Editor’s Note: LWOS are always looking to add very passionate fans to the writing team. We are very excited to have Rob Werkowski covering the New England Patriots for us at LastWordOnSports. Rob, welcome to the #LastWordArmy! For anyone interested in joining our team, visit our “Join Our Team” page.
It’s been an insane offseason in Foxborough, MA, and I’m ready to dive in like Ryan Lochte – I’ve got my New England Patriots official team speedo on, to go with my Belichick chopped hoody. I’m ready to get myself, and all readers, soaking wet in new 2013 Patriots information.
2012 was a great year for the Patriots – until the bitter end. As you will recall, the Pats headed into halftime of last year’s AFC Championship game vs. the Ravens up 13-7. The Patriots’ top cornerback, Aqib Talib, was injured in the first quarter, and the Ravens were able to open the game up, eventually winning 28-13. Anquan Boldin would finish the game with 101 yards and two TD’s. Before Talib’s departure, Boldin had been held in check without a single catch, but entered halftime with 2 catches for 41 yards. I truly believe the Patriots win this game if Talib plays all four quarters.
For the season, the Pats offense finished first in total yards per game, 1st in points per game, 4th in passing yards per game, and 7th in rushing yards per game – a true offensive juggernaut that excelled in every aspect.
The bad news, as I’m sure every fringe fan will have already heard about, The Pats are without their top six receivers from 2012 to start this season. Four of them aren’t on the team anymore: Wes Welker is in Denver, Brandon Lloyd is on his couch, Aaron Hernandez has a nice studio in the Bristol County House of Corrections, and Danny Woodhead is a Charger. The remaining two, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, are both highly questionable to start the season due to health concerns.
The good news is the Patriots have been here before. The last time they won a Super Bowl was in 2004… their six leading receivers that season? David Givens, David Patten, Deion Branch, Daniel Graham, Kevin Faulk and Patrick Pass – Brady threw to whoever was open (read those six again… those guys were the top receiving threats on a Super Bowl winning team).
They pounded the earth with Corey Dillon (3rd in rushing yards, 8th in TD’s).
And they won the Super Bowl with this formula.
Branch missed seven games that year to due to injury. Gronk should miss less than that. Point being, the Patriots’ last Super Bowl was won with basically no-names as the receiving threats, a strong run game, and a focus on solid defense. Shift to this year and the Patriots have better offensive talent than 2004, a strong running game, and a young defense on the rise (ranking 9th in points allowed per game).
Offensive Positional Breakdown:
QB: Tom Brady is older, but like a fine wine, remains arguably the best Quarterback in the league. He finished 3rd in Ron Jaworski’s QB rankings, and 4th in NFL.com overall rankings. Nothing to see here. Y’all know Tom.
Ryan Mallett has the skill-set to be an excellent quarterback in the future, it just might not be in New England (he’ll be a free agent in 2015 and Tom Brady will likely still be chugging along). Tim Tebow was brought in as a long-term project – don’t expect to see him in the regular season outside of maybe a handful of short yardage/gadget situations. Wait, does he “Te-bow” when his team scores and he’s on the sideline?
RB: Stevan Ridley tore the league apart last year, going for 1,263 yards (7th in the NFL) and 12 TD’s (3rd in the NFL). Shane Vereen will fill the void left by Danny Woodhead, albeit with superior talent. When Ridley and Vereen were drafted together in 2011, I imagined that Belichick was trying to rediscover the backfield success he once saw with Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk – I think they realize it this season.
Bringing up the rear are power backs Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount. While I don’t see both of them making the team, look for the one who makes it (my guess is Bolden) to see a small dose of carries/time if Ridley goes down.
WR: This is obviously the biggest question mark in the Patriots offense. Last season, over the course of the first two games, Julian Edelman started over Wes Welker. Reports pointed to the fact that upper-management was pissed at Welker for making them Franchise Tag him (read: pay him). They were looking to trade him, then Edelman went down with an injury and Welker went back to doing Welker things.
