It is the welterweight title fight fans have been waiting for. Long time ruler at 170 pounds, Georges St.Pierre will put his title and his legacy on the line when he meets dangerous number one contender Johny Hendricks. This fight is quite possibly the most interesting welterweight title fight in the history of the UFC f0r the simple fact that GSP has ruled his division as champion for so long, and no contender has been given as much of a chance to dethrone him as Hendricks has. It is a hard fight to call, so I will be breaking the fight down and analyzing each fighters keys to victory, in order to determine who should win the main event of UFC 167.
Georges St. Pierre
To put it simply, GSP is the greatest welterweight of all time. He has virtually cleaned out his division, defeating and dominating all those that have opposed him. He hasn’t experienced a loss since 2007, and is currently riding an 11-fight win streak. There’s a reason for that success; Georges fights almost perfect and with an excellent game plan. On the feet, he mercilessly beats down his foes with a precise and powerful long jab, the same jab that he used repeatedly against Josh Koscheck that resulted in him receiving a broken orbital bone (and almost being retired from the sport). Aside from that, he has various kicking techniques, based on a strong karate foundation; he can masterfully switch from striking high to low with kicks to keep his opponents at bay, or deal damage to them. A head kick to Matt Hughes was what led St. Pierre to victory in their second fight.
St.Pierre can also incorporate spinning and flying strikes into his arsenal to keep opponents guessing and catch them by surprise. St.Pierre lands 54% of his strikes, and has great defense too (74.59% striking defense). As good as St. Pierre is on the feet, he usually uses his strikes to set up the take down. GSP is likely the best self-taught wrestler in the history of MMA. With no previous wrestling credentials, St.Pierre successfully gets the takedown 75.59% of the time – impressive for a guy with no wrestling background. When he’s on top of you, he stays there. GSP possesses some of the best and most dominant top control on the ground in MMA. So basically, it’s hard to stop him from taking you down, and when he does, he’s even harder to get out from underneath. While on top, GSP lands frequent and accurate strikes and threatens with submission attempts. He will use his gamplan of “strike, takedown, repeat” for all five rounds to win a convincing and one-sided decision. Although GSP has been deemed “boring” because of his lack of finishes and seemingly being content with just earning a decision, it’s still hard not to admire how virtually flawless he is inside the cage and that none of his opponents have found an answer for his style.
In this fight, expect GSP to use a similar gameplan he did against Koscheck. He’ll look to avoid the big power of Hendricks and stay on the outside, moving in and out with jabs and leg kicks. If an opportunity for a takedown presents itself, St. Pierre will definitely go for it and look to control Hendricks on the mat. If St. Pierre is to win, it will probably be by a lackluster decision like most of his fights – but impressive nonetheless.
Johny Hendricks
Never before has GSP faced a puncher like Johny Hendricks. A while back, St.Pierre fought a man named Jon Fitch. In five full rounds, GSP was unable to finish Fitch. When Hendricks faced Fitch however, it took only one punch and 12 seconds into the fight to leave Fitch sleeping like a baby, with no idea where he was when he woke up. Two fights later, Hendricks used the same punch (a left hook ) to stop Martin Kampmann in the first round. Hendricks threw a total of three strikes in that fight. Three strikes is all it took for Hendricks to find his range, and on the third strike he hit his target and put Kampmann away.
Hendricks is far from a one trick pony however, and can do more then flatten people out with punches. In wins over Carlos Condit and the aforementioned Koscheck, Hendricks mixed his striking and wrestling together well to earn decision victories. So, he’s also proved he has the cardio needed to fight GSP, by going the full distance in fights. What is impressive about Hendricks is that he didn’t start out as a good striker; his background is actually in wrestling. Hendricks is a 4 time Div.1 All-American and a 2 time Div.1 national champion. Based on credentials, Hendricks will actually have the wrestling advantage against St. Pierre. Johny is excellent at closing the distance between himself and his opponents; he leaps in with his strikes, covering several feet in the process. It’s very hard to see his strikes coming because of this, since he shouldn’t be able to land with such a gap between himself and his opponent.
In this fight, it is important for Hendricks to mix it up. Even though he can knockout anyone on the feet, St. Pierre is great at utilizing his range to avoid his opponents strikes, and he is great at timing fighters who throw strikes too hard and over commit by countering with a takedown (re: Dan Hardy); and that is the last thing Hendricks wants (being on his back with GSP on top of him). He’ll have to mix in strikes and takedowns to keep St. Pierre guessing. Once he manages to do this, only then should he look for the knockout.
The Numbers
GSP
– Record: 24-2
– 71 inches (height)
– 11 (GSP’s current win streak)
– 33% of wins by KO/TKO, 21% by submission, and 46% by decision
– Lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute
– 4.38 (takedown average)
Johny Hendricks
– Record: 15-1
– 10-1 (UFC record)
– 69 inches (height)
– 47% wins by KO/TKO, 7% wins by submission, and 47% wins by decision (approximately)
– 3.09 significant strikes landed per minute
– 5.52 (takedown average)
– 58 (number of seconds combined it took Hendricks to knock out Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann)
The Fight
In the end, I for see a new champion being crowned. Rumors have been circling that win or lose, GSP may retire. He’s been champion for so long, with nothing left to really prove. I can see how he’d begin to lack motivation for fights. Hendricks on the other hand is hungry, and wants that belt. He’s been waiting for his shot for a long time, and has expressed how confident he is. Plus, GSP always gets hit at least a few times in all of his fights. In his fight with Jake Shields, Jon Fitch and Carlos Condit (to name a few) GSP’s face was a mess afterwards. Now, in the past, from less powerful opponents, it’s been okay for GSP to take a few here and there (although I doubt that is desirable). However, you can’t take a few of Hendricks’ shots, you can’t even take one. He has that much power. He’ll close the distance with his leaping shots and clip St. Pierre, and that is all it will take. Johny has the wrestling pedigree that (should) allow him to defend St. Pierre’s takedown attempts.
My Prediction: Hendricks wins by 2nd or 3rd round T/KO
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