MLB Teams are entering the final two weeks of spring training. During this time, key decisions will be made regarding roster spots, positional batters and the setting of rotations. In some cases, players will be returning to teams from the World Baseball Classic as they prepare for opening day. Every season I like to make a few fearless predictions for the upcoming season, so here we go:
We’ll do the National League today, and then the American League tomorrow, with the World Series Winner at its conclusion.
NL East Winner: I think this was the hardest divisional winner to pick, but I will have to side with the defending divisional champs, the Washington Nationals. The team is loaded with young talent and after making a playoff appearence last season appear ready to take the next one. Stephen Strasburg will be fully unleashed upon Major League Baseball, and a lineup that has Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman at its heart will produce plenty of runs for the Nationals’ young pitching staff. The Nationals will look to Gio Gonzalez to provide his 2012 form, while anticipating that Jordon Zimmerman will improve on last years numbers. Strasburg, who was limited to just 159 innings last season, will have no restrictions this year and could potentially explode for a dominating 2013 performance.
What made this division so tough to predict was due to the moves made by the Atlanta Braves during the off-season. The Braves acquired both the Upton brothers (Justin via trade and B.J. as result of free agency), to add to their blossoming group of hitters that include Freddy Freeman and Jason Heyward. Dan Uggla could return to form (that is a .250 BA with 25+ home runs performance). He and Brian McCann will be expected to provide the leadership for this young team. The Braves starting rotation could be bolstered by the return of Brendon Beachy in June from Tommy John surgery. The Braves are my pick for the NL Wildcard going into the season.
That being said, the other potential Wildcard team comes from the NL East as well. The talented pitching rotation of the Philadelphia Phillies could benefit from the return of both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to pre-injury form. All spring training reports indicate that Howard and Utley could be fully healthy before the start of the 2013 season. The real strength fo the Phillies is still in their starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee and if these three hold up for the entire season, the Phillies could surprise in the NL East.
While the Nationals, Braves and Phillies fight it out for the top spot, the other two NL East teams, the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, will be struggling to keep their head above water, especially the Marlins who literally gave up their top end established stars to the Toronto Blue Jays for farmhands and prospects. At least the Mets received a major league ready player in Travis d’Arnaud when they moved R.A. Dickey to the Jays. The Mets and Marlins will be routinely beat up by the divisional and non-divisional rivals this season.
NL Central Winner: Cincinnati Reds are the likely winners of this division. The team traded for Soo-Shin Choo from the Cleveland Indians for Drew Stubbs and Choo should provide the consistent hitting that Drew could not provide. I expect Choo to excel in his new ball park. Choo joins a lineup that contains established hitters like Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Jimmy Rollins. If the Reds are successful in transitioning Aroldis Chapman into a legitimate big league starter, that adds another hard thrower to their starting rotation that is lead off by Johnny Cueto.
The St. Louis Cardinals found a replacement for the department Albert Pujols in Allen Craig and could potentially give the Reds a challenge for the divisional title. The pre-season loss of Chris Carpenter wasn’t great news for a team that probably needs another legitimate arm in their rotation. Consistent performers Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran, along with David Freese, Yadir Molina and Craig, will be expected to provide a significant amount of the Cardinals offense.
The Milwaukee Brewers dont’ have much of a rotation after Yvonni Gallardo and their offense is essentially built around the production offered by Ryan Braun, Cory Hart and Aramis Rameriez. With no real off-season improvement, this team is destined for another third place finish in this division. The Pittsburgh Pirates have two of the most exciting young stars in Andrew McCutchen and Stirling Marte, but really nothing else going for them. The pitching rotation is riddled with holes from A.J. Burnett’s constant injury concerns to implosion that was James MacDonald in the second half of 2012.
The Chicago Cubs will continue to hold onto the title of longest Championship drought in professional sports. 2013 will be a re-building year for this proud franchise. Anthony Rizzo will be given a chance to demonstrate that he really can hit in the bigs.
NL West Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers have easily surpassed the San Francisco Giants as the best team in the senior west division. The Dodgers added Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez to their roster in an attempt to push for the division title late in the 2012 season. Going into 2013, the Dodger lineup may be one of the best in all of the majors, as the additions join Matt Kemp and Andre Either for a full season. The Dodgers rotation that includes Clayton Kershaw is strengthened by the return of Zach Grienke to the NL. Young Korean Hyun-Jin Ryu brings an excellent record from the Korean Baseball League to North America. How this will translate remains to be seen, but if he is capable, he should enjoy a good rookie season that is supported by a great offense. For some reason I think Josh Beckett is going to be great in 2013.
The defending World Series Champion San Franchisco Giants are not short on talent, but on paper their roster doesn’t compare to that of the Dodgers. NL MVP Buster Posey, along with Pablo Sandoval are the heart of this teams offense. Like the Phillies in the central, the Giants biggest strength is their rotation that includes Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, Tim Lincecum and Madison Baumgartner. The Giants will be contenders but they will not be defending their title this season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies and San Diago Padres have not made any significant moves in the off-season to warrent consideration of bumping either the Dodgers or Giants from the top of this division’s standings. For these teams various holes in their lineup and starting rotation prevent them from taking the step to become real contenders.
NL Champions: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Now that the divisional predictions are done, here is the real fun stuff. The following fearless predictions reflect my personal prognostications for the 2013 season and really relate more to fantasy baseball than real baseball.
1. Bryce Harper will have a better season than Mike Trout as a fantasy baseball player;
2. Clayton Kershaw will be National League Cy Young Award Winner;
3. Chase Utley will play more than 110 games this season;
4. The first closer to lose their job will be Jonathan Broxton;
5. Home run production will be up in 2013 from 2012;
6. Matt Kemp will be the NL Triple Crown winner;
7. Tim Lincecum will win 15 games;
8. The Miami Marlins will not win 50 games;
9: The Upton Brothers will combine for 50+ home runs in Atlanta;
Remember, I’m back to do it all again tomorrow, this time for the American League.
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