The Los Angeles Lakers and the playoffs have been a match made in heaven since birth. Sure, they’ve had their rough patches. The team has missed the playoffs just twice since 1980 (2004-05 and 1993-94), and an unreasonable two straight years in 1975 and ’76. And there was the ’58 season when the team won just 19 games. But, they were in Minneapolis then and it was, you know, 1958. Suffice to say, it’s a rarity to have an NBA playoffs without the Lakers.
They missed the postseason once in the 2000’s and once in the 1990’s; 2013-14 may end up being the miss of the 2010’s. Kobe’s hurt. Nash is old. D’Antoni’s still the coach. The Lakers are filled with question marks. And the rest of the Western Conference has only gotten stronger.
Since Shaq left and the Lakers became the Los Angeles Kobe’s, their success has largely depended on him. Next season likely won’t be much different. Bryant has been one of the NBA’s greatest players over the last decade plus.
He’ll enter this season as a 35-year-old recovering from a torn achilles. I’m of firm belief that Bryant is not human. His work ethic, determination and competitiveness aren’t matched by many. Achilles injuries, however, are not something to just brush aside. So while Bryant may be ahead of his timetable, it’s hard to believe he’ll be ready to play 35 minutes opening night against the Clippers. An achilles tear can take nine months to recover from. On October 29, when the Lakers open their season against the Clippers, just six months and 17 days will have passed since Bryant’s injury.
Bryant will be back. It’s impossible to say when, but he’ll be back. And he’ll be productive. But for once, Bryant might need his teammates to carry him for a little while.
Pau Gasol is the most important Laker after Bryant. After spending last year suffering through injuries (and Dwight Howard), Gasol is due to rediscover his elite skill. He’s 33 now, so some drop-off is expected, but Gasol is much better than the player we saw last year. Just two years ago he was averaging 17.4 and 10.4 plus 1.4 blocks per game. That summer he also dominated alongside his brother for Team Spain in the Olympics, giving Team USA all they could handle in the Gold Medal game. When healthy, and utilized correctly, Gasol can be one of the top five big men in the NBA today.
It’ll be Steve Nash’s job to help him reach that level again. Last season, Nash posted his lowest assist average, 6.7, since the 1999-00 season. Like Gasol, he struggled with injury last year, missing 32 games. Nash is the elder of the group and will turn 40 in February. He’s not the same player he once was. He does, however, still possess a lot of useful attributes for this Lakers team. His three-point shooting will definitely be needed, but his ability to run the offense is what makes him really important. The Lakers struggled to ever find a groove in D’Antoni’s offense last season, and while they still don’t have the best personnel for it, the team will be better equipped to handle it this year. No one understands that offense better than Nash. The Lakers will struggle to defend most teams. They’ll need to fill it up if they want to continue playing past the initial 82.
Then there’s the rest of the roster. Nick Young will likely start at small forward for the team after sitting on various other teams’ benches over the last couple years. Chris Kaman is not Dwight Howard, but that’s probably a good thing. Kaman and Gasol should operate a little smoother next to one another as Kaman has an ability to make a shot from outside three feet. Jordan Hill will be back, after missing most of last season. Steve Blake should be healthy again. Jodie Meeks can stretch the floor. Maybe Wesley Johnson finds some of the potential many thought he had coming out of college. Jordan Farmar is back from wherever he was hiding last season.
The fact is: none of these guys move the needle much. They’ll be breakout performances and some of them may even surprise us with their play this year, but the Lakers fate will ultimately depend on the 107-year-old trio of Bryant-Gasol-Nash.
2013-14 may be a year like 2009-10 when it took 50 wins to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Almost every team in the West has maintained or gotten better since last year (except for maybe Denver). Oklahoma City, San Antonio, the Clippers, Memphis, Golden State and Houston all seem like guarantees for the playoffs (unless the Dwight experiment fails as hard in Houston as it did in L.A.) Despite losing Iguodala, Denver, who finished third in the conference last season with 57 wins, should be among the teams fighting for the last two spots. The Timberwolves get Kevin Love back and add Kevin Martin. New Orleans has severely improved since last season. And consider me among those infatuated with what Portland has been able to do with their roster this summer.
The Bryant-Gasol-Nash big three can still be the foundation of a strong team. Strong might not be good enough in the loaded West this season though. With so many question marks surrounding their team, a lot will have to go right if the Lakers hope to see their darling playoffs this season. A breakup could be on the horizon.
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