During this past offseason, the Patriots courted Danny Amendola – a player believed to be more talented in several aspects of the wide receiver game than Welker. His downfall has been injuries, missing hefty amounts of time in his young career. The Pats had a contract offer on the table for Amendola this offseason without even approaching Welker – they didn’t want Welker back.
I believe this is part of the Patriots’ efforts to revert back to their 2004 strategy (#project2004), with Amendola as their Branch, and a gathering of role players to fill the other voids. Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce were brought in via the draft to help inject youthful talent into the receiving corps. UDFA Kenbrell Thompkins, a very popular player amongst draftniks and talent evaluators, most notably Matt Waldman, all RAVED about this kid – claiming opportunity was all he needed to make waves. As advertised, Thompkins has been the talk of Patriots camp this summer. Another name to stow away is Mark Harrison, a UDFA from Rutgers. This guy drew Brandon Marshall comps, and his film is off the charts. Harrison could be special, but has been nursing an ongoing injury all camp.
The talent is here, how quickly they can translate that to on-field success will become clearer in the preseason. Throw in Julian Edelman, who was activated off the PUP list today, and I think a high-efficiency offense can be birthed from these players.
TE: Aaron Hernadez‘s absence will hurt – there’s no way around it. But there’s no place for people like him in society (if what he allegedly did is true, of course), much less on a football field. Rob Gronkowski has overcome injuries in the past, and I have no reason to think anything less in this situation. WORST case scenario he’s back for the playoffs – WORST CASE. The Patriots should be able to succeed without his presence (Both Gronk and Hernandez missed a combined 11 games last year) – please re-read the offensive stats from last year if you need reassurance they can succeed without these two.
Jake Ballard, Michael Hoomanawanui and Daniel Fells are back from last year, and I expect absolutely nothing from these three. Maybe one of them makes a decent joke that we see a fellow teammate chuckling at in-between plays during a broadcast. I wouldn’t hold out for much more. Without Gronk in the lineup, I see a very similar offensive attack to ’04, which relied little on TE’s. Keep an eye on another UDFA, Zach Sudfeld from Nevada. Sudfeld drew Gronk comparisons in his college years, from athletic ability, to (gulp) injury proneness. Bottom-line: I believe Gronk will play more than people think this season and will be his ol’ dominate self when he does. I don’t see the Patriots over-exerting him however, as his late-season absences helped derail their past two Super Bowl runs.
OL: I won’t get into too much detail, as I’ve learned people aren’t all that interested in lineman information (ya’ think?!). The Patriots have always had amazing line-play and things will be no different this year (think how many times you’ve watched Brady bopping around in the pocket with what seems like years to throw). This unit is anchored by 4x All-Pro Logan Mankins, and rising star, Nate Solder (the only Patriot besides Brady to be named to the NFL’s Top 50 Trade Assets). The offensive line will be the least of the Pats worries.
There’s A LOT of doubt swirling around the Patriots this offseason, but I think a lot of it is media hype. With Bill Belichick captaining the ship, Tom Brady at the reigns, and very talented weapons at his side, the Patriots can re-visit the formula that helped them win their three Super Bowls in a four year span. Chronic injuries are certainly a concern with a few of the ‘name’ players, but I don’t think they’ll carry nearly the effect that an injury on defense would propose.
Which brings us to the defensive side of the ball… coming soon.
Thanks for reading! Interested in writing for LastWordOnSports? If so, check out our “Join Our Team” page to find out how. Be sure to follow me on twitter for your NFL needs –@RobbyBallgame, and the follow the site @lastwordonsport while you are at it.
Football fans…check out Thursday Night Tailgate Radio as hosts Chris Mascaro and Angelo Cane chat with current and former NFL and College players. NFL stars open up on TNT because they’re regular guys, without network influence. Access the show in the sidebar on our home page or by visiting their website at ThursdayNightTailgate.com. Learn more about the show including their upcoming schedule at their page at LWOS.
