Exploring the stats, trends and figures of selected Premier League games on a weekly basis. All stats and opinions are my own.
3pm kick-off, unless stated.
Saturday
Manchester United v Crystal Palace – 12:45pm kick-off.
Relevant or not, I’m factoring out the fact Manchester United are current champions of England and Crystal Palace are a recently promoted team. The gulf between the champions and the Championship play-off winners is vast to say the least, but the last time they played the then Championship side held Manchester United to a 1-1 draw in the League Cup, going on to win in extra-time thanks to a Glenn Murray goal.
Manchester United hold a 16-6-6 (w-l-d) record over their rivals, improved to 10-2-3 when playing at Old Trafford. That record goes all the way back to 9th August 1969, which seems a little irrelevant but rivalries and historical records are important to some. In the 28 games played between the two, 17 (64.28%) have finished with only one team scoring and Manchester United have conceded just nine goals in 15 home games v Crystal Palace. In the last four seasons, including the current campaign, Manchester United have an overall home record of 49-5-4, a fairly astounding record I think you will agree. Manchester United scored an average of 2.31 goals per home game in the 2012/13 season, conceding 1.00 – 3.37 total goals per game.
In comparison, Crystal Palace have an away record of 13-38-19, admittedly in a lower league but that only serves to strengthen the stats in favour of Manchester United. Scoring an average of 0.91, conceding 1.35 per game in the Championship in 2012/13 – 2.26 average goals per game, Crystal Palace had a fairly tame away record. The step up in class to the Premier League will be a difficult task to undertake and a lot of well respected pundits, twitter users and friends of mine strongly believe Crystal Palace won’t be in the Premiership next season – and I wholly agree.
Manchester United have a phenomenal, daunting home record whereas Crystal Palace have struggled on the road for a number of years. The head-to-head record, along with Manchester United’s goals per game ratio, scoring and conceding, leads me to believe this will be a Manchester United win to nil. 2-0 or 3-0 would be my prediction.
Sunday
Southampton v West Ham – 16:00 kick-off .
Southampton are my team, but I hold no bias in my analysis. Personally, I believe these two sides are two of the most closely matched sides in the division. They gained promotion to the Premier League in the same season, Southampton finished 2nd gaining automatic promotion, West Ham 3rd going up via the play-offs. West Ham finished the 2012/13 season in 10th place in the Premier League, their home record keeping them so high with Southampton down in 14th, their home record also their strong point. Both teams come in to this game on the back of a slightly disappointing result.
A quick look at the head-to-head record tells us Southampton v West Ham is often a well contested match-up, averaging 2.58 goals per game – Southampton have scored 80 and conceded 76 in that period, 48-26 when playing at home. The record when playing in Southampton is 14-4-11 in the home sides favour, a strong record. The results in the last two seasons being 1-1 and 1-0. In a total of 58 games, 31 have had both teams scoring (53.44%) – that includes 3 of the 4 games played when in the same division in the last two season. Both teams have scored in 14 from 29 games played at Southampton (48.27%), suggesting it’s more likely both teams won’t score than will, but it could go either way.
Southampton gained back-to-back promotions in seasons 2010/11 and 2011/12, scoring an average of 2.02 goals per home game overall. When they earned their way back to the Premier League they scored an average of 1.37 goals per home game in their first season, proving their ability in front of goal remains even at this higher level. In League One in 2010/11 they conceded an average of 0.57 goals per home game, in the Championship in 2011/12 it had risen to 0.78 and again rising in 2012/13 in the Premiership to 1.26. Though their scoring power had remained, their defensive capabilities had lowered, naturally as they were playing at a higher level. They began to steady they ship towards the back end of last season and again this season, having brought in a few big signings, conceding once in their sole home game of the current campaign.
West Ham were only out of the Premier League for one season having finished bottom on 33 points in 2010/11. In that season they scored an average of 1.13 goals per game, conceding 1.84, stats that weren’t too different, though slightly better, when you just consider their home record that year – 1.26 over 1.63. When in the Championship for the 2011/12 season they scored 1.76 over a 1.04 conceding rate, an obvious improvement. Back in the Premier League they didn’t continue to improve, but they did make a significant improvement on their previous top flight endeavour – 1.18 scored, 1.39 conceded.
In summary, both teams know how to find the net at this level, but they both concede too. I expect a tight game between two evenly matched sides, as the stats suggest, but considering Southampton’s home record v West Ham in recent years I have to favour a home win by the odd goal. 2-1 to Southampton.
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