Four conferences will determine their champions this weekend, followed by the selection of teams for the BCS Title Game on Sunday. Here’s a quick rundown on each game, plus my picks to play for it all in January.
ACC: #20 Duke vs. #1 Florida State (played in Charlotte, NC)
Raise your hand if you had Duke playing in the ACC Championship. Sorry, let me clarify- the ACC football championship. Yeah, me either. Duke is playing for a spot in the Orange Bowl, FSU for an undefeated season and a trip to the national championship. Blue Devil QB Anthony Boone has thrown for nearly 1,700 yards and 10 TDs this season, while completing a healthy 66.2% of his passes. However, he’s also thrown 9 INTs. Receiver Jamison Crowder has 88 receptions this season, a Duke record, and will almost certainly break the school record for receiving yards this weekend as well. Definitely don’t discount the Duke defense, either- I seem to hear linebacker David Helton’s name mentioned on highlight shows every weekend, and Helton, fellow LB Kelby Brown, and safety Jeremy Cash are all averaging over 9 tackles per game.
Everyone knows about Jameis Winston (who, having not been charged with sexual assault, will play this weekend) and the weapons around him. The Seminoles’ top three receivers, plus tight end Nick O’Leary, have combined for 33 of FSU’s 37 receiving TDs, and the top three running backs on the roster have combined for 30 TDs. Wideout Kelvin Benjamin, in particular, is a 6’5″, 235-pound beast, who has a serious size advantage over pretty much any defensive back I’ve ever seen. To summarize, this team can hurt you through the air or on the ground, against man coverage or zone coverage, indoors or outdoors, and so on. On defense, the ‘Noles have allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season (Andre Williams of BC), and their pass defense is rated number one nationally.
Bottom line: Duke is a great story, and should be extremely happy with their season. I don’t think they can hang with Florida State for more than a quarter, but I’m not sure there’s a team in the country that can. Maybe Auburn, maybe Alabama. Maybe. Florida State 42, Duke 10
Pac-12: #7 Stanford at #11 Arizona State
The Pac-12 South was there for the taking this year, and ASU stepped up and took it. Stanford won the first matchup between these teams, but that was in mid-September, and a lot has happened since. Both teams are playing for a berth in the Rose Bowl.
Cardinal QB Kevin Hogan has thrown 19 TDs this season, but he’s also thrown 9 INTs and has become a bit pick-prone of late. Hogan is a dual-threat and the Cardinal’s third-leading rusher, but Tyler Gaffney is the main man on the ground. The 6’1″, 221-pound Gaffney has rushed for 1,485 yards and 17 TDs. Ty Montgomery is the main receiving threat, with 868 yards and 9 TDs, but Devon Cajuste and Michael Rector need to be accounted for as well. On defense, the Cardinal are ranked eighth in the country with 35 sacks, and linebacker Trent Murphy leads the nation with 13. Thinking about trying to run the ball instead? The run defense is the third-best in the country.
Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly has thrown for a ridiculous 3,337 yards this season, as well as 27 TDs. On the receiving end of over 1,000 of those yards, and seven of the TDs, is sophomore receiver Jaelen Strong. Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, running back Marion Grice is injured and will not play Saturday. Grice was just four rushing yards shy of the 1,000-yard mark, and had 14 TDs, plus 6 receiving TDs. Backup D.J. Foster is a capable back as well, but between the absence of Grice and the stoutness of the Stanford run defense, expect to see Kelly airing it out early and often. Another thing to keep an eye on is whether Kelly can stay upright- while the Cardinal defense racks up a lot of sacks, the Sun Devils have been allowing more than they’d probably like to.
