Even when the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl is a lousy game, it’s a great excuse to eat chips- and occasionally, if you care about the outcome, to throw them at your television. Not that I would do such a thing. *pause for my family and my boyfriend to stop laughing* Luckily, this year’s Fiesta Bowl matchup is one of the best of the season, and came close to being the BCS title game pairing.
8:30 p.m. EST, Jan. 3
From: Glendale, AZ
On: ESPN
When Oregon Has The Ball: I hope the Wildcats focused on stamina in offseason drills, because facing the Ducks’ offense requires a lot of it. Don’t be fooled by the fact that Oregon has a freshman starting at quarterback. Marcus Mariota has completed just under 70% of his passes, throwing 30 touchdowns and averaging a shade over 209 yards per game. He’s also run for 609 yards and four touchdowns. His main targets are sophomore De’Anthony Thomas (385 yards, 4 touchdowns) and junior Josh Huff (467 yards, 7 touchdowns). In the run game, senior Kenjon Barner has emerged as a star after backing up LaMichael James (now with the San Francisco 49ers) to start his college career. Barner averages a ridiculous 135.5 yards per game, on a team that averages an insane 323.3 rushing yards per game. Their third- leading rusher, after Barner and Mariota, is De’Anthony Thomas- the same De’Anthony Thomas who’s their second-leading receiver. (ESPN.com does list Thomas as a Running Back on the Ducks’ roster). Keep in mind that the Ducks run a no-huddle offense, and calling it “uptempo” really doesn’t do it justice.
So how does K-State stop this attack? So far only Stanford and their top-notch run defense has been able to eke out a win against the Ducks. The run defense is respectable, although they did give up over 300 yards to Baylor. They don’t give up very many big plays in the passing game, and are tied for 12th in the country with 18 interceptions. The Wildcats have two good pass-rushers in Adam Davis and Meshak Williams, and the team has 31 sacks. My concern for K-State is that, like most defenses, they’re going to get tired chasing Mariota and company around and be prone to mistakes, especially late in the game. Stopping a Mariota OR a De’Anthony Thomas OR a Kenjon Barner is one thing. Stopping ALL of them, when they run a play every 13 seconds or so, is an entirely different animal.
When Kansas State Has The Ball: Wildcat quarterback Collin Klein finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting this season. Klein’s TD:INT ratio of 15:7 isn’t outstanding, but he did also have 22 rushing touchdowns and throw for 2,490 yards, while running for 890 yards. Running back John Hubert led the Wildcats in rushing yards with 892, besting Klein by just two yards. After those two, stopping the run shouldn’t be too difficult for the Oregon defense; the only other players on the team with rushing touchdowns are backup quarterback Daniel Sams (three) and fullback Braden Wilson (one). The Ducks have been pretty good against the run this season only allowing 146 yards on the ground per game, and have three linebackers who were voted to the first- or second-team All-Pac 12.
In the passing game, Klein’s three main targets all have roughly equal numbers: Chris Harper (786 yards, 3 touchdowns), Tyler Lockett (652 yards, 4 touchdowns), and Tramaine Thompson (514 yards, 4 touchdowns). He’ll have to be accurate against the Ducks; they have the most interceptions in the country with 24 (including four returned for touchdowns) and the most return yardage with 469 yards. The key for the Ducks is going to be containing Klein in the pocket; if they let him escape, he’ll burn them more often than not. Klein’s mechanics were a weak spot last year and are much improved, but hurrying him and bringing pressure may still force some errant throws on which the Ducks clearly have the potential to capitalize.
Prediction: This game has the potential to be the best one of the season. If you like scoring, it’s can’t-miss. Going with gut instinct, Oregon 39, Kansas State 33.
