Can anyone stop Marcus Mariota and the Oregon Ducks? Can Washington beat Oregon for the first time in a decade? Which version of the uniform will Oregon be wearing?
When Oregon Has The Ball
The Ducks will have a gaping hole at tight end this week, as junior Colt Lyerla has decided to leave the team a week after serving a one-game suspension against Colorado. The depth behind Lyerla is… not deep. Freshman John Mundt, redshirt freshman Evan Baylis, and sophomore Pharaoh Brown have a combined ten career catches. Running back De’Anthony Thomas has missed the past two games and his status for Saturday is unclear, although it doesn’t sound likely that he’ll play. Byron Marshall has done a nice job in his stead, rushing for over 100 yards in each of the games he’s started in place of Thomas. In fact, with 448 yards, Marshall is now the Ducks’ leading rusher. Tied for second are Thomas and quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota’s numbers are impressive, perhaps even Heisman-worthy: 1,358 passing yards, 14 TDs, no INTs, 338 rushing yards, and 7 rushing TDs. Top targets Josh Huff and Bralon Addison have combined for 790 yards and 8 TDs.
Needless to say, Washington is going to have their hands full slowing down this attack. Oregon ranks #1 in the nation in total offense, averaging over 630 yards and nearly 60 points per game, and of course we’ve all seen how their up-tempo offense exhausts opposing defenses. To win this game, the Huskies’ defensive line will have to absolutely manhandle the Oregon offensive line, not just getting to Mariota, but getting to him quickly. If not, he’ll either have an open receiver, dump the ball off to a running back, or leave the Huskies’ front seven in the dust. There’s a fine line between not putting enough guys at the line of scrimmage to get any meaningful pressure on the Ducks QB, and putting so many guys in the box that he has receivers wide open downfield. Limiting what Mariota can do on first and second downs and putting the Ducks into obvious passing situations on third down may help. Washington also has to win the turnover battle- no small feat, considering Mariota hasn’t thrown a pick yet this year (although by writing that, I probably just jinxed him. Sorry, dude).
When Washington Has The Ball
Compared to Mariota, Washington’s Keith Price isn’t much of a scrambler. Mariota’s longest rush of the season so far was 71 yards; Price has rushed for 42 yards total. Price’s 71.3% completion rate, however, is considerable better than Mariota’s. In short, the two are very different quarterbacks. Price has done a nice job this season spreading the ball around. The Huskies have eight different players with at least one receiving touchdown, and no player with more than two, as well as five different players with at least 100 receiving yards. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins hasn’t been nearly the threat in the passing game that he was last year; this might be a good week to get him more involved, despite his late drop last week against Stanford. On the ground, Bishop Sankey is clearly the go-to guy. Sankey has already rushed for 732 yards, and he has seven of the team’s 13 receiving TDs. Jesse Callier ranks second on the team with 163 yards and 3 TDs.
Obviously, Sankey will be the guy the Ducks focus on with regards to stopping the run. The passing game will be trickier to defend, with so many targets for Price. Because Price isn’t much of a run threat, the Ducks can bring pressure and hope to force Price to dump the ball off, or hope that he rushes his throw and ends up with an incompletion or a pick. Stanford’s defensive front got to Price several times last week and knocked him around quite a bit; the speed of Oregon’s defense makes me think they can do the same.
Prediction
First, let me just say how impressed I am with the job Steve Sarkisian has done turning around this Washington team. They were a hapless 0-12 team just five seasons ago, and now we’re having a serious conversation about whether they can upset an Oregon team that’s hands down on of the best in the country. That said, I don’t see an upset this weekend. This Oregon team is too fast and too skilled, and that’s not a knock on Washington. I can only name three or four teams in the country that I would give a chance to against the Ducks. I expect a pretty good game, but ultimately I think it’ll be Oregon 48, Washington 27.
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