After unexpectedly finding myself with a little extra time on my hands to enjoy sitting in bed with a second mug of morning coffee before the working day begins, I have decided to take a delve into a few different statistics from the Premier League season so far and in particular the goals scored.
So far this season, there have been a total of 90 matches played with 219 goals having been scored in them which works out at 2.43 goals per Premier League game played, with an average of 1.33 goals being scored by the home team and 1.1 by the away side. Compared to last season, the entertainment in terms of goals is slightly down this season, with there being an average of 2.8 goals per game (1.56 by the home team and 1.24 by the away side) over the complete 2012/13 season.
The 90 matches played so far have resulted in the following table of outcomes:
Home win: 40 = 44.4%
Draw: 19 = 21.1%
Away win: 31 = 34.4%
Of those 90 matches, almost exactly three quarters (74.44%) of them reached the half time interval with one goal or less, with there being 32 matches that have reached the break goalless, 22 1-0 leads for the home team and a further 13 1-0 leads for the visitors. From this, along with the reduced rate of goals being scored, teams would appear to be placig additional emphasis on keeping things tight in the first half of matches before perhaps opening up a little bit more in the second half in pursuit of victory.
Extending that to the full 90 minutes presents us with the following table of the most common results:
1-0 x 11 = 12.22%
0-0 x 10 = 11.11%
0-1 x 9 = 10%
2-0 x 9 = 10%
From the 74.44% of matches that reached the interval with just one goal or fewer, we are now down to exactly one third of all games reaching the conclusion in the same vein.
Another statistic which is of interest to me is the amount of goals which are scored in the final period of the games from the 81st minute through to the full time whistle. So far this season, there have been a total of 36 goals out of the total of 219 which have been scored occurring during this time period, working out at 16.44% of the total number, giving us a 40% chance of seeing a goal in this period during any Premier League game played.
Fitness and concentration over the full 90 minute period are necessities in this league as even the slightest of errors late on can, and will, be punished and points cruelly squandered so managerial tactics and the clever use of substitutions can have a massive bearing on the final outcome of matches, not to mention the league title as a whole.
Going back to last season once more, there were a total of 1063 Premier League goals scored throughout the entire season (380 matches), with 168 (15.8%) coming in the qualifying time period outlined above, giving us a 44.2% chance of seeing a late goal.
This season, the following tables highlight which teams have the best and the worst records during the closing stages of Premier League matches:
Best 81-90 goals records for and against:
Chelsea 5-0
Southampton 4-0
Liverpool and Spurs 1-0
Everton 3-1
Arsenal, Manchester United and Swansea 3-2
Newcastle 2-1
Worst 81-90 goals records for and against:
Norwich 0-4
West Ham 0-3
Fulham and Sunderland 1-4
Cardiff and Manchester City 2-3
Crystal Palace 1-2
Hull 0-1
A quick glance at the first table highlights the importance of concentration in the closing stages of matches, with it being no coincidence to find Southampton flying high at this stage of the season thanks playing right up to the final whistle. It is also no surprise to see Chelsea under Jose Mourinho occupying a slot at the top of such a list, such is his fabled attention to detail.
What is even more evident in the second table is the fact that Manchester City find themselves on the wrong end of too many late goals, having let in more than any of their realistic challengers for the Premier League title – something which Manuel Pellegrini will be determined to put right, with a particularly high-profile late gaffe by Joe Hart gifting Fernando Torres and Chelsea all three points at Stamford Bridge this past Sunday afternoon.
One blindingly obvious fact of football worldwide is that goals win games and attention to detail is absolutely vital in when it comes to the critical end of the season and the various battles, whether that is for the title, European qualification or avoiding the dreaded trap door of relegation.
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