Bronze
Detroit -1 over ARIZONA – I don’t expect this to be an easy game for Detroit – the Lions never make it easy on themselves. But at such a low number I have to play the possibility that Detroit is a good, or even really good team this year. They destroyed the Vikings week 1 in a way the final score doesn’t truly illustrate. Reggie Bush may have finally found the perfect offense for him and it set the Lions off in week one – so get in on the action before he is injured for the season! The Cardinals aren’t going to roll over. They showed enough friskiness last week to be weary of this line. Their D is clearly going to be stingy again and Bruce Arians always seems to be able to find a game plan to keep his teams in games. But Carson Palmer has to face a strong pass rush for the second week in a row. This time the pressure is going to be coming from up the middle, his o-line cannot handle it and Palmer has no ability to side step the rush and deliver the football. Even if this one is close late you can count on a Palmer INT to bail you out. I think this line is at least 3 points higher if the game is played in week 6.
Silver
St. Louis +7 over ATLANTA – Atlanta is the better team, and we all know about their home record at this point but that doesn’t make them an automatic cover. Last year they only had two home wins of greater than 7 points the entire season. They simply aren’t a team that blows teams out on a consistent basis. Their mediocre Oline means they constantly struggle to find a running game and put the entire fate of the team on Matt Ryan’s shoulders. This plan always struggles when the Falcons have to face elite competition. Elite competition the Rams are not. But their defensive line is going in that direction. Their edge rushers may soon be called the best tandem in the NFL and that alone might be enough to make this game a close one. But when you factor in that this Falcons team’s main weapons are hobbled the 7 points seem very enticing. Roddy White is battling an ankle injury that limited him to two catches for only 19 yards in week 1. Julio Jones stepped up his game to replace him but he was held out of practice this week because of his own injury concerns. I think the Falcons know they are in for a tough game this week and they would be happy to walk away with a three point victory.
Gold
New Orleans -3 over TAMPA BAY – We’re riding the Tampa Bay train right into the ground. I think they are the worst team in the NFC, maybe competing with the Cards and the Vikings, but after losing to the Jets you have to give them the nod. The problem is their QB is not getting the job done and worse than that he doesn’t seem to have any support from the team or coaches. How often do these situations turn out well? On the other side New Orleans who already hung 76 points in two convincing wins over the Bucs last season seem to be on the fast track to the division title once again. It may be a battle with Atlanta all season long but the offense is right again with the return of Sean Payton. It is too early to tell for sure if the defense has improved from league worst calibre but it seems likely they have experienced atleast some improvement – and that is all Drew Brees really needs. Early in the season it pays to find match-ups between the leagues top team and bottom teams. Nobody can be sure that’s where these teams will end up, and that’s why the line is so small now. But I am reasonably sure that the team led by Drew Brees that just beat the Falcons is more than a little better than the team led by Josh Freeman that just lost to the Jets. Call me crazy.
Best of the Rest –
Carolina -2.5 over BUFFALO – There is no one on this Bills defense to keep up with Cam Newton.
Miami +2.5 over INDY – Indy just ain’t that good. Luck has to carry them, and that’s too much to ask against Miami’s pass rush.
San Fran +3 over SEATTLE – Getting a full three points and no one knows who’s going to win. I’ll take it.
Dallas +3 over Kansas City – Alex Smith is still Alex Smith, I remember he is not good. Do you?
GIANTS +4.5 over Denver – I had to grab a home team somewhere.
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