Nothing says football is back like a good old fashioned beat-down of your inferior inter-division foe. The Patriots and Bills have faced each other 25 times since 2000, and the Bills have managed to win only two of those games. That’s insane. How many things can you say you’ve tried 25 times and have only done twice in the past 12 years? Hopefully not many; but that won’t stop destiny in 2013 as the Bills and Pats are slated for two match-ups this season – the first of which takes place on opening weekend.
Bill Belichick, Brady and the boys roll into Buffalo this Sunday for a 1PM AFC East game against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills announced recently that despite a knee procedure roughly a month ago, they’ll be starting rookie quarterback EJ Manuel. I’m personally a fan of Manuel and I think he’ll help breathe life into a stale Buffalo franchise, but I don’t envision it happening this weekend. Belichick holds a 75% winning percentage versus rookie quarterbacks, and I only see him improving upon that on Sunday. Let’s break this down position by position to see how the Patriots will get it done:
Quarterback: Like I said, I do like EJ Manuel long-term, but his current NFL experience is only 32 pre-season pass attempts. He hasn’t played in two weeks due to injury, and his first four quarters of true-NFL action will be against a Bill Belichick-captained ship. The quarterback on the other side of the ball is pretty good and has some solid NFL experience.
Advantage: Patriots
Running Back: This is interesting because the Patriots do have a two-headed monster in Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley. Vereen is projected to be an upgrade over the departed Danny Woodhead, and Ridley took the league by storm last year helping the Patriots become more balanced on offense. However I couldn’t submit this piece with a shred of dignity if I didn’t give the Bills credit where credit is due here. CJ Spiller is an absolute monster and is literally the only chance Buffalo has to pull off the upset this weekend – he’s going to get the ball A LOT, and for the sake of the franchise I hope he doesn’t get injured.
Advantage: Bills
Wide Receiver: The Bills have a sneaky-decent set of receivers on their roster. Led by arguably one of the best possession receivers in the game (just ask Darrell Revis) in Stevie Johnson, the Bills also have some intriguing prospects in TJ Graham, Robert Woods, and Marquise Goodwin, but their play has been inconsistent thus far this preseason. The Patriots are rolling with oft-injured Danny Amendola (who’s currently battling a groin issue), undrafted free agent Kenbrell Thompkins, rookie Aaron Dobson. The Patriots youth showed better during the preseason.
Advantage: Patriots
Tight End: Zach Sudfeld and Michael Hoomanawanui will start for the Patriots with Rob Gronkowski continuing to nurse off-season surgeries. The Bills will go with the consistent, yet very boring Scott Chandler. The player that can make the biggest splash amongst this group from a skill perspective is Sudfeld, but he’s shown inconsistency thus far this preseason. When in doubt, talent + opportunity rules all.
Advantage: Patriots
Offensive Line: Bills head coach Doug Marrone expressed frustration with his offensive line during preseason, while the Patriots roll out arguably the best unit in the league.
Advantage: Patriots
Defensive Line: The Patriots boast arguably one of the best interior defensive lineman in the league with Vince Wilfork at the heart of this unit. The Bills fire right back with arguably one of the best edge rushers in the league with Mario Williams. Buffalo compliments Williams inside with Marcell Dareus, and Kyle Williams while the Patriots compliment Wilfork outside with Chandler Jones. Jones and Dareus, both former first round picks, are coming off semi-disappointing seasons, but are both extremely talented. Wilfork will make the bigger impact on Sunday, helping take away the Bills’ greatest strength: the rushing game.
Advantage: Patriots
Linebackers: The Bills are starting two guys named Nigel Bradham and Manny Lawson alongside rookie standout Kiki Alonso. The Pats will be starting Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes and Dont’a Hightower. This isn’t even close.
Advantage: Patriots
Secondary: This is going to be a positional category that the Patriots will consistently lose this season. I didn’t think things could get worse in the Pats’ secondary, but that was foolish of me, as Adrian Wilson just got placed on the DL (whether or not he was actually injured or given a respectful veteran-brought-behind-the-shed-and-shot is another discussion), forcing Stephen ‘Hey I’m Awful’ Gregory into a solidified starting position. The Patriots should lose this category… but… Bills will be Bills. They’re heading into this game without their best safety (Jarius Byrd) and best cornerback (Stephon Gilmore), who will be missing due to injuries. In turn, giving them the nerve to throw Jim Leonhard‘s corpse into a starting role. Leonard was just cut by the Saints last week. The Saints had one of the worst pass defenses in the HISTORY OF THE NFL last year. Leonhard couldn’t even make that team. Four days later he’s running with Buffalo’s first team defense. Brady might throw for 800 yards against this battered defensive backfield.
Advantage: Patriots
While the score may be closer then most expect, I can assure you the Bills will never be in proximity of winning this game on Sunday. I think the Patriots will come out guns-a-blazing right off the bat in an attempt to build a two score lead. Once this lead is acquired, I see them leaning on Stevan Ridley heavily to help control the clock. If they can get up by 14 or more early, New England can help steer Buffalo away from their strong suit, which is running the football. If the Patriots can force the Bills to start relying on the passing game, they’ll win comfortably.
Prediction: New England over Buffalo 31-17
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