The first fight between Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann took place on April 1, 2009 in the main event of UFC Fight Night 18. Fans witnessed a back and forth fight that went all three rounds, with many grappling exchanges and high level striking on the feet. In the end, Martin “Hitman” Kampmann walked away with a close split decision victory. Now, fast forward four years. These two exciting welterweights will meet again at UFC Fight Night 27 on August 28.
Much has changed since the last time these two men met in the cage. Condit would rebound from his loss to Kampmann by picking up five straight wins and the interim-welterweight belt, before suffering back to back losses (one of which came against current champion Georges St.Pierre). Kampmann has gone 5-4 since his win over Condit, picking up big wins over Rick Story, Thiago Alves and Jake Ellenberger consecutively. Both fighters are coming off a loss to number one contender Johny Hendricks (Condit by unanimous decision, Kampmann by way of KO). This fight will most likely be very different from the first one. Condit has matured as a fighter and has brought in an Olympic wrestler for his rematch with Kampmann to work on his greatest weakness in takedown defense. Kampmann has come a long way too, picking up his biggest wins in the last couple years. Here’s a complete breakdown of the rematch, which has the potential to be “Fight of the Year”:
The Numbers
Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit:
- Lands 73% of strikes from a distance
- 26 wins by KO/submission (Second most in UFC/WEC welterweight history)
- 5-3 in the UFC (28-7 overall)
- Age: 29
- 5 UFC post-fight bonus awards (3 “Fight of the Night” awards, 2 “Knockout of the Night” awards)
- #2, Condit’s ranking in the welterweight division by the UFC
Martin “Hitman” Kampmann
- 74% takedown defense (4th best among active welterweights)
- Attempted 17 submissions in UFC fights (4th most among active welterweights)
- 8 of Kampmann’s pro wins he has won by T/KO
- 7 of his wins have come by way of submission
- Age: 31
- 11-5 (Kampmann’s UFC record, 20-6 overall)
- Four. The number of UFC post-fight bonus awards Kampmann has recieved (1 FOTN, 1 KOTN, 2 SOTN)
- #6, Kampmann’s ranking in the welterweight division by the UFC
The First Fight
When they first fought, Carlos Condit was making his UFC debut. This was no ordinary debut. Condit was a perfect 5-0 in the WEC and their final welterweight champion before they dissolved that weight class. Many fans already new he was and since he was a former world champion, he was given the main event slot in his first fight across from Kampmann. The fight lived up to it’s hype. Kampmann was already an established UFC fighter, having gone 4-1 in the middleweight division before a successful debut at welterweight in a fight previous to his first meeting with Condit. Kampmann, who was known as a great striker with a solid submission game, exposed what has been Condit’s biggest weakness since entering the UFC: takedown defense. He took down Condit at least once in every round (often more than that). Yet Condit was never dominated. Staying active off his back with strikes and movements, Condit was able to stand back up after being taken down and scored some takedowns of his own. The fight was pretty even on the feet, with Carlos taking a slight edge given he has an advantage in power. He was able to give Kampann a pretty nasty gash under one of his eyes. In the end, Kampmann earned a close decision that could have gone either way.
Keys to Victory
Condit: Carlos has a clear advantage in power. He is the only person to knockout Dan Hardy in the UFC, in one round no less, something current champion Georges St. Pierre couldn’t accomplish in five rounds. He’s also the only person to defeat Dong-Hyun Kim also by KO. To back up his power he has an iron chin. He took Johny Hendricks’ hardest shots for three rounds and barely seemed fazed. This is the same Hendricks that knocked out Kampmann in under a minute as well as former title contender Jon Fitch in 12 seconds. So yeah, that’s kind of impressive on Condit’s part. Condit has the better chin than Kampmann and more fire power. As shown above, Condit is accurate with his strikes from a distance. He needs to keep the pressure on Kampmann and be confident in his power and durability. If he keeps up the pressure and remains patient, he should be able to hurt Kampmann and go in for the kill. Also, he needs to avoid the mistakes he made in the first fight if he wishes to win. He often clinched up with Kampmann and that is where Martin secures the majority of his takedowns. To find success, Condit must stay on the outside and avoid the grappling exchanges, as that led to his downfall in their first fight. Finally, Carlos needs to do what he often does which is mix up his strikes. Kampmann is the more technical striker on paper, but his attacks are less creative. He throws knees, kicks, punches, etc. Condit on the other hand will use flying and spinning striking techniques, which is less simplistic than Kampmann’s striking attack. Condit needs to continue to mix up his attack, so that he’ll keep Kampmann guessing and keep him hesitant.
Kampmann: For Martin, his game plan is more simple: repeat what he did in the first fight. Condit’s first loss to Kampmann and his recent losses to GSP and Hendricks happened because Condit’s opponents were able to take him down again and again, score points and win a decision. Everyone knows Condit’s biggest weakness is his takedown defense, and even though he’s brought in an Olympic wrestler to work on this, it will still be his biggest weakness. Kampmann may have more difficulty taking down Condit this time around, but the takedown should still be his main goal. As said before, Kampmann doesn’t have the same power and chin as Condit. Condit can take you out with one shot while Kampmann uses multiple strikes to stop opponents. Therefore, Condit should have the advantage on the feet. Kampmann isn’t s pure a wrestler like GSP or Hendricks, so he won’t go for shoot takedowns. He’ll have to close the distance and clinch up with Condit like he did in their first fight. From there, he will look for a trip takedown and once in top position, will look to strike or go for a submission. If Condit stands back up, he should do the same thing again. His goal for the entire fight should be clinch, takedown, repeat. That is how I believe Martin Kampmann has the best chance of winning. If he can’t take it to the ground, he should avoid Condit’s attack and look to counter strike. He has an excellent counter right that he used to drop both Diego Sanchez and Jacob Volkmann
My Prediction
At the end of the day, I think Condit wins this fight. He has won a UFC title since the first fight with Kampmann, evidently accomplishing more than Kampmann and taking part in bigger fights. He did better against Hendricks, taking Johny all three rounds while Kampmann was knocked out brutally by him. Even in the wins against Thiago Alves and Jake Ellenberger, Kampmann had to come back from early adversity to get the win, showing that even though his striking offence is good, his striking defence and chin might not be all that great. This rematch will be more of a striking contest than a grappling match than in their first fight. Condit will avoid the clinch and look to avoid his weaknesses and use his strengths. He’ll come out and be in Kampann’s face with strikes as soon as the fight starts. He’ll find an opening like Alves, Ellenberger and Hendricks were all able to do, but he won’t get careless like Alves and Ellenberger did. He’ll remain patient, and continue to tag Kampmann over and over again. Condit will get the KO in the second or third round.
Again, Condit and Kampmann will meet at UFC Fight Night 27 on August 28, in what is almost guaranteed to be a great fight.
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