How much do you pay a forward that finished fourth in scoring on your team? This is a very loaded question with lots of variables attached to it.
The more important question is: how hard does it become when instead of a forward, your fourth highest scorer was a young defenseman that can also dish out some heavy punishment?
This is the question that the newly locked-in GM of Toronto Maple Leafs, Dave Nonis, has to answer in regards to Cody Franson. It is a big question, because these kinds of defensemen do not lie around in the UFA pool often. In fact, they do not come that often at all. The stats back this opinion up.
Our last season was very short and yet we can see that the top, big contract, defensemen scored between 27-38 points in 43 to 48 games played. These numbers are associated with such big names as Kris Letang, Ryan Suter, Keith Yandle, Shea Weber, Dion Phaneuf and Brian Campbell. What are those players worth?
Ryan Suter checks in at 7.5 million, Shea Weber has a 7.8 CAP hit, Brian Campbell is at 7.1 million per, and Dion Phaneuf has a 6.5 million CAP hit. Than you have other guys like Drew Doughty with 7 million CAP hit and Tyler Myers with 5.5 million who did not even come close to those point production totals.
Cody Franson has been improving his offensive production ever year he has played so far, with his best year coming last season, be it a shortened one. He is a restricted free agent that made 1.2 million last year. He is due for a big long term deal being a strong physical, offensively productive defenseman – and a defensively lacklustre Toronto Maples Leafs are in need of one of these types of players. So, a dream come true, in a trade that is paying off in spades that was made by Brian Burke.
So, what is the hold up?
There are now rumblings from Toronto that they might be shopping Cody Franson around due to a contract dispute. Is this a strategy to get the dollar amount lowered or is there some merit to this dispute.
TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger tweeted on Friday that trade speculation surrounding the restricted free agent will heat up, as the Maple Leafs would like to keep him but the asking price on his salary might be too much.
This is not good news at all. While RFAs tend to always stretch out these type of negotiations, because teams do not like to send offer sheets for some reason, we may be making a big deal out of nothing. Still, it begs the question of what and how much Mr.Franson is asking that Nonis is not willing to give.
According to this tweet, he is asking for 4 million plus…
@mirtle. Don’t have Leafs cap specifics in front of me, but, Franson at $4+ has to be reasoning behind trade consideration.
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 26, 2013
That to me seems like an insanely fair price especially since Nonis just handed out big deals to Bozak (6 years at 4.2 per) and Clarkson (7 years at 5.2 per). Both of those players had less points than Franson, and played more games than Franson last season. Something is not right here and if they are shopping him around, what would they want in return to replace a solid defenseman? It is not like Toronto is oozing with NHL ready defensive talent back there. Morgan Rielly may be a great prospect, but he is 19 years old, and there is no guarantee that he is even NHL ready – never mind ready to put up a near 50 point pace (Franson’s shortened season numbers prorated come to 52 points per 82 games) over an NHL season.
If I was other GM’s I would offer sheet the hell out of this kid. Toronto has $6 million to play with and has to split this figure between Franson as well as sign restricted free agent Nazem Kadri and face a potential arbitration hearing with Mark Fraser. As we look at the numbers, Dave Nonis may have overspent the amount of Cap Space the Leafs had this summer.
An offer sheet can put a lot of pressure on the Toronto leadership.
Think about a team like St.Louis Blues. They have plenty of cap space to offer $5 million CAP hit long term deal. The cost of doing so would be a 1st round and 3rd round pick as compensation if the Leafs did not match. This is not a huge price when you consider that the Blues would not likely be losing a top 10 pick as they should hover near the top of the Western conference. There are also a number of other teams that need a solid defenseman that have a lot of space; the Sabres, the Panthers, and the Flames to name a few. The only problem with these teams is that they will be giving up rather high potential picks, although even so, in my eyes this would be worth the risk.
A trade rumor is also a very good option for the Leafs, or a better option. If they can clear some cap space to sign Kadri long term and get some picks or prospects back for Franson, this would clearly work.
There is just an endless list of possibilities for a Franson trade, because there already exists a set price for him. His value is strictly driven by this:
• $1,110,249 or below – No Compensation
• Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 – 3rd round pick
• Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 – 2nd round pick
• Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 – 1st round pick, 3rd
• Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 – 1st round pick, 2nd, 3rd
• Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976 – Two 1st Round Picks, 2nd, 3rd
• Over $8,410,976 – Four 1st Round Picks
As Franson fits in somewhere between 3.3 to 6.7 per year range, realistically looking at 4.5 to 5.3 range, he has a set worth of what a team must give up to get him. It will be foolish for Nonis to ask for anything more than what that chart dictates – and a team would be foolish to give up anything more. I would love for Philadelphia to make an offer sheet, but Holmgren might not have enough dollars left to play with anything.
In fact, Philly might be the perfect place to make a trade with. They really need a solid defenseman and will probably over pay for a guy like Franson. Florida might want to invest in this guy as well, as their forwards prospect pool is very deep and so is their goaltending, but Brian Campbell cannot be the only guy to score on the back end. Buffalo is willing to spend money, but might be snake bitten with big contracts right now, (after the Tyler Myers fiasco), and so this story continues.
It is not very clear to me which way this story will end, but I really hope, for Toronto fans sake, that Nonis makes the right decision and signs this guy long term. I wouldn’t bet against that from happening anyway, as most teams tend to fear making an offer sheet and trading away their picks. Nonis will have to work his magic, but a short deal might be the answer for both parties, something along the lines of what Del Zotto got from the Rangers. A bit more time to prove you are worth the big paycheck.
The Leafs must also remember that Nazem Kadri, their 2nd leading scorer last season, is also vulnerable to the same offer sheet rules as Franson. For a player who put up 44 points in 48 games last season, and is the closest thing the Leafs have to a number one centre, he is not someone they can afford to lose. A crafty team could do dual offer sheets here…. sign one player first, and if the Leafs match target the 2nd player. With only about $6 million left in cap space, and the fact that Mark Fraser’s arbitration award or settlement will likely eat up, at minimum, about $1 million of that; Dave Nonis has gotten himself into a sticky situation with the Salary Cap.
It will be up to the man who just got a 5 year contract extension to get himself out of it.
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