Frost on Fantasy- Play Your Stars Right, Week 11

Welcome to the latest edition of my ‘play your stars right’ fantasy football article. The format is a play on a classic British game show, play your cards right (known as ‘Card Sharks’ in America). Each week I take a look at the scores of various players in their previous game, and predict whether they will score more or less this week. So we have our cards, all we need now are our players…

Drew Brees has been a fantasy monster this year, and has been greatly overlooked due to Peyton Manning’s exceptional season. He has put up over 30 points in four out of games this year, and has not put up less than 15 points since week two. Although he was fantastic last time against Dallas, things won’t be so rosy against San Francisco.

Firstly, this week’s opponent is much tougher. The Cowboys have allowed the most fantasy points quarterbacks this year, and have conceded more passing yards than any other team. But the 49’ers have allowed on average only 13.81 points to QBs in the last four weeks, roughly 50% less than the Cowboys. They have also limited 3 signal callers to their lowest score of the year this season.

You also have to be concerned by the record of players who have put up over 30 points in a game. Quarterbacks have done that 16 times this year, of which Brees has contributed ¼. When looking at the players following game, only once did he put up 30 points the week after.

In fact only three times has someone put up more than 20 points the game after putting up 30, and only 36% of the time did the player achieve more than 50% of his big score the following week. Although you should still start the Perdue product with confidence, especially as he is averaging over 21 points in his last four games, expectations must be tempered considering his match and history.

Jennings has rewarded his owners recently, and is the 5^th highest scoring RB in the last two weeks. This form should continue away against the Texans today. Houston are 7^th for rushing YPA allowed at home this year, and have been nearly 40% worse in this area at Reliant Stadium when compared to away games. And things get only more positive for owners of Jennings, as the Raiders are 8^th for rush play percentage, both for the season and in the last 3 games.

The former Jacksonville Jaguar also leads the Raiders RBs in YPA, and is 4^th on the team for receiving yards. With Terrelle Pryor out with injury and Matt McGloin starting, expect to see the Raiders run a lot. As a result I would not be surprised if Jennings surpasses his total of 20 rushes in his last game, and as a result exceeds his previous points total.

After an unexceptional start to his time at the Browns, Bess had by far his best game of the year from a fantasy perspective last time out. And although Bess has been made a difference for the Browns this season (he is second among receivers for 1^st downs per catch), don’t expect him be so helpful for your fantasy team.

The main question surrounding Bess is where the points would come from on a weekly basis. The former Dolphin has exceeded 25 yards only once since week three, and averages under 32 yards per game this season. Without a lot of yards, you have to rely on Bess scoring TDs for him to have any value. But he finds the end zone so rarely that he cannot be trusted week in, week out. In fact 14 players have put up more receiving TDs this season than he has since 2011.

But that’s not all. As Neer Shah pointed out in his fantastic article on wide receivers a few weeks back, Davone Bess has had serious issues with drops this year. He has failed to catch 22.5% of the balls thrown his way, one of the worst rates in the NFL. If you combine all this with Cleveland’s tough matchup against the Bengals, who are 20^th for fantasy points allowed to WRs in the past four weeks, you can only see a severe drop off in production from last week for Bess.

(Note- all fantasy data is from NFL.com unless specified)