams that we will likely see in the Final Four in March – the same predictions that will prove to be 100 percent accurate, I might add. It is time to take a look at the teams that will likely face some adversity in their journey to the tourney.
Duke
This one is painful for me to admit. As a long time Blue Devils fan, I must say that Duke will likely face some trouble this season leading up to March. This is one instance I hope I am wrong.
Duke is historically one of the most successful teams in NCAA men’s basketball history; Mike Krzyzewski has coached for 33 years and the program always gets some of the top high school talent in the country. The problem is, they have a relatively young team, led by a freshman and a sophomore, and they need all parts of the team to step up significantly on defense.
One of the worst defensive teams the Blue Devils have had in the Krzyzewski era, which was clearly seen in their losses to Kansas and Arizona, will have serious trouble against top tier ACC teams come January if they don’t improve. They took a step in the right direction when they defeated Michigan on December 3. The team is averaging over 86 points per game, good for 19th in the country. The problem is, they are giving up over 73 PPG to opponents.
The key for Duke is to get Rasheed Sulaimon off the bench and back onto the court. Sulaimon, who had an outstanding freshman seasom last year, is having trouble with preparation and isn’t getting playing time.
The Blue Devils will survive until the new year but will face some tough challenges in Notre Dame, Syracuse and North Carolina. The team’s only two loses have come to highly ranked teams, so they still have time to improve. They can’t afford any losses to “easy” teams.
North Carolina
As I mentioned above, Duke will have some trouble with this Tar Heels squad, which trust me is a very hard thing for me to admit. Luckily for Blue Devils fans, UNC might have one of those nights like they had against Belmont and UAB.
The Tar Heels are a funny team; one night playing terribly and losing to very un-ranked teams and the next defeating the top ranked team in the country. The positive for UNC is that they lost close games to the un-ranked teams and man handled Michigan State. The negative is that they have the same tough schedule as Duke since they are also in the ACC. It’s actually even tougher as they have a date with Kentucky next week.
The team is still without the services of Leslie McDonald and P.J Hairston, the latter being their best player last season. Neither has a return penciled in anytime soon, as they are both under investigation by the NCAA, which pertain to eligibility violations. The loss of both men is a significant blow to the program.
The silver lining for one Tar Heel is playing time. Marcus Paige has had the opportunity to step in as starter in the absence of Hairston and McDonald and he sure has taken advantage of it, leading the team in points, assists and three-point percentage per game.
How far the Tar Heels go this year will solely depend on which team shows up every night. They can’t afford any more loses to unranked teams and have to be dominant in games against ranked opponents, like they were against the Spartans. Even if both teams end up being terrible, I still get to look forward to the greatest rivalry in sports, Duke/UNC.
Kansas
You might be wondering why in the world I have the Kansas Jayhawks on this list. Well let me tell you right now: they are extremely young, distractible, and naïve.
Don’t get me wrong, they are a phenomenal basketball team with endless potential and one of the best young players in the country in Andrew Wiggins. They just underestimate opponents and play extremely casual basketball. This is best seen in the team’s losses to Villanova and Colorado. This trend cannot continue if they hope to go deep in March.
The loss to Colorado on Saturday stings a lot for the Jayhawks. They managed to keep it close throughout and lost on a stunning buzzer beater. The point is if Kansas is as good as they are supposed to be, they should have blown out unranked Colorado.
They have an incredibly difficult journey to the tourney with San Diego State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Baylor lying ahead, just to name the currently ranked teams. Throw in teams like Texas and New Mexico and the Jayhawks could have north of 10 losses by March.
Secretly, I’m cheering for Kansas because of Wiggins and the fact he’s Canadian. Can you blame me? It’s not very often you get a highly touted Canadian in the NCAA, though it does appear to be happening more and more with the likes of Tristan Thompson and Nik Stauskas.
Honorable Mentions
Michigan State: If having a schedule with Ohio State and Michigan wasn’t bad enough, they have a few key injuries to the players they need most. If Keith Appling, Adreian Payne and Gary Harris can’t stay healthy, this will be a long season for the Spartans.
Louisville: The loss of Peyton Siva to the NBA has really hurt this team, even if it doesn’t appear that way yet. Yes, they have had some dominating victories so far but they haven’t played anyone tough yet. The only ranked team they played was UNC and they lost by nine points. They need someone to play center, and they currently don’t have a true center on the roster. Their schedule isn’t the friendliest either.
This was a painful article to write. Even though I knew a few games into the season that Duke likely wasn’t destined to cut the nets down, this put it into perspective for me. All of these teams will likely improve drastically, especially Duke and North Carolina, as they are young and still working out the kinks. Kansas’ schedule won’t allow any room for errors so look for them to crash and burn by February.
Look for part three of this series in the coming days as I break down the small teams that will make big moves throughout the season. I will also talk about a few of those pesky teams that could bust your brackets in March.
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