Bottom line: With a healthy Marion Grice, this would be a closer game. I just can’t see ASU moving the ball well enough against Stanford to win the game. Stanford 32, ASU 20
Big Ten: #2 Ohio State vs. # 10 Michigan State (played in Indianapolis, IN)
It’s the worst nightmare of maize-and-blue fans everywhere. Will the Buckeyes be ready to play some defense this week? On offense, Ohio State has been clicking all year. Running back Carlos Hyde has rushed for 1,290 yards and 14 TDs, and quarterback Braxton Miller is second on the team with 891 yards and 8 TDs despite missing some games mid-season. Miller has also thrown for 1,759 yards and 21 TDs, with just five INTs. Nine different players on the roster have at least one receiving TD; the top two receivers, Devin Smith and Philly Brown, have combined for 1,246 yards and 17 TDs. Clearly, this team can ground and pound, or air it out. Until last week, it looked as though the Buckeyes could defend against either type of attack as well. Then they allowed Michigan to pass for 451 yards. Both the secondary and the pass rush will need to be better.
Michigan State QB Connor Cook has thrown for 2,129 yards and 17 TDs since his first start in Week Two. His favorite target by far is Jeremy Langford, who has 1,210 receiving yards and 16 TDs, the only player on the roster with more than two TD catches. Sophomore wideout Aaron Burbridge has been injured but will play against Ohio State. There’s a bit more depth in the ground game, where Bennie Fowler leads (496 yards, 6 TDs) but seven other players have between one and three rushing TDs. The Spartans’ defense is currently ranked third in the country in points allowed and first in rushing yards allowed, giving up an average of just 11.8 points and 64.8 yards on the ground per game. The run defense will need to be exceptional to shut down both Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde. Denicos Allen is one of the better linebackers in the Big Ten, if not the country, and the same can be said of Darqueze Dennard at cornerback.
Bottom line: Based on last week’s performance, Ohio State has a lot more to be concerned about than their record would suggest. I’d feel more confident picking the upset if the Spartans’ offense had more depth, especially with regard to the receiving corps, but I’m going to do it anyway. Michigan State 20, Ohio State 13
SEC #3 Auburn vs. #5 Missouri (played in Atlanta, GA)
It’s One-Loss Tigers vs. One-Loss Tigers for the SEC Title. Auburn’s loss came to yet another set of Tigers, LSU, back in September, while Mizzou went down to South Carolina in double overtime six weeks ago.
Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall came out of nowhere to take the starting job and run with it this fall. Should Marshall rush for at least 78 yards this weekend, he’ll have 1,000 yards rushing as well as 1,627 passing. He’s also thrown for 11 TDs and run for 10. Tre Mason is the man at running back, with 1,317 yards and 18 TDs, and he’s complemented nicely by Corey Grant and Cameron Artis-Payne. There’s nice depth at the receiver position as well, where the team has a total of 17 TDs. The defense ranked 75th nationally in total defense, which is hard to believe of a team that only lost one game. Senior DE Dee Ford, with eight sacks, is a guy to watch.
Missouri, in just its second season in the SEC, surprised people as much as Texas A&M did last year in its first season in the SEC. I personally picked the Tigers to win just six games. Who knew? Mizzou even went 3-1 during a four-game stretch with starting quarterback James Franklin injured and replaced by a freshman. Franklin threw for 1,952 yards and 16 TDs, completing 66.9% of his passes and tossing just four picks. La’Damian Washington and top 2011 high school recruit Dorial Green-Beckham give any quarterback a nice pair of targets, with 10 TDs apiece. Running back Henry Josey, who absolutely shredded his knee in November of 2011, rushed for 951 yards and 13 TDs after sitting out the entire 2012 season. The defense ranks 52nd in total defense, and like Auburn, one the best players on it is a defense end. Senior Michael Sam is tied for ninth in the country with 10.5 sacks.
Bottom line: I couldn’t be happier for Missouri, and in particular for RB Henry Josey, who couldn’t be 100% sure he would play again after his 2011 knee injury. However, Auburn is firing on all cylinders right now, and they have a massive amount of momentum after last week’s game. Auburn 31, Missouri 20
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