Welcome to NBA Fantasy Breakout – a 10-part series where I present you with a new player who I think is a very good bet to have a breakout fantasy season. Today I present you with #10 on my list.
When people say they can’t live without technology, I fall into this category for one reason and one reason alone – fantasy sports. I am a long time fantasy sport player. It is a passion. No, a love. I would go as far as to say that I almost can’t live without it. But unlike a parent who won’t admit to having a favourite child I will admit that of all my fantasy children I put the most time and effort into fantasy basketball. It is closest to my heart because I am a basketball player, coach, and fan.
So what makes me qualified to give you fantasy basketball advice? Well I have been playing for 13 years. Is that enough of a reason? Probably not. Lots of people play fantasy and I would guess its the second most popular thing on the internet behind, well we know what the number one internet use is. I have finished top three in 60% of the leagues I have been in all-time. Is that enough? Again, probably not. I might play with a bunch of hacks and newbs. So why listen to me? Well the reality is that more information you can access when it comes to fantasy the better. To be honest its hard to be an expert when it comes to fantasy. There are factors that neither you nor I can control as players that take some of the skill out of it. For example, how can anyone predict an injury? What I am going to do is let you into my fantasy world and tell you why I have had success in the majority of the leagues I have participated in.
Here is a list of 5 things that I do, and you can too, that can make you more successful in fantasy basketball.
- Watch as much basketball as possible. I am watching the FIBA Americas now.
- Have an idea what a good player looks like. I have coached at a national level.
- Do the research. I look at the trends and keep track of transactions.
- Have no allegiance to any team. Don’t let personal bias cloud your judgement.
- Get lucky. This is the hardest one.
Keeping in mind the five points, consider this the first installment of a ten part series showcasing the ten players that I think are going to have break out fantasy seasons. Does that mean that I think you should draft these ten guys? Of course I do; however they would have to be selected in the right round to pay off. None of these guys should be a 1st or even a 2nd round pick. If selected in the right round of your fantasy draft, any of these players could be the difference between a runner up finish and a championship.
#10 Andrew Nicholson PF Orlando Magic
Andrew is one of the players that I am watching at the 2013 FIBA Americas Championships. He is leading Canada in scoring while assisting them to the second round of this tournament with a 3-1 record. He has displayed an all around game that should translate next year in Orlando. He is showing that he is more than just a pick and pop player. By taking it to the basket and hitting the three at a 50% rate he must be opening the eyes of the Magic’s brass. The three point shot is not new to him. During his senior year at St. Bonaventure, he made it at 43% on 53 attempts. Below are Nicholson’s rookie season stats as well as his per 36 minutes averages. Most starting players or even top seven guys in an NBA rotation play 36 plus minutes a game.
Andrew Nicholson averages
| GP | M | FGM | FGA | FG% | FTM | FTA | FT% | OR | DR | TR | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FL | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 16.7 | 3.4 | 6.5 | .527 | 1.0 | 1.3 | .798 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 7.8 |
Per 36 minutes averages
| GP | M | FGM | FGA | FG% | FTM | FTA | FT% | OR | DR | TR | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FL | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 35 | 7.4 | 14.0 | .527 | 2.2 | 2.7 | .798 | 2.0 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 16.9 |
Looking at Andrew’s averages per 36 minutes, he looks like he could be a starting fantasy player without showing any improvement in his play. Everyone who plays fantasy basketball can use 17 points, 7.5 rebounds, a block a steal, a couple assists a three (because he has proven he can shoot it) combined with 50+ percent from the field, 40+ percent from the three point line, and 80+ percent from the free throw line. This is where it gets real.
Looking around the league there was only one player with similar averages or better in all those fantasy categories. That player was Lebron James. I am not saying Nicholson is Lebron by any means or even close to the two time reining MVP, however, you can not ignore the high quality all around game that Andrew possesses. Now in saying all of that, he must be given the opportunity produce those numbers. Many players who will be projected to have break out seasons in most cases not been given the opportunity to do this mainly because of minutes. Nicholson falls into this category for sure only playing 16.7 minutes a game as a rookie. Showing a growing skill set this summer should allow some added minutes to come his way. Only Magic coach Jacque Vaughn knows if that will happen this season. I think it could be a great pick to take a flyer on him in your draft and hope Vaughn likes him as much as I do.
Thanks for reading. Be sure to check back for the rest of the NBA Fantasy Breakout Players. You can follow me @NBAAnalystFaro, as well as the rest of our basketball department on Twitter – @herrickss, @giordun, @aFishCalledMatt, @NBAFantasyInfo, @mikeyy7241, @matttheballer23 and @KaineElmy. While you’re at it, give the site a follow too – @lastwordonsport.
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References: www.basketball-reference.com, www.fibaamericas.com
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