(Note- all fantasy data is from NFL.com unless specified)
After my midseason mock draft last week, I am back covering fantasy football. Although I have looked at trade suggestions and kicker and defense strategy in previous articles, I am going to return to my own style of player analysis article this week – play your stars right.
A play on a classic British game show, play your cards right (known as ‘Card Sharks’ in America), each week I take a look at the scores of various players in their previous game, and predict whether they will score more or less this week. So we have our cards, all we need now are our players…
| Colin Kaepernick-QB | Last week-27.96 | This week- lower |
After failing to put up 14 points in four of the first five games, Kaepernick went into his bye week hot, averaging 22.2 points in his last three matches. This included a demolition of Jacksonville in London, where he put up 17.4 points on the ground alone.
Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he faces a much tougher test this week against Carolina. The Panthers have allowed the least fantasy points to quarterbacks of any team this season, with teams opposing signal callers averaging twice as many points against the Jags than against Carolina. And the more you delve into the numbers, the more concerning it gets.
The Panthers have conceded the second least rushing yards per game and rushing touchdowns this year, and are the only team to have allowed opposing QBs to rush for less than 50 yards this season. As a result, the 49’ers will have to try to get the worst passing offence in the NFL going, which is easier said than done. Unless you have no other option this week, it may be best to keep Kaepernick on the bench.
| Fred Jackson-RB | Last week-9.90 | This week- higher |
After a disappointing 2012, Fred Jackson has turned out to be one of the best value draft picks this season (8th highest scoring RB, 40th ADP). Although he was upstaged by CJ Spiller’s 100 yard performance last week, I expect him to put up double digit fantasy points for the eight time this year.
This week’s matchup is a favorable one for Jackson and the Bills. Although Pittsburgh has been very good against the pass, their run defense has been leakier than a burst pipe. Opponents have put up on average 131 yards on the ground this year against the Steelers, which is second in the league. Considering the Bills put up more than double the average number of rushing yards the Chiefs allowed in their last game, expect to see Jackson and Spiller racking up yards this week.
Things look to get even better when Buffalo enters the red zone. Jackson has put up 75% of Buffalo’s rushing touchdowns this year and is the second highest scoring player on the team behind kicker. Expect Jackson to enter the end zone at least once against the team that has conceded the second most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this year.
Combine this with the return of EJ Manuel (Jackson averaged 14.4 points in the games Manuel played earlier this year, compared to 12.6 for the whole season), and I expect Jackson to have another strong game this weekend.
| Victor Cruz | Last week-8.60 | This week- higher |
Cruz has had an up and down season from a fantasy perspective. Although he has put up over twenty points twice this year, he’s only scored double digits in one other week. But I expect him to surpass that mark for the fourth time on Sunday
From a fantasy football perspective, the Giants have a gift of a match against the Raiders. Oakland have allowed the third most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, and have conceded over 85 points in the last two weeks alone. As a result, I expect the Giants receivers to have a field day, and Cruz to be a major beneficiary.
The UMASS graduate leads the blue half of New York in targets and catches, and has contributed almost a third of Eli Manning’s passing yards. I expect him to have a lot of targets, to put up a lot of yards, and possibly secure his first touchdown since week four this week.
Thanks for reading. It would be great to hear any feedback you have, or the name of any players you want me to cover in future weeks. Just head over to Last Word On Sport’s fantasy sports twitter account, @lwosfantasy, or hit me up at my personal account @N_1_C_K_F. And make sure you check out last word on sports on Facebook and Twitter while you’re at it too.
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