Around this time of the year many sports websites and sporting magazines’ guides for fantasy baseball are released. For fantasy players this is a great source of information: they often provide player profiles and pre-season rankings that fantasy players can utilize in preparing for their own drafts. Before I continue writing this piece, I want to acknowledge the work of these writers, analysts and statisicians (especially these guys) because their work is what makes playing fantasy baseball a bit easier for a majority of those playing this game. The pre-season rankings they provide is often the only “tool” available to most players. Most of us don’t have the access or time to compile and review the immense amount of data that is needed to play fantasy baseball well. That being said, I have a beef with a majority of the rankings and it’s related to the title of this post…so here we go.
A majority of the rankings found for 2013 have one of the following three players as the #1 fantasy player: Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout represent the consensus top three. For those playing in a rotisserie format probably wouldn’t argue with these rankings. And for the most part I wouldn’t argue with that either. With the 5X5 statistical categories, players who contribute to all 5 eligible categories are more valuable than those who contribute in 4 or 3 categories. Basically, this means that a player like Trout, who contributes across the board is more valuable than any pitcher. A starting pitcher doesn’t contribute saves, and as Cliff Lee owners found out last year, wins are never a guarantee no matter how good the pitcher is – Lee started the 2012 with 13 winless starts, and ended the campaign with a 6-9, with a 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 207 strikeouts. Relivers/Closers may occassionally contribute wins, but again they are a primarily a three category contributor (WHIP, ERA and Saves), with an exceptional few like Greg Kimbrel contributing to well to strikeouts. This being said, rotisserie isn’t the only format being played…a significant number of fantasy leagues use a points based system.
Now I am far more familiar with Yahoo!’s fantasy baseball system than most others, but generally points based leagues (whether played head to head or simply point accumulation) with standard scoring tends to favour starting pitchers vs. positional players. R.A. Dickey was the highest scoring fantasy baseball player in Yahoo! last season. Using the standard scoring system he accumulated over 800+ points for his owners. The highest scoring positional player was Cabrera with 596 points. While no positional player reached the 600 point plateau, among pitchers there was one 800+ point earner (Dickey), 7 pitchers who managed 700+ points and 17 pitchers who amassed more than 600 points. In total 25 pitchers provided more points to fantasy owners than any positional player. Of the 25 pitchers, 4 were relievers, led by Fernando Rodney (700+ points) with the 600 point club including Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Papelbon and Rafael Soriano.
To me it’s great that fantasy baseball players have a vast number of resources to draw from. What the insiders, analysts and writers provide to the fantasy baseball community is essential to what we do, but just who should be the #1 baseball player in a league should be dependent on your league’s scoring format. For me, when I participate in rotisserie leagues the rankings provided by the magazines and websites are generally accurate, but they are far from realistic for points based fantasy leagues. If one were to rank fantasy players for a points based league, I would suggest the following top 10:
1) Clayton Kershaw: The Los Angeles Dodgers lefty is a fantastic pitcher. He is a strikeout artist, who doesn’t walk many batters. In 2011 he produced 882 and followed that up with a 727 point performance in 2012. He should improve on the 2012 numbers given the additions to the Dodgers lineup at the end of the 2012 season, which should produce more offense for Kershaw to work with. The lefty also pitches in Dodger stadium, a pitcher friendly ballpark (ranked 8th in 2012). Kershaw gets the nod as the number one player in points based leagues because he is in the National League, meaning no DH and at bats by opposing pitchers.
2) Justin Verlander: He is the best pitcher in the major leagues today, and has been consistent, producing 700+ point seasons over the past three seasons (he produced a record 968 points in 2011). Verlander is sure to earn his share of wins for the Detroit Tigers, who receive a boost to their already powerful lineup with the return of Victor Martinez. You need to go with consistency and Verlander has been among the best fantasy baseball starter for the past three seasons.
3) Miguel Cabrera: There isn’t a third baseman, or first baseman, in the Majors right now that compares to Cabrera. The 2012 Triple Crown title holder, and American League MVP was impressive and was the highest scoring positional player. What adds to Cabrera’s value is the scarcity of talent in the corner infield positions. It is really Cabrera and everyone else. Being a third baseman further increases Cabrera’s value given the injury risk status of David Wright and Evan Longoria.
4) Ryan Braun: Yes, we all know that there is a potential suspension risk with Braun but without that lingering in your mind, you have to respect and appreciate the production Braun offers to fantasy teams. He’s consistent – even in 2012 after dealing with the positive testing result, Braun accumulated 574 points to his owners. Offensively he’s as good as it gets and his fantasy production ranks up there with Cabrera’s despite playing for a less talented team.
5) Mike Trout: The 2012 AL Rookie of the Year produced an amazing season and rocketted into the top 10. The question is whether Trout can reproduce and/or exceed his production from 2012. What makes Trout even more interesting in fantasy points leagues is the value of stolen bases is often 2 points. While Trout can contribute with the bat in terms of home runs, he adds additional value with his speed and ability to provide doubles and triples.
6) Stephen Strasburg: He infamously shut down by the Washington Nationals after pitching 159.1 innings on September 12, 2012 and amassing with 546 points for his fantasy owners. Strasburg would have easily reached the 600 point plateau had he not been shut down. While the statistical sample size for Strasburg is essentially just over a single season+ (he missed 2011 due to Tommy John Surgery in 2010), he has been nothing but dominate in almost all of his starts thus far in the majors. All signs indicate that Strasburg will join Verlander and Kershaw as the most elite pitchers in the majors after the 2013 season.
7) Robinson Cano: As of this moment, Cano is the only second baseman that I would call “Elite” in the majors. Cano is head and shoulders better than his peers and until someone steps up and produces at the level Cano does, it will be hard to call any other second baseman an elite one. It is true that Aaron Hill provided more points in 2012, but Hill has been inconsistent over the years and his 2012 numbers were probably a career best. I would have ranked Cano higher, but the aging status of the Yankee’s lineup makes him a bit more risky than those in the top 5.
8) Joey Votto: In just 374 at bats in 2012, Votto produced 344 points. He had a shortened season in 2011 due to knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. Had he not missed the time, Votto would have met or exceeded his 2011 point total of 517 points. If healthy, Votto may give Miguel Cabrera some competition as the best corner infielder in the majors.
9) Felix Hernandez: King Felix has signed a fresh contract with the Seattle Mariners and he earned it. Despite playing for a terrible Mariners team in 2012 (and probably 2011, 2010, etc) King Felix consistently ranks among the top 10 in starting pitchers. In 2012, he provided owners with 728, amassing 223 strikeouts. With an improved offense, and the fences of Safeco Field coming in King Felix might have a chance to improve on his 2012 numbers.
10) David Price: Price has been a consistent performer for fantasy owners for the past two seasons. In 2011 he amassed 593 points and registered 727 in 2012. He is a true ace and could be ready to join the elite group of starting pitchers. Price does pitch in the talent heavy American League East. If Tampa Bay can produce offensively for Price in 2013, he should be a solid contributor to fantasy teams.
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