On Saturday, November 30th the UFC brings an end to its 18th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Featured will be two TUF final bouts including a lightweight battle taking spotlight in Las Vegas. Nate Diaz and Gray Maynard both come into their bout in hopes of rebounding from TKO losses.
Diaz, who lost in May to Josh Thomson, is on his third two-fight losing streak since being in the UFC. Maynard is coming off just his second loss in the octagon. This is a matchup of two of the most decorated lightweights to have never worn UFC gold. They each bring different styles into the octagon as well as vastly different attitudes. But, as we all know, no match is won with trash talk.
Since their last meeting in early-2010, (and their meeting in 2007 on The Ultimate Fighter 5) both fighters have grown and changed as competitors. Styles have improved and both have gotten stronger. Let’s take a closer look at how these two match-up and who holds the edge on paper.
TAKEDOWN
There is a notable difference on how these fighters utilize the ground game. Diaz averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes whereas Maynard averages over 2.5 per. Maynard has become one of the more accurate and active takedown artists at 155, but he’s also one of the hardest to take to the mat. He defends 86% of takedowns. However, Maynard is more of a wrestler than a submission artist and has a tendency to grind out victories with wrestling rather then look for the finish.
Rather, Diaz is very active on the ground. He only lands 27% of his takedown attempts, but attempts about 1.5 submissions per fight. With that much activity, it is no surprise that he has 10 submissions while under the ZUFFA umbrella. Maynard has zero.
This is quite the toss up due to the different uses of the takedown. Maynard’s takedowns lead to his wrestling. Diaz uses his takedowns to lead to submissions.
Two different fighters with two different mindsets.
UPPER HAND: Maynard. His strength is his wrestling and it is some of the best at 155.
STRIKING
This is where these two fighters are more evenly matched. Diaz, just like older brother Nick, has become known for his striking ability. That ability sometimes leads to an overconfidence that can backfire. Nate lands 42% of his strikes, but only defends 57% of shots thrown at him. The upside of his strikes though is that he lands about three significant strikes per minute. That can lead to more damage and a higher possibility of knocking out his opponent.
Maynard may not land as many strikes, only 31%, but he defends over 70% of opponents’ strikes. The power of those strikes may not be there like Diaz, only one knockout win, he doesn’t absorb as many significant strikes thus allowing less damage.
UPPER HAND: Diaz. With older brother Nick and boxing coach Richard Perez in his corner, Nate should have a slight advantage in striking.
ENDURANCE
The Diaz brothers are known for their above average cardio and Maynard trains alongside some of the hardest working fighters in all of MMA, but one has been known to outlast his opponents. This test might come down to Maynard’s All-American wrestling background. Diaz has had his endurance tested throughout his career, but of the nine fights in his career to go the distance Diaz has only won twice. Maynard on the other hand has been on the victorious end of nine decisions throughout his career.
UPPER HAND: Even. This bout has the makings of going the full five rounds and being a very close main event.
PICK
This wouldn’t be a complete breakdown without making a pick. As even as these two fighters are matched and the immeasurable characteristics (i.e. attitude, training regiment, heart) it is quite difficult to figure out who has the overall upper hand. With that being said my pick is Gray Maynard.
The lightweight out of American Kickboxing Academy has been in a lot more high profile fights and is best when he believes there’s something to prove. He has already lost twice to Diaz (once by decision and once by submission), which should add extra motivation for him. Also, unlike Diaz, Maynard isn’t known to allow himself to get caught up in pre-fight antics.
That being said, Diaz will put up a great fight and force a decision but Maynard is more than capable to grind out a decision victory.
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