UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis II comes to us from The Bradley Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The event features a rematch of the final fight in WEC history as Benson Henderson defends his lightweight title against the hometown boy Anthony Pettis. Their first fight, which took place at WEC 53 on December 16, 2010, was won by Pettis and was the 2010 fight of the year. The stakes are even higher this time as it is the UFC lightweight title that’s on the line this time, as opposed to the WEC lightweight title that was on the line back then. The co-main event features the return of former UFC heavyweight champion Josh Barnett, as he takes on a former champion in his own right Frank Mir. We also have a very important fight going down at 145 as Chad Mendes takes on Clay Guida in what is sure to be an entertaining fight. Brandon Vera makes his return to the heavyweight division where he’ll look to get back into the win column by defeating Ben Rothwell. Leading off the main card is a fight between two of the most dynamic 145 pound fighters on the planet as Erik Koch takes on Dustin Poirier. The undercard features plenty of entertaining match-ups as well. So it’s now time to breakdown this highly anticipated event. Let’s Go!
Erik Koch vs. Dustin Poirier
There aren’t many ways to start a main card that is better than this. Koch is an absolute stud, who up until his setback to Ricardo Lamas was looked at as a future title challenger. Unfortunately, he was handled easily by Lamas and will now look to get back into the win column. Training out of the famed Roufusport, Koch is a dynamic striker who is capable of changing the outlook of a fight via striking alone. Ironically though, he has more career submissions (seven) than knockouts (three).
Poirier is an extremely well-rounded fighter. “The Diamond” is every bit as skilled on the feet as he is on the mat. Although he has lost two of his last three fights, he is still considered one of the best fighters at 145. Even in defeat, Poirier has managed to look good as evident by his 2012 Fight of the Year with Chan Sung Jung. At just 24-years-old, Poirier is making his 4th appearance on a UFC main card, which is a testament to how good he is.
Ricardo Lamas was able to expose a hole in Koch’s game, one in which Poirer will look to further expose. In the end, I can definitely see Poirier getting this fight to the ground and hunting for submissions. I truly believe he’ll find one and end the fight via submission in round two.
Prediction: Poirier via 2nd Round Submission
Ben Rothwell vs. Brandon Vera
“Big Ben” is in a very tough spot going into this one. Although he is only 2-3 in his last five fights I can’t help but think that this is a must win for him. His overall record stands at a stellar 32-9, but he has not been able to win consistently on the big stage. This could very well be his final shot at being on the main card. His only wins in the last three years have come against Gilbert Yvel and Brendan Schaub, which further increases the importance of this fight.
Brandon Vera is also in a tough spot. He has only won two fights in the last four years. Those wins came against Krzysztof Soszynski and Elliott Marshall. Although he was knocked out in his last fight against Shogun Rua, Vera turned in a very spirited performance, which probably earned him this spot on the main card. It is crazy how Vera at one point was considered the future of the heavyweight division. At UFC 65 on November 18, 2006, Vera TKO’d Frank Mir and was immediately crowned the future of the division. Can he regain some of the glory from his past?
This is honestly a pick-em fight for me. I could go with Rothwell or I could go with Vera. I am going to have to go with Vera though. I saw just enough fire from him against Rua and that has got me thinking that he has some fight left in him. On Saturday we are going to party like its 2006 after Vera wins by knockout in round one.
Prediction: Vera via 1st Round Knockout
Chad Mendes vs. Clay Guida
Business is now picking up as this fight features two of the very best featherweights on the planet. Simply put, Chad Mendes is a savage in the cage. His lone setback thus far came to featherweight champion Jose Aldo via a knee, which was more about wrong place wrong time than anything else. A wrestler by trade, Mendes’ last two wins have come via vicious knockouts. The fact that this guy is now knocking guys out should put some fear into the hearts of other featherweights.
Guida comes into this fight with his career in a rollercoaster. Realistically speaking, Guida could very well be 0-3 in his last three fights. He suffered setbacks against Benson Henderson and Gray Maynard and won a razor close decision against Hatsu Hioki; a fight that many feel Hioki won. Despite that, Guida remains a serious threat to anyone at 145 due to his endless cardio and wrestling heavy attack. The question is, will Guida return to being an exciting fighter?
