Brandon Jennings continues to survive as the most marquee free agent still available in the NBA offseason. All signs point to Jennings, a 23-year-old starting caliber point guard, believing he deserves something close to max-contract money, though no team seems ready to offer him that.
Last season, Jennings averaged 17.5 points and 6.5 assists per game; however, he did so while shooting an abysmal .399 from the field and .375 from beyond the arc. On per game averages, Jennings displayed an ability to find his own shot, while also involving his teammates, that few others matched. He was one of just eight players in the league last season to post averages of at least 17 points and 6.5 assists per game according to basketball-reference.com. Of the other seven players, five are former All-Stars and the other two, John Wall and Stephen Curry, are almost surefire selections in the future.
Among the eight players are two point guards that were selected along with Jennings in the first round of the 2009 NBA draft: Curry and Jrue Holiday. Unlike Jennings, the two point guards are already signed to extensions beyond their rookie contract. Holiday signed his extension last November for four years, $41 million. Curry also signed prior to last November’s deadline for an extension for four years, $44 million.
Holiday and Curry aren’t the only two point guards from the 2009 draft to receive extensions. Ty Lawson was among those to sign an extension last November when he re-upped for four years, $48 million. Tyreke Evans, a hybrid-position player, signed with the Pelicans this offseason as a restricted free agent for 4 years, $44 million. Finally there is Jeff Teague, whom Jennings’ team, the Bucks, signed to a 4-year $32 million offer sheet before the Atlanta Hawks matched the offer on their restricted free agent.
These five guys do the best to highlight Jennings’ market value, having entered the league the same season and received extensions after the ratification of the new CBA. And how he is valued among them will likely determine the contract he eventually receives.
By per-36 minute averages, Jennings is tied with Curry at 6.5 assists per game, though falls within 1.4 assists of the group leader, Teague. The only player he edges out here is Evans, hardly a pass-first player. On per-36 minute scoring, Jennings is tied with Lawson at third with 17.4. Again though, he is reasonably close to Curry’s leading figure of 21.6 and very close to Teague’s 16.0 at the bottom.
In the NBA of today, scoring and assists averages have lost some of their weight as the league turns to more advanced statistics. This doesn’t favor Jennings as one of the biggest knocks on his game is efficiency. Despite being in the top 16 in the league in assists per game, Jennings has developed a reputation of a gunner, often forcing bad shots at bad times. He was the only player of the six to shoot less than 40 percent last season. Part of this inefficiency stems from Jennings’ inability to get to the basket where he shot below league-average at just 42.57 percent, per NBA.com. Only 32.4 percent of his shots came at the rim and the greatest majority of his shots were three-pointers, 37.05 percent of his shots.
One of the reason Jennings struggles getting to and finishing at the rim is his lack of right-hand skills. He heavily favors his left and will often attempt to finish with his left from the right side of the rim. Beyond this, he struggles beating players one-on-one and when he can’t get to the rim he settles for contested step-back jumpers.
The troubles extend to the other end of the floor as well, where Jennings has hardly improved as a defender since entering the league. He is far from being a stopper and can be a liability at times. He’s not earning his money at that end.
Most players’ contracts are based on expected future production. At the time of the signing, many were critical about the Warriors committing four years to oft-injured Steph Curry. No one has anything to say on that front now. Jennings hasn’t shown much improvement since entering the league and his per-36 minute averages this past season were almost identical to his rookie year.
Finally, there are the off the court issues. In March, Jennings was ready to assert that should he come back to Milwaukee on the qualifying offer next season, he won’t be resigning their next summer. He was involved in disagreements with former-coach Jim Boylan. And on top of it all, ESPN and Yahoo were among sources to report that Jennings turned down a four-year, $40 million extension from the Bucks last season, though Jennings denied this ever occurred.
Despite the issues in his game, Jennings is about on-par with his peers from the 2009 draft. If Evans, another player who hasn’t displayed much improvement since his rookie year, can receive a 4-year $44 million deal, Jennings can too. The four-year $40 million that he may (or may not) have turned down is similar to what he’ll likely receive whenever his next contract comes.
That extension won’t be coming from the Bucks though, at least not this summer. The Bucks showed their hand when they signed Teague to the $8 million a year offer sheet two weeks ago. Milwaukee displayed a willingness to move on from Jennings and clearly doesn’t value him as high as they did Teague.
An offer sheet from another team doesn’t appear to be coming either (though some sign-and-trade possibilities do exist). Most teams have used up their cap space and the current market for Jennings appears to be dry.
This doesn’t mean the extension he seeks won’t be coming sometime in the future though. The likely outcome this summer is that Jennings signs the qualifying offer from Milwaukee and plays out this season earning $4.5 million. He’ll remain the team’s starting point guard and have the opportunity to prove his worth to NBA teams as he attempts to lead the team back to the playoffs. Playing alongside O.J. Mayo, as opposed to Monta Ellis, will allow Jennings to handle the ball a little more and maybe show off the pass-first game he has alluded to in the past.
Should this happen, Jennings will enter next summer as an unrestricted free agent. He could find the market a tad more friendly then when he will be among the top point guards available. When he does sign, it’ll likely fall in to the spectrum of $8 to $12 million a year for four years as defined by the other guards from his draft class. In a league flush with young point guards though, the question is, who will pay him?
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