Beat the Odds for the Grand National

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The Grand National ran at Aintree.  This is the race of the people that gets everyone involved from young kids betting with their piggybank money, to older folk using systems, form or just a lucky rusty old pin.  Everyone has what works for them.

To be honest, you must be either very clever or slightly made to have the confidence in a race run over 4 miles and 3 furlongs while jumping 30 of racing’s hardest fences.  I haven’t yet decided which will I be come 4:30 pm on Saturday afternoon on the 6th April.  On thing is for certain – I look forward to this race every year, as many race fans do, and reckon it will be eventful as always.

Let’s start with the ones who I don’t fancy.

1. First, the Willie Mullins trained horse On His Own is favourite at around 7-1 and will probably start even shorter, too.  He travelled well in this race last year before falling at the 15th.  He won a prep in a grade 2 over hurdles in February doing well to set him up for this race, but at single figure odds I will leave him alone.

2. Seabass ran a gallant third in last year’s race, but the 10-year old again looks beatable.  Best bet is to leave this one alone at a weak payout.

3. Top weight Imperial Commander is definitely the class act in the field having won the 2010 Gold Cup, but with only four runs since then due to nagging injuries, this plus his welter weight will be too much of a burden to overcome.

4. Sunnyhillboy deserves to win a big race after he came so close last year, just losing out right on the line.  He is not in the same form this year, however, so unless the magical arena brings out his best form then he has no chance.  Best steer clear.

This is a race I like to take a few chances in.  I normally back around four horses, and it’s very likely many might be surprised by some of my fancies.  No matter – come Saturday evening I will be the one drinking my winnings (well, hopefully anyway).  So here are my four tips for the race

1. Joncol – A horse I have followed for many years.  This is a huge horse who jumps great, stays well, had a few runs this year but his season has been all about this race.  With a nice weight at 10-13 at around 50-1, this is juicy value.

2. Cappa Bleu – Ran an unlucky fourth last year but has been trained especially for this race.  Cappa Bleu loves the track, jumps well and could be well handicapped for trainer Ewan Williams.  At 11-1 this is a very fair price.

3. Treacle – Trained by Tom Taffe in Ireland, Treacle looks a real contender.  The trainer has always had this race in mind for him, but things didn’t go well in the 2012 renewal as he was badly hampered and falling at the tenth.  But this could very well be redemption time!  He won nicely last time, and at 40-1 is a working man’s price.

4. Swing Bill – Is a bit of a flyer, but come on, let’s be brave!  He ran a nice race behind a couple, but at 66-1 is a huge price for a horse that loves the track.

My Tips:

1.Joncol 50-1   4e/w

2. Cappa Bleu 11-1 5win

3. Treacle 40-1   3e/w

4. Swing Bill 66-1 3e/w

Total Stake: 25               Total Winnings:

Yes, some big prices there, but hopefully some value.  Good luck, and be lucky.

photo credit: CharlesFred via photopin cc