Mendes is a heavy favorite and rightly so. But Guida is more than capable of winning this fight. If Guida fights up to his abilities, his output may be too much for Mendes to handle. Sadly though, I think we have already seen the best of Guida. At this point it is easier to pick Mendes via decision than to predict which Guida will show up. Mendes wins this because he is simply the better fighter at this point.
Prediction: Mendes via Unanimous Decision
Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett
Mir comes into this fight on a two fight losing streak but in the interest of fairness, those two losses have come to former heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos and top three heavyweight Daniel Cormier. The former heavyweight champion certainly has a ton to prove as he has not won a fight since December 2011. What drives me crazy about Mir is that despite the fact that he a top three heavyweight jiu-jitsu artist, he prefers to stand up with his opponents. Lately that has hurt him more often than not.
For the first time in 11 years, Barnett returns to the octagon. His last fight for the UFC came at UFC 36. At that event, he captured the heavyweight title with a second round TKO of Randy Couture. Barnett would be stripped of the title due to a positive test for banned substances. He left the UFC with a record of 13-1 and returns with a record of 32-6. Barnett’s style of catch wrestling is very useful to him, as it is a great way to get the fight to the mat where he is whiz. While Mir is arguably better at jiu-jitsu, it is Barnett who holds a 19-8 advantage in submissions.
I really wish this fight would have taken place back in 2004 when both Barnett and Mir were in their primes. As it stands, this fight is still very intriguing because both these guys are more than capable of earning a stoppage victory. Although Mir is still very dangerous, I feel as though he is more towards the end of his career than Barnett is. In the end, Barnett wins a very entertaining unanimous decision, and Mir loses his third straight fight.
Prediction: Barnett via Unanimous Decision
Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis
First, I want to point out that I could watch these two fight at every event from here on out. All Ben Henderson has done since his loss to Pettis at WEC 53 is win. Although all of his wins have come via decision and some wins were controversial, there is no denying that Henderson is the best lightweight on the planet. Since that fateful night in December 2010, Henderson is 7-0 with victories over Mark Bocek, Jim Miller, Clay Guida, Frankie Edgar (x2), Nate Diaz, and Gilbert Melendez. Not many fighters are on that impressive of a run regardless of how it all went down. What makes the champ so good is the fact that he has no known weaknesses. His striking is very good and his ground game is even better. Let’s not forget that he is also very tough to submit. People might be turned off by the fact that his fights often go to a decision but I must say that he has been a joy to watch. And let’s not forget about the guys he has fought, which kind of justifies him not winning by stoppage.
Anthony Pettis is a bad man! If all I wrote was that it would be totally justifiable; he is that good. Pettis was already a hot prospect when he first met Henderson at WEC 53. That fight elevated him to much higher levels, not so much because he won, but how he won. Tied at two rounds a piece and with a little over a minute remaining, Pettis ran towards the cage, jumped off of it, and landed a kick flush to the face of Henderson. With that a new champion was crowned. And the kick, well, it became know as the “Showtime Kick”. Pettis has grown leaps and bounds since that fight and aside from a tough setback to Guida, he has destroyed the opposition. What makes Pettis dangerous is the fact that he is such a phenomenal striker; second to Anderson Silva in my opinion. You never know what he is going to do, so the element of surprise is always his.
Did I mention that I can watch these two fight at every upcoming event? Well I am going to mention that again. Both fighters are so much better than they were back in 2010. Does that mean that we’ll get a better fight? Possibly, but realistically speaking if we get a fight that is even 75% as good as that fight, I will be very happy. The one thing that concerns me about Pettis is his takedown defense or lack thereof. This might not bode well for him, as Henderson is the bigger and stronger fighter who likes to go to the ground. While I do not see a finish in this fight, I do believe that Henderson as he has done time and time again will do enough to win a decision. And I’ll add that he will leave no doubt in anyone’s mind, that he won the decision.
Prediction: Henderson via Unanimous Decision
Preliminaries Quick Picks
Gleison Tibau over Jamie Varner via UD
Louis Gaudinot over Tim Elliott via SD
Pascal Krauss over Hyun Gyu Lim via TKO
Kyung Ho Kang over Chico Camus via UD
Soa Palelei over Nikita Krylov via TKO
Al Iaquinta over Ryan Couture via TKO
Magnus Cadenblad over Jared Hamman via TKO
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