A week off and a commitment to getting back to the basics means the picks are absolutely going to go at least 3-5 this week. Feel the excitement!
Bronze
Cincy -3.5 over CLEVELAND – The Cleveland Browns traded their “star” running back, announced they were starting their 3rd string QB, had everyone in the media proclaim that they were tanking, then came out and played their best game of the year against the Minnesota Vikings, earning a 31-27. As Browns GM Michael Lombardi would say: In reality Richardson wasn’t really a star back for them, their 3rd stringer has shown promise his entire career (especially compared to Brandon Weeden), and NFL teams don’t tank. If you aren’t trying to win every game then you will lose the players focus and never get it back.
The other reality of the situation is that the Browns beat the winless Vikings. While the win might be huge for team confidence in Cleveland I think it matters little in the big scheme of things. The Cincinnati Bengals were picked before the season to be a playoff team with Super Bowl hopes and nothing they have done so far should have changed that. They battled two very strong NFC North teams down to the end (Chicago, Green Bay) and demolished the one weak team the have faced (Pittsburgh). The Browns put up points of the Vikings defense, but facing this Bengals team that has the ability to dominate both lines of scrimmage is an entirely different challenge. One the Browns offense just isn’t ready for. 3.5 points is a gift.
Silver
Chicago +3 over DETROIT – Getting the full three points in a division game with the better team? Sign me up. I love what is happening with Marc Trestman in Chicago and I am going to ride this team until they give me a reason not to. On the other hand Jim Schwartz and the Lions have beaten two winless teams and given the Cardinals their only victory. It’s as simple as that.
Gold
Baltimore -3 over BUFFALO – You’re defending NFL champion is laying only three points in Buffalo? What am I missing? OK, the Baltimore offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut and maybe they would struggle to put up even 20 points on the road against most teams. But the Bills are not most road teams. Their promising secondary has been completely obliterated by injuries, so much so that Geno Smith ripped them up with the deep ball last week. The Ravens offense might not be prolific but if you are giving them the deep ball they will take advantage. But even if the Ravens offense sputters the defense will be able to pick up the slack.
This Ravens defense is completely underrated right now because of who they played in week one. Against the Broncos on opening night the Ravens defense got worked – this is what happens to everyone who plays the Broncos. Before the season many people thought this Ravens D could be better than last year’s unit because of the strong additions they made along the defensive line. After week one everyone tossed those ideas out the window, but that was a mistake. Since taking on the Broncos the Ravens haven’t given up a touchdown. In consecutive weeks the defense held them in games by giving up only 6 (Cleveland), and 9 (Houston) first half points as their offense struggled to get going. The pass rush is back in full force for the Ravens. EJ Manuel proved last week his inability to handle the rush against the Jets. This one is going to get ugly.
Best of the Rest –
ATLANTA -2.5 over New England – I have seen New England pull out this type of game a too often to trust this as a championship pick, but this Patriots squad on the road in Atlanta giving less than three? New England isn’t ready.
NEW ORLEANS -6.5 over Miami – Always take Drew Brees against the team that spurned him in free agency in 2006.
NYJ +3.5 over TENNESSEE – I am not taking Jake Locker to cover points against this Jets defense.
KC -4 over NYG – Wait, I am taking Alex Smith to cover points? How do I stop? Delete. Delete. What is happening? Make it stop.
TBAY -2.5 over Arizona – Just an excuse to write this: Everyone can’t get enough of trashing Greg Schiano. He is the coach the media loves to hate, he has become the coaching version of Barry Bonds. So naturally when Schiano benched starting QB Josh Freeman this week in favour of first year QB Mike Glennon this wasn’t a move to help the football team, this was a blame shifting move by Schiano to help make him through the bye week (week 5). Please. Has anyone writing this watched the Bucs this season? The Bucs have a pretty solid team and Josh Freeman is absolutely the reason that they suck. Their two losses didn’t turn on plays he made but it doesn’t make any difference. If they won those games then they are just a crappy 2-1 team instead of a crappy 0-3 team. With a good QB the Bucs would be a really strong team and in the mix for their division title. I am not saying that Glennon is that good QB but I don’t think he could be any worse than Freeman has been and you can’t go through the season with a QB playing as bad as Freeman is without finding out what else you got. Isn’t this the perfect week to make the change? Schiano knows his defense is going to hold his team in this game against the Cardinals no matter how bad the offense is as long as they don’t turn it over. Maybe they even keep it close enough for Glennon to pull it out at the end. Glennon gets to see what it is like to face a strong NFL defense and then have two weeks to prepare for the lowly Eagles pass defense. If you are going to make this move it makes sense to do it now.
Championship Picks: 1-4-1
Season Total: 5-10-1
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